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MemphisWeather.net Forecast Accuracy

The following table demonstrates the accuracy of the MemphisWeather.Net temperature forecasts as compared to various computer weather models for Memphis and the National Weather Service forecast for Memphis. The numbers listed are the average error (in °F) of the temperature forecast by month for each source of data. The rank (1-5) of each forecast is listed in parentheses after the average error, with the most accurate forecast receiving a (1).

Jump to: [ 1998 | 1999 | 2000 | 2001 | 2002 | 2003 | 2004 | 2005 | 2006 | 2007 | 2008 | 2009 | 2010 ]
[ 2011 | 2012 | 2013 | 2014 | 2015 | 2016 | 2017 ]

Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) Aviation Model (AVN) Medium Range Forecast (MRF) NWS, Memphis (NWS) Erik's Forecast
1998
January 3.17 (5) 3.00 (4) 2.96 (3) 2.66 (2) 2.47 (1)
February 3.23 (2) 3.55 (5) 3.50 (4) 3.28 (3) 2.99 (1)
March 3.35 (3) 4.62 (5) 4.60 (4) 3.32 (2) 3.17 (1)
April 3.39 (3) 3.75 (4) 3.92 (5) 3.16 (2) 3.02 (1)
May 2.59 (3) 3.08 (4) 3.24 (5) 2.38 (2) 2.21 (1)
June 2.04 (2) 2.73 (4) 2.78 (5) 2.10 (3) 1.89 (1)
July 2.67 (5) 2.46 (3) 2.52 (4) 2.28 (2) 2.15 (1)
August 1.76 (2) 1.83 (T3) 1.83 (T3) 1.84 (5) 1.74 (1)
September 2.62 (3) 3.75 (4) 3.96 (5) 2.59 (2) 2.47 (1)
October 2.99 (3) 3.86 (4) 3.87 (5) 2.84 (2) 2.81 (1)
November 3.56 (5) 3.03 (3) 3.23 (4) 2.93 (2) 2.92 (1)
December 3.76 (3) 4.21 (4) 4.28 (5) 3.53 (2) 3.37 (1)
YEAR 2.93 (3) 3.32 (4) 3.39 (5) 2.74 (2) 2.60 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) Aviation Model (AVN) Medium Range Forecast (MRF) NWS, Memphis (NWS) Erik's Forecast
1999
January 4.77 (3) 4.78 (4) 4.94 (5) 4.31 (2) 3.91 (1)
February 4.40 (3) 4.25 (2) 4.41 (4) 4.49 (5) 4.15 (1)
March 3.13 (4) 3.08 (3) 2.96 (1) 2.99 (2) 3.29 (5)
April 3.70 (3) 3.93 (4) 4.06 (5) 3.42 (2) 3.07 (1)
May 2.36 (3) 2.41 (4) 2.44 (5) 2.03 (2) 1.84 (1)
June 2.00 (2) 2.75 (4) 2.85 (5) 2.06 (3) 1.86 (1)
July 1.75 (3) 1.78 (4) 1.87 (5) 1.65 (2) 1.35 (1)
August 2.04 (1) 3.08 (4) 3.22 (5) 2.35 (3) 2.20 (2)
September 2.63 (2) 4.27 (4) 4.44 (5) 2.69 (3) 2.58 (1)
October 3.04 (3) 4.10 (4) 4.12 (5) 3.00 (2) 2.87 (1)
November 2.72 (2) 3.13 (4) 3.41 (5) 2.81 (3) 2.66 (1)
December 3.00 (1) 3.35 (4) 3.56 (5) 3.20 (3) 3.10 (2)
YEAR 2.96 (3) 3.41 (4) 3.52 (5) 2.92 (2) 2.74 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) Aviation Model (AVN/MAV) Medium Range Forecast (MRF) NWS, Memphis (NWS) Erik's Forecast
2000
January 4.25 (4) 4.23 (3) 4.30 (5) 3.71 (2) 3.57 (1)
February 3.97 (4) 3.96 (3) 3.98 (5) 3.70 (T1) 3.70 (T1)
March 3.67 (5) 3.41 (T3) 3.33 (2) 3.41 (T3) 3.31 (1)
April 3.15 (3) 3.25 (T4) 3.25 (T4) 3.10 (2) 2.97 (1)
May 2.55 (4) 2.47 (2) 2.62 (5) 2.35 (2) 2.07 (1)
June 2.27 (3) 2.28 (4) 2.31 (5) 2.12 (2) 1.98 (1)
July 1.96 (3) 2.02 (5) 1.90 (2) 1.97 (4) 1.87 (1)
August 2.47 (5) 2.21 (4) 2.11 (3) 1.90 (2) 1.78 (1)
September 3.69 (5) 2.87 (2) 3.04 (3) 3.08 (4) 2.58 (1)
October 2.98 (5) 2.35 (2) 2.42 (3) 2.61 (4) 2.34 (1)
November 3.36 (3) 3.60 (4) 3.80 (5) 3.35 (2) 3.14 (1)
December 3.97 (5) 3.02 (3) 3.47 (4) 2.92 (2) 2.70 (1)
YEAR 3.19 (5) 2.97 (3) 3.04 (4) 2.85 (2) 2.67 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) New Aviation Model (MAV) New Medium Range Forecast (MEX) NWS, Memphis (NWS) Erik's Forecast
