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The following table demonstrates the accuracy of the MemphisWeather.Net temperature forecasts as
compared to various computer weather models for Memphis and the National Weather Service forecast
for Memphis. The numbers listed are the average error (in °F) of the temperature forecast by month
for each source of data. The rank (1-5) of each forecast is listed in parentheses after the average error,
with the most accurate forecast receiving a (1).
Jump to: [
1998 | 1999 |
2000 | 2001 |
2002 | 2003 |
2004 | 2005 |
2006 | 2007 |
2008 | 2009 |
2010 | 2011 |
2012 ]
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Aviation Model (AVN) |
Medium Range Forecast (MRF) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 1998 |
| January |
3.17 (5) |
3.00 (4) |
2.96 (3) |
2.66 (2) |
2.47 (1) |
| February |
3.23 (2) |
3.55 (5) |
3.50 (4) |
3.28 (3) |
2.99 (1) |
| March |
3.35 (3) |
4.62 (5) |
4.60 (4) |
3.32 (2) |
3.17 (1) |
| April |
3.39 (3) |
3.75 (4) |
3.92 (5) |
3.16 (2) |
3.02 (1) |
| May |
2.59 (3) |
3.08 (4) |
3.24 (5) |
2.38 (2) |
2.21 (1) |
| June |
2.04 (2) |
2.73 (4) |
2.78 (5) |
2.10 (3) |
1.89 (1) |
| July |
2.67 (5) |
2.46 (3) |
2.52 (4) |
2.28 (2) |
2.15 (1) |
| August |
1.76 (2) |
1.83 (T3) |
1.83 (T3) |
1.84 (5) |
1.74 (1) |
| September |
2.62 (3) |
3.75 (4) |
3.96 (5) |
2.59 (2) |
2.47 (1) |
| October |
2.99 (3) |
3.86 (4) |
3.87 (5) |
2.84 (2) |
2.81 (1) |
| November |
3.56 (5) |
3.03 (3) |
3.23 (4) |
2.93 (2) |
2.92 (1) |
| December |
3.76 (3) |
4.21 (4) |
4.28 (5) |
3.53 (2) |
3.37 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.93 (3) |
3.32 (4) |
3.39 (5) |
2.74 (2) |
2.60 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Aviation Model (AVN) |
Medium Range Forecast (MRF) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 1999 |
| January |
4.77 (3) |
4.78 (4) |
4.94 (5) |
4.31 (2) |
3.91 (1) |
| February |
4.40 (3) |
4.25 (2) |
4.41 (4) |
4.49 (5) |
4.15 (1) |
| March |
3.13 (4) |
3.08 (3) |
2.96 (1) |
2.99 (2) |
3.29 (5) |
| April |
3.70 (3) |
3.93 (4) |
4.06 (5) |
3.42 (2) |
3.07 (1) |
| May |
2.36 (3) |
2.41 (4) |
2.44 (5) |
2.03 (2) |
1.84 (1) |
| June |
2.00 (2) |
2.75 (4) |
2.85 (5) |
2.06 (3) |
1.86 (1) |
| July |
1.75 (3) |
1.78 (4) |
1.87 (5) |
1.65 (2) |
1.35 (1) |
| August |
2.04 (1) |
3.08 (4) |
3.22 (5) |
2.35 (3) |
2.20 (2) |
| September |
2.63 (2) |
4.27 (4) |
4.44 (5) |
2.69 (3) |
2.58 (1) |
| October |
3.04 (3) |
4.10 (4) |
4.12 (5) |
3.00 (2) |
2.87 (1) |
| November |
2.72 (2) |
3.13 (4) |
3.41 (5) |
2.81 (3) |
2.66 (1) |
| December |
3.00 (1) |
3.35 (4) |
3.56 (5) |
3.20 (3) |
3.10 (2) |
| YEAR |
2.96 (3) |
3.41 (4) |
3.52 (5) |
2.92 (2) |
2.74 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Aviation Model (AVN/MAV) |
Medium Range Forecast (MRF) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 2000 |
| January |
4.25 (4) |
