Roller-coaster temps and the first rain chances of 2012

With the first week of 2012
underway, a temperature roller coaster has been the highlight in Mid-South
weather so far. An arctic front brought frigid temperatures to
the area with readings dipping into the teens in suburbs and outlying areas on
Tuesday morning, but the Mid-South has quickly settled back into a milder
pattern as 60s made a return this afternoon. That milder weather looks to
continue for a few more days, but along with that will be the first rain
chances of the new year, and more Arctic air may not be far behind either.
The nice weather looks to peak tomorrow afternoon as high temperatures climb into the mid to upper 60s,
nearly 20 degrees above average. Clouds will be increasing as the latest
cold front begins to approach, but dry conditions should prevail. Rain chances begin by evening though as a few light showers may begin developing. As the
cold front crosses the metro during the day Saturday, chances for light rain
continue. Fortunately, moisture over the area will be limited, so it will be
far from a wash-out. The cold front won’t have much cold air associated with it
either, so while temperatures will cool some Saturday night into Sunday, they’ll
still remain a bit above average.
NWS forecast map for Saturday morning shows a cold front as it
moves through the metro area.

Following the cold front’s
passage through the metro, models begin to diverge on a possible stall of the
boundary just south of the area, complicating the forecast through the early
part of next week. Some models show the front stalling just south of the area,
which may keep low rain chances in the area through Sunday or early Monday,
though any amounts would continue to be on the light side.

model forecast for Tuesday evening depicts low pressure tracking northeast
through the area.

Regardless of where the front stalls
early in the week, the overall weather pattern will begin to shift mid-week as
new low pressure develops to our southwest Tuesday into Wednesday. This low
pressure area will track northeast through the area, and rain looks to be a
good bet, with amounts potentially more significant this go-around.

Meanwhile, as the low sweeps past
the area Thursday, a new arctic front will be fast approaching, and our next
cold snap looks to be behind it. The first effects are likely to be felt
Thursday as high temperatures fall back into the 40s, but some model
indications show even colder weather may come by next weekend. At this point,
details are still sketchy, but you can bet we’ll keep you up-to-date on
MemphisWeather.Net as the forecast evolves over the next several days!
–Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

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