2001
January 3.36 (3) 3.52 (5) 3.45 (4) 3.19 (1) 3.27 (2)
February 4.09 (4) 3.83 (3) 4.20 (5) 3.69 (2) 3.36 (1)
March 3.09 (4) 3.04 (3) 3.16 (5) 2.92 (2) 2.83 (1)
April 2.72 (5) 2.25 (2) 2.31 (T3) 2.31 (T3) 2.04 (1)
May 2.53 (3) 2.94 (5) 2.56 (4) 2.39 (2) 2.25 (1)
June 2.14 (5) 1.91 (3) 2.05 (4) 1.88 (2) 1.60 (1)
July 1.64 (1) 2.02 (4) 2.06 (5) 1.81 (3) 1.75 (2)
August 1.74 (3) 1.88 (4) 2.16 (5) 1.73 (2) 1.68(1)
September 2.36 (T3) 2.36 (T3) 2.46 (5) 2.20 (2) 2.14(1)
October 3.05 (5) 2.41 (3) 2.40 (2) 2.58 (4) 2.15(1)
November 2.79 (3) 2.90 (4) 3.26 (5) 2.57 (2) 2.50(1)
December 3.44 (2) 4.29 (4) 4.47 (5) 3.75 (3) 3.43(1)
YEAR 2.75 (3) 2.78 (4) 2.92 (5) 2.58 (2) 2.42 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) New Aviation Model (MAV) New Medium Range Forecast (MEX) NWS, Memphis (NWS) Erik's Forecast
2002
January 5.01 (4) 4.59 (3) 5.03 (5) 3.81 (2) 3.66 (1)
February 2.71 (T1) 3.15 (4) 3.48 (5) 3.12 (3) 2.71 (T1)
March 3.96 (5) 3.58 (2) 3.82 (4) 3.65 (3) 3.35 (1)
April 3.19 (5) 2.82 (2) 2.90 (3) 2.97 (4) 2.47 (1)
May 3.07 (4) 2.69 (2) 3.45 (5) 2.73 (3) 2.60 (1)
June 1.81 (3) 1.82 (4) 1.87 (5) 1.63 (2) 1.39 (1)
July 2.23 (2) 2.24 (3) 2.40 (5) 2.28 (4) 2.03 (1)
August 1.74 (3) 1.59 (2) 1.80 (4) 1.96 (5) 1.55 (1)
September 2.78 (5) 2.40 (2) 2.69 (4) 2.44 (3) 2.02 (1)
October 3.66 (5) 3.17 (2) 3.55 (4) 3.50 (3) 3.03 (1)
November 3.24 (3) 3.34 (4) 3.49 (5) 3.10 (2) 2.79 (1)
December 3.16 (4) 2.96 (3) 3.17 (5) 2.89 (2) 2.61 (1)
YEAR 3.04 (4) 2.86 (3) 3.14 (5) 2.84 (2) 2.52 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) New Aviation Model (MAV) ETA Model (ETA) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2003
January 3.54 (3) 3.59 (4) -- 3.37 (2) 3.15 (1)
February 4.05 (5) 2.85 (T1) -- 3.11 (3) 3.15 (T1)
March 3.45 (3) 3.59 (4) -- 3.23 (2) 3.14 (1)
April 2.77 (3) 2.79 (4) -- 2.59 (2) 2.39 (1)
May 2.56 (4) 2.44 (3) 2.60 (5) 2.08 (2) 1.95 (1)
June 2.72 (4) 2.38 (2) 3.00 (5) 2.62 (3) 2.34 (1)
July 1.48 (2) 1.65 (3) 1.77 (5) 1.69 (4) 1.45 (1)
August 1.82 (4) 1.87 (5) 1.77 (2) 1.81 (3) 1.58 (1)
September 3.18 (5) 2.29 (1) 3.06 (4) 2.80 (3) 2.50 (2)
October 2.85 (4) 2.84 (3) 3.54 (5) 2.73 (2) 2.33 (1)
November 3.84 (4) 3.54 (3) 4.38 (5) 3.26 (2) 2.98 (1)
December 3.26 (4) 2.86 (2) 4.30 (5) 2.90 (3) 2.57 (1)
YEAR 2.96 (4) 2.72 (3) 3.05 (5) 2.68 (2) 2.44 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) Global Forecast System (GFS) ETA Model (ETA) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2004
January 3.78 (4) 3.16 (3) 4.96 (5) 3.10 (2) 3.02 (1)
February 2.77 (3) 2.81 (4) 3.24 (5) 2.69 (2) 2.50 (1)
March 3.79 (5) 3.30 (3) 3.03 (1) 3.36 (4) 3.07 (2)
April 3.01 (5) 2.45 (2) 2.77 (4) 2.56 (3) 2.26 (1)
May 2.60 (5) 1.96 (2) 2.06 (T3) 2.06 (T3) 1.73 (1)
June 1.91 (2) 2.12 (4) 2.17 (5) 1.97 (3) 1.78 (1)
July 1.95 (2) 2.06 (4) 2.07 (5) 2.04 (3) 1.74 (1)
August 2.00 (4) 1.66 (2) 2.17 (5) 1.88 (3) 1.59 (1)
September 2.34 (5) 1.93 (3) 1.90 (2) 1.95 (4) 1.74 (1)
October 4.23 (5) 3.99 (4) 3.53 (3) 3.47 (2) 3.29 (1)
November 3.28 (3) 3.43 (4) 3.20 (2) 3.46 (5) 3.06 (1)
December 3.12 (2) 3.45 (5) 3.27 (3) 3.31 (4) 3.03 (1)
