MWN forecast accuracy for March 2010


March is typically a difficult month to forecast as large temperature and moisture swings are possible over a short time period and a miscalculation in the timing of a frontal passage by just a few hours can introduce significant error in temperature and dewpoint forecasts. MWN managed to keep these significant errors to a minimum in March and by the smallest of margins bested the computer model forecasts with respect to high and low temperature forecasts for the month.

For the month, the average temperature error in all MWN forecasts was 1.71 degrees, or 0.01 degrees better than the Global Forecast System (GFS) model, taking first in the temperature category. For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast was also the best of the data sources at 2.81 degrees average error, again beating the GFS by only 0.03 degrees.

More detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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