4.23 (3) |
4.30 (5) |
3.71 (2) |
3.57 (1) |
| February |
3.97 (4) |
3.96 (3) |
3.98 (5) |
3.70 (T1) |
3.70 (T1) |
| March |
3.67 (5) |
3.41 (T3) |
3.33 (2) |
3.41 (T3) |
3.31 (1) |
| April |
3.15 (3) |
3.25 (T4) |
3.25 (T4) |
3.10 (2) |
2.97 (1) |
| May |
2.55 (4) |
2.47 (2) |
2.62 (5) |
2.35 (2) |
2.07 (1) |
| June |
2.27 (3) |
2.28 (4) |
2.31 (5) |
2.12 (2) |
1.98 (1) |
| July |
1.96 (3) |
2.02 (5) |
1.90 (2) |
1.97 (4) |
1.87 (1) |
| August |
2.47 (5) |
2.21 (4) |
2.11 (3) |
1.90 (2) |
1.78 (1) |
| September |
3.69 (5) |
2.87 (2) |
3.04 (3) |
3.08 (4) |
2.58 (1) |
| October |
2.98 (5) |
2.35 (2) |
2.42 (3) |
2.61 (4) |
2.34 (1) |
| November |
3.36 (3) |
3.60 (4) |
3.80 (5) |
3.35 (2) |
3.14 (1) |
| December |
3.97 (5) |
3.02 (3) |
3.47 (4) |
2.92 (2) |
2.70 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.19 (5) |
2.97 (3) |
3.04 (4) |
2.85 (2) |
2.67 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
New Aviation Model (MAV) |
New Medium Range Forecast (MEX) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 2001 |
| January |
3.36 (3) |
3.52 (5) |
3.45 (4) |
3.19 (1) |
3.27 (2) |
| February |
4.09 (4) |
3.83 (3) |
4.20 (5) |
3.69 (2) |
3.36 (1) |
| March |
3.09 (4) |
3.04 (3) |
3.16 (5) |
2.92 (2) |
2.83 (1) |
| April |
2.72 (5) |
2.25 (2) |
2.31 (T3) |
2.31 (T3) |
2.04 (1) |
| May |
2.53 (3) |
2.94 (5) |
2.56 (4) |
2.39 (2) |
2.25 (1) |
| June |
2.14 (5) |
1.91 (3) |
2.05 (4) |
1.88 (2) |
1.60 (1) |
| July |
1.64
(1) |
2.02 (4) |
2.06 (5) |
1.81 (3) |
1.75 (2) |
| August |
1.74 (3) |
1.88 (4) |
2.16 (5) |
1.73 (2) |
1.68(1) |
| September |
2.36 (T3) |
2.36 (T3) |
2.46 (5) |
2.20 (2) |
2.14(1) |
| October |
3.05 (5) |
2.41 (3) |
2.40 (2) |
2.58 (4) |
2.15(1) |
| November |
2.79 (3) |
2.90 (4) |
3.26 (5) |
2.57 (2) |
2.50(1) |
| December |
3.44 (2) |
4.29 (4) |
4.47 (5) |
3.75 (3) |
3.43(1) |
| YEAR |
2.75 (3) |
2.78 (4) |
2.92 (5) |
2.58 (2) |
2.42 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
New Aviation Model (MAV) |
New Medium Range Forecast (MEX) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 2002 |
| January |
5.01 (4) |
4.59 (3) |
5.03 (5) |
3.81 (2) |
3.66 (1) |
| February |
2.71 (T1) |
3.15 (4) |
3.48 (5) |
3.12 (3) |
2.71 (T1) |
| March |
3.96 (5) |
3.58 (2) |
3.82 (4) |
3.65 (3) |
3.35 (1) |
| April |
3.19 (5) |
2.82 (2) |
2.90 (3) |
2.97 (4) |
2.47 (1) |
| May |
3.07 (4) |
2.69 (2) |
3.45 (5) |
2.73 (3) |
2.60 (1) |
| June |
1.81 (3) |
1.82 (4) |
1.87 (5) |
1.63 (2) |
1.39 (1) |
| July |
2.23 (2) |
2.24 (3) |
2.40 (5) |
2.28 (4) |
2.03 (1) |
| August |
1.74 (3) |
1.59 (2) |
1.80 (4) |
1.96 (5) |
1.55 (1) |
| September |
2.78 (5) |
2.40 (2) |
2.69 (4) |
2.44 (3) |
2.02 (1) |
| October |
3.66 (5) |
3.17 (2) |
3.55 (4) |
3.50 (3) |
3.03 (1) |
| November |
3.24 (3) |
3.34 (4) |
3.49 (5) |
3.10 (2) |
2.79 (1) |
| December |
3.16 (4) |
2.96 (3) |
3.17 (5) |
2.89 (2) |