YEAR 2.90 (5) 2.69 (3) 2.86 (4) 2.65 (2) 2.40 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) Global Forecast System (GFS) North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2005
January 3.64 (4) 3.19 (3) 3.65 (5) 3.08 (2) 2.89 (1)
February 2.91 (2) 3.24 (4) 3.05 (3) 3.35 (5) 2.90 (1)
March 3.61 (5) 3.50 (2) 3.52 (T3) 3.52 (T3) 3.19 (1)
April 3.05 (T2) 3.23 (4) 3.31 (5) 3.05 (T2) 3.00 (1)
May 2.33 (1) 2.65 (4) 2.94 (5) 2.61 (3) 2.43 (2)
June 2.09 (2) 2.66 (4) 2.69 (5) 2.19 (3) 2.02 (1)
July 2.22 (5) 1.72 (2) 2.02 (4) 1.89 (3) 1.57 (1)
August 2.46 (4) 2.45 (3) 2.73 (5) 2.11 (2) 1.92 (1)
September 2.81 (5) 2.23 (2) 2.43 (T3) 2.43 (T3) 2.11 (1)
October 2.44 (3) 2.73 (5) 2.60 (4) 2.37 (2) 2.05 (1)
November 3.74 (5) 2.77 (2) 2.93 (4) 2.91 (3) 2.64 (1)
December 3.60 (5) 3.11 (2) 3.50 (4) 3.12 (3) 2.94 (1)
YEAR 2.91 (4) 2.79 (3) 2.95 (5) 2.72 (2) 2.47 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) Global Forecast System (GFS) North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2006
January 3.70 (5) 3.02 (3) 3.20 (4) 2.86 (2) 2.72 (1)
February 3.04 (4) 3.06 (5) 3.00 (3) 2.68 (2) 2.56(1)
March 3.57 (T3) 3.64 (5) 3.46 (2) 3.57 (T3) 3.11(1)
April 3.36 (5) 2.64 (3) 3.26 (4) 2.60 (2) 2.34(1)
May 3.14 (5) 2.83 (4) 2.74 (3) 2.70 (2) 2.45(1)
June 1.92 (1) 1.97 (3) 2.06 (5) 1.94 (2) 2.02 (4)
July 2.09 (4) 1.95 (3) 2.37 (5) 1.81 (2) 1.74 (1)
August 2.40 (5) 1.85 (3) 2.33 (4) 1.83 (2) 1.73 (1)
September 3.51 (5) 2.65 (2) 3.32 (4) 2.79 (3) 2.60 (1)
October 3.51 (5) 2.65 (2) 3.32 (4) 2.79 (3) 2.60 (1)
November 3.68 (5) 3.10 (3) 3.18 (4) 2.82 (T1) 2.82 (T1)
December 3.00 (4) 2.71 (3) 3.37 (5) 2.50 (2) 2.39 (1)
YEAR 3.01 (5) 2.63 (3) 2.90 (4) 2.54 (2) 2.38 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) Global Forecast System (GFS) North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2007
January 3.48 (4) 3.14 (3) 3.49 (5) 3.04 (2) 2.84 (1)
February 3.61 (4) 3.63 (5) 3.16 (2) 3.17 (3) 2.99 (1)
March 3.99 (5) 2.96 (3) 3.11 (4) 2.92 (2) 2.59 (1)
April 2.81 (3) 2.54 (1) 2.92 (5) 2.82 (4) 2.57 (2)
May 2.20 (4) 2.11 (3) 2.41 (5) 1.94 (1) 1.96 (2)
June 2.34 (4) 2.13 (3) 2.76 (5) 1.94 (2) 1.85 (1)
July 2.09 (5) 1.63 (2) 1.99 (4) 1.66 (3) 1.52 (1)
August 2.54 (4) 2.02 (3) 3.39 (5) 1.67 (1) 1.68 (2)
September 3.64 (4) 3.02 (3) 3.76 (5) 2.94 (2) 2.79 (1)
October 3.83 (5) 2.26 (2) 3.34 (4) 2.33 (3) 1.96 (1)
November 2.89 (5) 2.61 (4) 2.55 (3) 2.06 (1) 2.09 (2)
December 3.34 (3) 3.58 (5) 3.41 (4) 3.25 (2) 3.09 (1)
YEAR 3.06 (5) 2.64 (3) 3.03 (4) 2.48 (2) 2.33 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) Global Forecast System (GFS) North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2008
January 3.95 (4) 3.74 (2) 4.07 (5) 3.77 (3) 3.62 (1)
February 4.74 (5) 4.48 (2) 4.64 (3) 4.66 (4) 4.37 (1)
March 3.59 (5) 2.82 (1) 3.49 (4) 3.16 (3) 2.83 (2)
April 3.12 (4) 2.71 (3) 3.13 (5) 2.57 (2) 2.50 (1)
May 2.67 (5) 2.45 (4) 2.29 (2) 2.37 (3) 2.15 (1)
June 1.76 (4) 2.09 (5) 1.73 (3) 1.67 (2) 1.59 (1)
July 1.81 (3) 1.88 (5) 1.85 (4) 1.63 (2) 1.46 (1)
August 2.29 (2) 2.55 (5) 2.30 (3) 2.31 (4) 2.18 (1)
September 2.85 (5) 2.28 (T2) 2.79 (4) 2.28 (T2) 2.23 (1)
October 2.65 (5) 2.40 (3) 2.44 (4) 2.12 (2) 1.99 (1)
November 3.13 (1) 3.55 (5) 3.26 (4) 3.16 (T2) 3.16 (T2)
December 3.49 (4) 4.31 (5) 3.18 (2) 3.22 (3) 2.93 (1)
YEAR 3.00 (5) 2.94 (4) 2.93 (3) 2.74 (2) 2.59 (1)
 
