Climate Summary and MWN Forecast Accuracy for June 2010

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Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
Thanks to a very persistent summery high pressure regime and a lack of significant frontal systems, the Mid-South saw one of it’s warmest Junes on record. In fact, by the end of the month, Memphis Int’l Airport had seen 41 consecutive days of high temperatures at or above average (every day in June) and Memphians also sweated through a 17-day streak from the 12th through the 28th with high temps at or above 94 degrees.

For the month, the average temperature was 84.6 degrees, which was 5.9 degrees above normal and tied for the second warmest June on record (behind 1953 and tied with 1952). The average high temperature was 93.6 degrees with only four days under 90, all in the first week of the month. The maximum temperature for the month was 98 degrees on the 21st and 22nd and the lowest was 68 on the 7th. A record warm minimum temperature was set on the 19th, when the low dropped to only 80 degrees.

In addition, the wet pattern the Mid-South experienced in April and especially May came to a screeching halt in June for most locations. Though there were scattered thunderstorms during parts of the month, with some areas of Shelby County like Collierville and Germantown seeing localized flooding from slow-moving airmass thunderstorms, the recording stations at Memphis International Airport, the NWS office, and WXLIVE! in Bartlett were very dry.

There were only three days during the month in which measurable precipitation fell at the airport (five additional days saw a trace), which recorded a total of just 0.31″ of precipitation for the month and went down as the 3rd driest June on record. The total rainfall after June 9th was a trace. Average precipitation for June is 4.30″. The peak wind gust was 43 mph, also on the 9th. Click here for the NWS climate recap for June.

Bartlett, TN
Bartlett also saw a very hot and dry month. The average temperature for June at the WXLIVE! station in north Bartlett was 82.9 degrees with a maximum of 98.7 on the 25th and a minimum of 63.5 degrees on the 7th. The high temperature reached 94 or higher in Bartlett on 18 consecutive days (12th through 29th) and failed to reach 90 on only 4 days.

After a record 15″ of rain in May, June dried out quickly as WXLIVE! recorded only 2.19″ of rain for the month, about half of a normal June. Over half of that total fell on the 3rd (1.29″) in a thunderstorm. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 2.33″ in June. There were six days with measurable precipitation, but only one in the last 20 days of June. The peak wind gust was 27 mph on the 9th. Click here for a daily statistical recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of June, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.56 degrees, the best among all compared computer models and the National Weather Service (by 3%+). MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). Exactly 80% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of actual. For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast was also the best of the data sources at 1.50 degrees average error, more than 0.20 degrees (14%) better than the next most accurate source. More detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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