2.61 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.04 (4) |
2.86 (3) |
3.14 (5) |
2.84 (2) |
2.52 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
New Aviation Model (MAV) |
ETA Model (ETA) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2003 |
| January |
3.54 (3) |
3.59 (4) |
-- |
3.37 (2) |
3.15 (1) |
| February |
4.05 (5) |
2.85 (T1) |
-- |
3.11 (3) |
3.15 (T1) |
| March |
3.45 (3) |
3.59 (4) |
-- |
3.23 (2) |
3.14 (1) |
| April |
2.77 (3) |
2.79 (4) |
-- |
2.59 (2) |
2.39 (1) |
| May |
2.56 (4) |
2.44 (3) |
2.60 (5) |
2.08 (2) |
1.95 (1) |
| June |
2.72 (4) |
2.38 (2) |
3.00 (5) |
2.62 (3) |
2.34 (1) |
| July |
1.48 (2) |
1.65 (3) |
1.77 (5) |
1.69 (4) |
1.45 (1) |
| August |
1.82 (4) |
1.87 (5) |
1.77 (2) |
1.81 (3) |
1.58 (1) |
| September |
3.18 (5) |
2.29 (1) |
3.06 (4) |
2.80 (3) |
2.50 (2) |
| October |
2.85 (4) |
2.84 (3) |
3.54 (5) |
2.73 (2) |
2.33 (1) |
| November |
3.84 (4) |
3.54 (3) |
4.38 (5) |
3.26 (2) |
2.98 (1) |
| December |
3.26 (4) |
2.86 (2) |
4.30 (5) |
2.90 (3) |
2.57 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.96 (4) |
2.72 (3) |
3.05 (5) |
2.68 (2) |
2.44 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
ETA Model (ETA) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2004 |
| January |
3.78 (4) |
3.16 (3) |
4.96 (5) |
3.10 (2) |
3.02 (1) |
| February |
2.77 (3) |
2.81 (4) |
3.24 (5) |
2.69 (2) |
2.50 (1) |
| March |
3.79 (5) |
3.30 (3) |
3.03 (1) |
3.36 (4) |
3.07 (2) |
| April |
3.01 (5) |
2.45 (2) |
2.77 (4) |
2.56 (3) |
2.26 (1) |
| May |
2.60 (5) |
1.96 (2) |
2.06 (T3) |
2.06 (T3) |
1.73 (1) |
| June |
1.91 (2) |
2.12 (4) |
2.17 (5) |
1.97 (3) |
1.78 (1) |
| July |
1.95 (2) |
2.06 (4) |
2.07 (5) |
2.04 (3) |
1.74 (1) |
| August |
2.00 (4) |
1.66 (2) |
2.17 (5) |
1.88 (3) |
1.59 (1) |
| September |
2.34 (5) |
1.93 (3) |
1.90 (2) |
1.95 (4) |
1.74 (1) |
| October |
4.23 (5) |
3.99 (4) |
3.53 (3) |
3.47 (2) |
3.29 (1) |
| November |
3.28 (3) |
3.43 (4) |
3.20 (2) |
3.46 (5) |
3.06 (1) |
| December |
3.12 (2) |
3.45 (5) |
3.27 (3) |
3.31 (4) |
3.03 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.90 (5) |
2.69 (3) |
2.86 (4) |
2.65 (2) |
2.40 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2005 |
| January |
3.64 (4) |
3.19 (3) |
3.65 (5) |
3.08 (2) |
2.89 (1) |
| February |
2.91 (2) |
3.24 (4) |
3.05 (3) |
3.35 (5) |
2.90 (1) |
| March |
3.61 (5) |
3.50 (2) |
3.52 (T3) |
3.52 (T3) |
3.19 (1) |
| April |
3.05 (T2) |
3.23 (4) |
3.31 (5) |
3.05 (T2) |
3.00 (1) |
| May |
2.33 (1) |
2.65 (4) |
2.94 (5) |
2.61 (3) |
2.43 (2) |
| June |
2.09 (2) |
2.66 (4) |
2.69 (5) |
2.19 (3) |
2.02 (1) |
| July |
2.22 (5) |
1.72 (2) |
2.02 (4) |
1.89 (3) |
1.57 (1) |
| August |
2.46 (4) |
2.45 (3) |
2.73 (5) |
2.11 (2) |
1.92 (1) |
| September |
2.81 (5) |
2.23 (2) |
2.43 (T3) |
2.43 (T3) |
2.11 (1) |
| October |
2.44 (3) |
2.73 (5) |
2.60 (4) |
2.37 (2) |
2.05 (1) |
| November |
3.74 (5) |