Month Nested Grid Model (NGM) Global Forecast System (GFS) North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2009
January 3.22 (4) 4.09 (5) 2.98 (1) 3.12 (3) 3.05 (2)
February 3.66 (4) 3.94 (5) 2.77 (2) 2.84 (3) 2.73 (1)
March --- 3.18 (4) 2.78 (2) 2.88 (3) 2.73 (1)
April --- 2.56 (4) 2.44 (2) 2.48 (3) 2.38 (1)
May --- 2.26 (3) 2.65 (4) 1.93 (1) 2.05 (2)
June --- 2.32 (4) 2.16 (3) 2.03 (2) 1.92 (1)
July --- 2.46 (4) 2.16 (T2) 2.16 (T2) 1.87 (1)
August --- 2.30 (4) 1.77 (3) 1.76 (2) 1.60 (1)
September --- 2.37 (T2) 2.58 (4) 2.37 (T2) 2.06 (1)
October --- 2.82 (3) 3.48 (4) 2.55 (2) 2.37 (1)
November --- 2.47 (2) 2.86 (4) 2.53 (3) 2.18 (1)
December --- 3.33 (4) 2.87 (3) 2.67 (2) 2.53 (1)
YEAR 3.44 (5) 2.83 (4) 2.63 (3) 2.44 (2) 2.29 (1)
 
