August 2011 Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy


While the June-July period averaged 84.9 degrees (tied with 1980 as the warmest June-July on record in Memphis), August’s temperatures were slightly cooler than July overall and brought the “summer of 2011” average temperature down slightly to 84.6 degrees, which ranks as the 3rd hottest summer in recorded Memphis history behind 1980 and 2010. Record temperatures for the month are listed in the table below, followed by the Top 5 warmest summers. Precipitation was near average for the month.

Date Record Temperature
August 1 Maximum Low 83° F
August 2 Maximum Low 81° F
August 2 Maximum 101° F
August 3 Maximum 106° F
August 23 Maximum 80° F (T)

Top 5 Warmest Summers in Memphis (June/July/August)
1. 1980 – 85.6° F
2. 2010 – 85.4° F
3. 2011 – 84.6° F
T4. 1954 – 84.2° F
T4. 2007 – 84.2° F

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of August was 83.9 degrees, which was 1.9 degrees above normal and just over 2 degrees cooler than July. The average high temperature was 93.0 degrees and the average low was 74.9. The coolest temperature of the month was 67 degrees on the 15th and the highest temperature was 106 degrees on the 3rd.

Precipitation for the month of August totaled 3.08″, which was 0.20″ above average. Climatologically, August is the driest month of the year in Memphis.  There were 9 days with measurable rainfall; 3 of those measured more than one-half inch.  The greatest 24-hour total was 0.85″ on the 20th-21st. The peak wind gust was 52 mph in a thunderstorm on the 12th with an average wind speed for the month of 6.0 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average August temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions in north Bartlett was 81.2 degrees with a maximum of 105.1 degrees on the 3rd and a minimum of 59.9 degrees on the 15th.  August precipitation was about half an inch less than the Memphis airport, totaling 2.51″. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 2.42″. The peak wind gust was 25 mph on the 12th. Average relative humidity was a high 72%. Click here for a daily recap on

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of August, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 2.88 degrees, lower than all compared computer models and the NWS by 7% or more. Over 50% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast beat all data sources, averaging 2.36 degrees error and falling within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint nearly 60% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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