October 2011 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy


September saw a significant cooldown from the record heat of the summer of 2011 and October continued the trend, once again averaging below normal temperature-wise for the month. It was also a very dry month as the airport recorded only 32% of a typical October rainfall. No daily temperature or precipitation records were set during the month.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of October was 62.7 degrees, which was 1.4 degrees below normal. The average high temperature was a comfortable 74.6 degrees and the average low was 50.8. The coolest temperature of the month was 36 degrees on the 29th, while the highest temperature was 86 degrees set on the 6th, 16th, and 17th.

Precipitation for the month totaled 1.28″, which was 2.70″ below average.  There were just 6 days with measurable rainfall and only 3 days with more than 0.10″. The greatest 24-hour total was 0.50″ on the 27-28th. The peak wind gust was 39 mph on the 16th with an average wind speed for the month of 6.4 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average October temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions in north Bartlett was 58.7 degrees with a maximum of 86.1 degrees on the 17th and a minimum of 29.7 degrees on the 29th.  October precipitation was slightly less than the Memphis airport, totaling just 1.05″, which was the driest month at Cirrus Weather Solutions since September 2010. A co-located manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program measured 0.98″. The peak wind gust was 22 mph on the 26th. Average relative humidity was 69%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of October, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.86 degrees, lower than all compared computer models, including the NWS. Nearly 77% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (or 2.5 days). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast beat all data sources, averaging 1.95 degrees error and falling within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint almost 74% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

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