Month Global Forecast System (GFS) North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2010
January 3.12 (3) 3.17 (4) 3.00 (2) 2.53 (1)
February 2.98 (4) 2.70 (3) 2.59 (2) 2.39 (1)
March 1.72 (2) 2.60 (4) 1.93 (3) 1.71 (1)
April 2.16 (3) 2.36 (4) 2.00 (2) 1.88 (1)
May 1.70 (T2) 2.14 (4) 1.70 (T2) 1.52 (1)
June 1.63 (3) 1.73 (4) 1.61 (2) 1.56 (1)
July 2.03 (4) 2.01 (3) 1.71 (2) 1.67 (1)
August 1.73 (3) 1.88 (4) 1.72 (2) 1.47 (1)
September 2.55 (4) 2.51 (3) 2.26 (2) 2.06 (1)
October 2.64 (3) 3.28 (4) 2.57 (2) 2.41 (1)
November 3.70 (3) 3.80 (4) 3.30 (2) 3.17 (1)
December 2.88 (3) 3.17 (4) 2.41 (2) 2.30 (1)
YEAR 2.41 (3) 2.61 (4) 2.23 (2) 2.05 (1)
 
Month Global Forecast System (GFS) North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2011
January 3.65 (4) 3.22 (3) 3.13 (2) 2.87 (1)
February 3.68 (4) 3.41 (3) 3.36 (2) 3.25 (1)
March 3.31 (4) 3.07 (2) 3.21 (3) 2.90 (1)
April 2.97 (4) 2.72 (3) 2.70 (2) 2.55 (1)
May 1.87 (T2) 1.87 (T2) 1.95 (4) 1.71 (1)
June 2.13 (4) 1.97 (3) 1.94 (2) 1.78 (1)
July 2.00 (4) 1.92 (3) 1.64 (2) 1.63 (1)
August 3.31 (4) 3.11 (2) 3.15 (3) 2.88 (1)
September 2.31 (2) 2.74 (4) 2.43 (3) 2.22 (1)
October 2.11 (3) 2.63 (4) 1.96 (2) 1.86 (1)
November 3.17 (3) 3.36 (4) 3.04 (2) 2.70 (1)
December 2.42 (2) 2.78 (4) 2.52 (3) 2.23 (1)
YEAR 2.74 (4) 2.73 (3) 2.59 (2) 2.38 (1)
 
