February climate data and MWN Forecast accuracy


Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN
Overall, February was warmer than average, snowier than average, but drier than average in Memphis. Despite the snow, total precipitation was an inch below normal and temperatures actually averaged over 2 degrees above normal due in large part to a warm spell the last half of the month in which high temperatures routinely hit 70 degrees. As of March 1, the region was classified as being in a moderate drought, which is an improvement over severe conditions in recent months.

The average February temperature was 47.1 degrees, which was 2.2 degrees above normal. The average high temperature was 56.9 degrees and the average low was 37.4. Low temperatures dropped to freezing or below 12 times during the month, while four days saw high temperatures at or below freezing (2nd-3rd and 9th-10th). The lowest temperature for the month was 11 degrees on the 11th and the highest temperature was 77 on the 20th and 24th.

Precipitation for the month of February totaled 3.36″, or 0.95″ below the normal of 4.31″. There were nine days with measurable rainfall and the maximum 24-hour total was 1.25″ on the 23rd-24th. Snowfall measured 3.3″ for the month, bringing the seasonal total to 9.7″, which is 3.5″ above normal. Most of the snow fell on the 9th (3.1″) while 0.2″ fell on the 7th and snowflakes were recorded each day from the 2nd through the 5th. The peak wind gust was 54 mph on February 1st with an average wind speed for the month of 10.1 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International for February .

Bartlett, TN
The average temperature for February at the WXLIVE! station in north Bartlett was 46.0 degrees with a maximum of 77.6 on the 20th and a minimum of 8.3 degrees on the 11th — a 69 degree difference between maximum and minimum!

February precipitation ended below normal with a total of 3.38″. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 3.46″. Two days saw measurable snow which totaled 4.1″ for the month. These included 1.8″ between 7-11:30am on the 7th and 2.3″ over several hours (mainly in the afternoon) on the 9th. The peak wind gust was 36 mph on the 1st. Average relative humidity was 66%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy
For the month of February, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 3.25 degrees, lower than all compared computer models, including the National Weather Service. Over 48% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast beat all data sources, averaging 3.55 degrees error and falling within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint nearly 50% of the time. Detailed accuracy statistics can be found here.

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