Forecast accuracy for January and February 2010

The MWN Forecast began 2010 where 2009 left off – with the most accurate temperature and dewpoint forecasts for the month of January as compared to the available computer models and the National Weather Service. For the month, the average temperature error in all MWN forecasts was 2.53 degrees, or almost half of a degree better than the NWS and 0.59-0.64 degrees better than the GFS and NAM computer models. For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast was also the best of the data sources at 3.29 degrees average error.

The month of February continued the streak of highly accurate forecasts, once again producing more accurate temperature and dewpoint forecasts than the available models and the NWS. For the month, the average temperature error for MWN forecasts was 2.39 degrees, as compared to the NWS at 2.59 degrees and the NAM and GFS at 2.70 and 2.98 degrees, respectively. The average dewpoint error of 2.66 degrees was also 0.20 degrees better than the closest forecast model.

More detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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