Month Global Forecast System (GFS) GFS LAMP (MAV)* North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2012
January 3.16 (3) 2.91 (2) 3.18 (4) 3.31 (5) 2.88 (1)
February 2.74 (4) 2.32 (1) 3.23 (5) 2.59 (3) 2.54 (2)
March 2.64 (3) 2.15 (1) 3.18 (5) 2.71 (4) 2.59 (2)
April 2.55 (3) 2.62 (4) 2.82 (5) 2.26 (2) 2.11 (1)
May 1.76 (2) 1.95 (4) 2.08 (5) 1.89 (3) 1.75 (1)
June 1.79 (4) 1.60 (3) 1.98 (5) 1.49 (2) 1.36 (1)
July 2.17 (3) 2.35 (4) 2.72 (5) 2.06 (2) 1.88 (1)
August 3.35 (5) 3.13 (4) 2.91 (3) 2.87 (2) 2.62 (1)
September 2.13 (T3) 2.00 (2) 2.32 (5) 2.13 (T3) 1.94 (1)
October 2.47 (3) 2.22 (1) 2.85 (5) 2.49 (4) 2.45 (2)
November 2.42 (3) 2.67 (4) 2.87 (5) 2.33 (2) 2.14 (1)
December 2.73 (3) 2.44 (2) 3.28 (5) 2.80 (4) 2.37 (1)
YEAR 2.49 (4) 2.36 (2) 2.79 (5) 2.41 (3) 2.22 (1)
 
Month Global Forecast System (GFS) GFS LAMP (MAV)* North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2013
January 2.97 (4) 2.91 (2) 3.52 (5) 2.96 (3) 2.80 (1)
February 2.82 (4) 2.34 (2) 3.25 (5) 2.32 (1) 2.35 (3)
March 2.97 (4) 2.77 (2) 3.11 (5) 2.84 (3) 2.68 (1)
April 3.23 (5) 2.79 (2) 2.98 (4) 2.80 (3) 2.71 (1)
May 2.63 (5) 2.55 (4) 2.24 (1) 2.37 (3) 2.27 (2)
June 1.95 (4) 1.72 (3) 1.96 (5) 1.53 (2) 1.43 (1)
July 2.35 (5) 1.79 (2) 2.22 (4) 2.00 (3) 1.76 (1)
August 2.14 (5) 1.28 (1) 1.72 (4) 1.67 (3) 1.50 (2)
September 1.84 (3) 1.54 (1) 2.05 (5) 1.92 (4) 1.64 (2)
October 2.30 (4) 1.77 (1) 2.67 (5) 2.18 (3) 2.00 (2)
November 2.52 (3) 2.74 (5) 2.72 (4) 2.24 (2) 2.08 (1)
December 2.60 (2) 2.65 (3) 3.48 (5) 2.69 (4) 2.39 (1)
YEAR 2.53 (4) 2.24 (2) 2.66 (5) 2.29 (3) 2.13 (1)
 
Month Global Forecast System (GFS) GFS LAMP (MAV)* North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2014
January 3.32 (4) 3.58 (5) 3.10 (3) 2.93 (2) 2.78 (1)
February 3.70 (4) 2.87 (1) 3.86 (5) 3.62 (3) 3.26 (2)
March 2.85 (4) 2.75 (1) 3.38 (5) 2.82 (3) 2.76 (2)
April 2.62 (4) 2.84 (5) 2.31 (1) 2.61 (3) 2.41 (2)
May 1.90 (3) 1.86 (2) 2.29 (5) 2.05 (4) 1.61 (1)
June 2.19 (5) 1.35 (1) 1.91 (4) 1.80 (3) 1.61 (2)
July 2.60 (5) 1.53 (1) 2.09 (4) 2.00 (3) 1.92 (2)
August 1.76 (5) 1.28 (2) 1.65 (4) 1.34 (3) 1.27 (1)
September 1.87 (4) 1.63 (1) 1.97 (5) 1.65 (3) 1.64 (2)
October 1.97 (3) 2.08 (4) 2.10 (5) 1.90 (2) 1.66 (1)
November 2.92 (4) 2.62 (2) 3.24 (5) 2.70 (3) 2.51 (1)
December 2.97 (4) 2.72 (3) 3.01 (5) 2.67 (2) 2.39 (1)
YEAR 2.56 (4) 2.26 (2) 2.58 (5) 2.34 (3) 2.17 (1)
 
