Computer models merging towards a possible solution?


Thought I’d throw a little more data at those of you who like to see the computer models in action.  Below is the output from two different models.  First, the evening NAM run, which seems to finally be getting it’s act together after insisting we would see little to no snow up until now. Below that, the mid-day GFS, which has been fiarly consistent in it’s message of late and did better with the last couple of winter storms.

The graphs below are from a program called BUFKIT and I have chosen to display the temperature and dewpoint trends and precipitation amounts.  The scales are on the right and these actually read from RIGHT to LEFT (so the frather left you go, the farther out in time you are).  The NAM shows light rain overnight and through the day tomorrow, switching to snow around 6pm and ending around 1am.  Each vertical bar is 1 hour.  It totals about 2.0-2.5″ of snow depending on the calculation used to determine snow amounts.

The second graph, from the GFS, indicates light rain through the overnight and morning hours, switching to sleet by early afternoon, then snow by late afternoon.  It gives the Memphis area 2.5-3″ of snow by early morning Wednesday.  This is the earliest the GFS has switched Memphis to frozen precipitation and is too early in my opinion.  However, it is interesting that both now give us enough to cover the ground once again.  We’ll see how it plays out, but DEFINITELY something to keep an eye on!

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