More rain in the forecast in the days ahead

After Sunday night’s severe
weather event (we’ll have a recap soon here on the MWN Blog), the weather in
the metro area has turned much quieter over the last 48 hours. However, our
next weather maker is beginning to organize to our southwest, and will begin
making its impact felt tonight.
As an upper level disturbance
approaches the area, with moisture levels increasing from the Gulf of Mexico,
light rain will move into the area late tonight, most likely after Midnight. Rainfall
will continue into at least Wednesday morning, meaning residents should expect
a wet morning commute. Overall rain amounts should remain light, no greater
than a half inch, and thunderstorms are not expected either as the Mid-South
will stay on the “cool” side of a warm front to our south across Louisiana and
Central Mississippi.
While we may see a brief break in
rainfall during the afternoon hours Wednesday, surface low pressure organizing
over South Texas will begin slowly pushing northeast toward the area by
Wednesday night. Additionally, the warm front to our south will begin advancing
northward closer to the area. As this occurs, more rainfall will break out, that
will persist into much of the day Thursday. Rainfall amounts during this wave
will likely be more significant, up to an inch. With the warm front pushing as
close as North Mississippi during this time, a few thunderstorms may develop,
but any threat for strong storms should remain south of the metro with the warm
front not expected to pass through, unlike this past Sunday.
NWS forecast rainfall amounts through Thursday evening, with
up to an inch and a half possible in the metro.
By Thursday evening, with the
system pushing off to our southeast, rain will begin tapering off, with
decreasing clouds expected by Friday along with slightly cooler temperatures.
Between tonight and Thursday evening, total rainfall amounts upwards of an inch
and a half are possible (see above image).
–Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

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