2.77 (2) |
2.93 (4) |
2.91 (3) |
2.64 (1) |
| December |
3.60 (5) |
3.11 (2) |
3.50 (4) |
3.12 (3) |
2.94 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.91 (4) |
2.79 (3) |
2.95 (5) |
2.72 (2) |
2.47 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2006 |
| January |
3.70 (5) |
3.02 (3) |
3.20 (4) |
2.86 (2) |
2.72 (1) |
| February |
3.04 (4) |
3.06 (5) |
3.00 (3) |
2.68 (2) |
2.56(1) |
| March |
3.57 (T3) |
3.64 (5) |
3.46 (2) |
3.57 (T3) |
3.11(1) |
| April |
3.36 (5) |
2.64 (3) |
3.26 (4) |
2.60 (2) |
2.34(1) |
| May |
3.14 (5) |
2.83 (4) |
2.74 (3) |
2.70 (2) |
2.45(1) |
| June |
1.92 (1) |
1.97 (3) |
2.06 (5) |
1.94 (2) |
2.02 (4) |
| July |
2.09 (4) |
1.95 (3) |
2.37 (5) |
1.81 (2) |
1.74 (1) |
| August |
2.40 (5) |
1.85 (3) |
2.33 (4) |
1.83 (2) |
1.73 (1) |
| September |
3.51 (5) |
2.65 (2) |
3.32 (4) |
2.79 (3) |
2.60 (1) |
| October |
3.51 (5) |
2.65 (2) |
3.32 (4) |
2.79 (3) |
2.60 (1) |
| November |
3.68 (5) |
3.10 (3) |
3.18 (4) |
2.82 (T1) |
2.82 (T1) |
| December |
3.00 (4) |
2.71 (3) |
3.37 (5) |
2.50 (2) |
2.39 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.01 (5) |
2.63 (3) |
2.90 (4) |
2.54 (2) |
2.38 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2007 |
| January |
3.48 (4) |
3.14 (3) |
3.49 (5) |
3.04 (2) |
2.84 (1) |
| February |
3.61 (4) |
3.63 (5) |
3.16 (2) |
3.17 (3) |
2.99 (1) |
| March |
3.99 (5) |
2.96 (3) |
3.11 (4) |
2.92 (2) |
2.59 (1) |
| April |
2.81 (3) |
2.54 (1) |
2.92 (5) |
2.82 (4) |
2.57 (2) |
| May |
2.20 (4) |
2.11 (3) |
2.41 (5) |
1.94 (1) |
1.96 (2) |
| June |
2.34 (4) |
2.13 (3) |
2.76 (5) |
1.94 (2) |
1.85 (1) |
| July |
2.09 (5) |
1.63 (2) |
1.99 (4) |
1.66 (3) |
1.52 (1) |
| August |
2.54 (4) |
2.02 (3) |
3.39 (5) |
1.67 (1) |
1.68 (2) |
| September |
3.64 (4) |
3.02 (3) |
3.76 (5) |
2.94 (2) |
2.79 (1) |
| October |
3.83 (5) |
2.26 (2) |
3.34 (4) |
2.33 (3) |
1.96 (1) |
| November |
2.89 (5) |
2.61 (4) |
2.55 (3) |
2.06 (1) |
2.09 (2) |
| December |
3.34 (3) |
3.58 (5) |
3.41 (4) |
3.25 (2) |
3.09 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.06 (5) |
2.64 (3) |
3.03 (4) |
2.48 (2) |
2.33 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2008 |
| January |
3.95 (4) |
3.74 (2) |
4.07 (5) |
3.77 (3) |
3.62 (1) |
| February |
4.74 (5) |
4.48 (2) |
4.64 (3) |
4.66 (4) |
4.37 (1) |
| March |
3.59 (5) |
2.82 (1) |
3.49 (4) |
3.16 (3) |
2.83 (2) |
| April |
3.12 (4) |
2.71 (3) |
3.13 (5) |
2.57 (2) |
2.50 (1) |
| May |
2.67 (5) |
2.45 (4) |
2.29 (2) |
2.37 (3) |
2.15 (1) |
| June |
1.76 (4) |
2.09 (5) |
1.73 (3) |
1.67 (2) |
1.59 (1) |
| July |
1.81 (3) |
1.88 (5) |
1.85 (4) |
1.63 (2) |
1.46 (1) |
| August |
2.29 (2) |
2.55 (5) |
2.30 (3) |
2.31 (4) |
2.18 (1) |
| September |
2.85 (5) |
2.28 (T2) |
2.79 (4) |
2.28 (T2) |
2.23 (1) |
| October |
2.65 (5) |
2.40 (3) |
2.44 (4) |
2.12 (2) |
1.99 (1) |
| November |
3.13 (1) |
3.55 (5) |
3.26 (4) |
3.16 (T2) |