Month Global Forecast System (GFS) GFS LAMP (MAV)* North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2015
January 3.26 (4) 3.16 (3) 3.29 (5) 2.88 (2) 2.85 (1)
February 2.93 (3) 3.13 (5) 2.99 (4) 2.65 (2) 2.41 (1)
March 3.79 (5) 3.10 (1) 3.64 (3) 3.65 (4) 3.32 (2)
April 2.86 (4) 2.76 (3) 2.98 (5) 2.72 (2) 2.60 (1)
May 2.42 (4) 2.40 (3) 2.46 (5) 2.39 (2) 2.23 (1)
June 1.95 (3) 2.03 (4) 2.18 (5) 1.70 (2) 1.62 (1)
July 1.83 (3) 1.88 (4) 1.98 (5) 1.67 (2) 1.58 (1)
August 1.84 (2) 2.16 (5) 2.15 (4) 1.88 (3) 1.80 (1)
September 1.52 (2) 1.67 (3) 1.95 (5) 1.69 (4) 1.48 (1)
October 2.98 (4) 2.42 (1) 3.65 (5) 2.72 (3) 2.71 (2)
November 2.85 (4) 2.50 (1) 3.10 (5) 2.79 (3) 2.59 (2)
December 2.75 (4) 2.31 (1) 2.80 (5) 2.37 (2) 2.40 (3)
YEAR 2.58 (4) 2.46 (3) 2.76 (5) 2.43 (2) 2.30 (1)
 
Month Global Forecast System (GFS) GFS LAMP (MAV)* North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2016
January 3.16 (5) 2.98 (2) 3.05 (3) 3.06 (4) 2.82 (1)
February 2.70 (3) 2.99 (5) 2.95 (4) 2.63 (2) 2.47 (1)
March 2.96 (4) 2.77 (3) 3.30 (5) 2.51 (2) 2.48 (1)
April 2.69 (3) 2.40 (1) 3.15 (5) 2.73 (4) 2.52 (2)
May 2.27 (3) 2.66 (5) 2.40 (4) 1.99 (2) 1.96 (1)
June 2.88 (4) 2.96 (5) 2.16 (3) 1.96 (1) 2.04 (2)
July 1.94 (T3) 2.66 (5) 1.94 (T3) 1.85 (2) 1.64 (1)
August 2.69 (4) 2.99 (5) 2.35 (3) 2.20 (2) 1.95 (1)
September 2.57 (5) 2.47 (4) 1.96 (3) 1.89 (2) 1.75 (1)
October 1.88 (4) 1.78 (3) 1.96 (5) 1.66 (2) 1.53 (1)
November 2.75 (5) 2.49 (2) 2.61 (4) 2.56 (3) 2.40 (1)
December 2.92 (5) 2.17 (1) 2.79 (4) 2.43 (3) 2.32 (2)
YEAR 2.62 (5) 2.61 (4) 2.55 (3) 2.29 (2) 2.16 (1)
 
Month Global Forecast System (GFS) GFS LAMP (MAV)* North American Mesoscale (NAM) NWS, Memphis (NWS) MWN Forecast
2017
January 3.47 (5) 2.41 (1) 3.01 (3) 3.10 (4) 2.79 (2)
February 2.66 (3) 2.76 (4) 3.00 (5) 2.65 (T1) 2.65 (T1)

* GFS LAMP data only available for 25 hrs. All other forecasts extend out to 60 hours.