3.16 (T2) |
| December |
3.49 (4) |
4.31 (5) |
3.18 (2) |
3.22 (3) |
2.93 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.00 (5) |
2.94 (4) |
2.93 (3) |
2.74 (2) |
2.59 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2009 |
| January |
3.22 (4) |
4.09 (5) |
2.98 (1) |
3.12 (3) |
3.05 (2) |
| February |
3.66 (4) |
3.94 (5) |
2.77 (2) |
2.84 (3) |
2.73 (1) |
| March |
--- |
3.18 (4) |
2.78 (2) |
2.88 (3) |
2.73 (1) |
| April |
--- |
2.56 (4) |
2.44 (2) |
2.48 (3) |
2.38 (1) |
| May |
--- |
2.26 (3) |
2.65 (4) |
1.93 (1) |
2.05 (2) |
| June |
--- |
2.32 (4) |
2.16 (3) |
2.03 (2) |
1.92 (1) |
| July |
--- |
2.46 (4) |
2.16 (T2) |
2.16 (T2) |
1.87 (1) |
| August |
--- |
2.30 (4) |
1.77 (3) |
1.76 (2) |
1.60 (1) |
| September |
--- |
2.37 (T2) |
2.58 (4) |
2.37 (T2) |
2.06 (1) |
| October |
--- |
2.82 (3) |
3.48 (4) |
2.55 (2) |
2.37 (1) |
| November |
--- |
2.47 (2) |
2.86 (4) |
2.53 (3) |
2.18 (1) |
| December |
--- |
3.33 (4) |
2.87 (3) |
2.67 (2) |
2.53 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.44 (5) |
2.83 (4) |
2.63 (3) |
2.44 (2) |
2.29 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2010 |
| January |
3.12 (3) |
3.17 (4) |
3.00 (2) |
2.53 (1) |
| February |
2.98 (4) |
2.70 (3) |
2.59 (2) |
2.39 (1) |
| March |
1.72 (2) |
2.60 (4) |
1.93 (3) |
1.71 (1) |
| April |
2.16 (3) |
2.36 (4) |
2.00 (2) |
1.88 (1) |
| May |
1.70 (T2) |
2.14 (4) |
1.70 (T2) |
1.52 (1) |
| June |
1.63 (3) |
1.73 (4) |
1.61 (2) |
1.56 (1) |
| July |
2.03 (4) |
2.01 (3) |
1.71 (2) |
1.67 (1) |
| August |
1.73 (3) |
1.88 (4) |
1.72 (2) |
1.47 (1) |
| September |
2.55 (4) |
2.51 (3) |
2.26 (2) |
2.06 (1) |
| October |
2.64 (3) |
3.28 (4) |
2.57 (2) |
2.41 (1) |
| November |
3.70 (3) |
3.80 (4) |
3.30 (2) |
3.17 (1) |
| December |
2.88 (3) |
3.17 (4) |
2.41 (2) |
2.30 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.41 (3) |
2.61 (4) |
2.23 (2) |
2.05 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2011 |
| January |
3.65 (4) |
3.22 (3) |
3.13 (2) |
2.87 (1) |
| February |
3.68 (4) |
3.41 (3) |
3.36 (2) |
3.25 (1) |
| March |
3.31 (4) |
3.07 (2) |
3.21 (3) |
2.90 (1) |
| April |
2.97 (4) |
2.72 (3) |
2.70 (2) |
2.55 (1) |
| May |
1.87 (T2) |
1.87 (T2) |
1.95 (4) |
1.71 (1) |
| June |
2.13 (4) |
1.97 (3) |
1.94 (2) |
1.78 (1) |
| July |
2.00 (4) |
1.92 (3) |
1.64 (2) |
1.63 (1) |
| August |
3.31 (4) |
3.11 (2) |
3.15 (3) |
2.88 (1) |
| September |
2.31 (2) |
2.74 (4) |
2.43 (3) |
2.22 (1) |
| October |
2.11 (3) |
2.63 (4) |
1.96 (2) |
1.86 (1) |
| November |
3.17 (3) |
3.36 (4) |
3.04 (2) |
2.70 (1) |
| December |
2.42 (2) |
2.78 (4) |
2.52 (3) |
2.23 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.74 (4) |
2.73 (3) |
2.59 (2) |
2.38 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS, Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2012 |
| January |
3.16 (3) |
2.91 (2) |
3.18 (4) |
3.31 (5) |
2.88 (1) |
|
|
