Warm temperatures are back, but what about rain chances?

Welcome to MWN Blog post #950! 

After a stretch of below
normal temperatures for the last few days in the Mid-South, the warmth came
back in a hurry over the last 24 hours as strong and gusty southwest winds sent
the numbers back above the 80 degree mark, with much higher humidity levels
returning as well.  It looks as if the
warmer weather will be sticking around a while, but is there any significant
rainfall chances in the offing as the Memphis area now approaches an 8-inch
rainfall deficit for the year?

While a few weak systems
have brought isolated to scattered rainfall to the area over the last several
weeks, the last significant and widespread rainfall (greater than an inch) was
way back on March 16! This pattern is in sharp contrast to one year ago this
week, as a multi-day historic severe weather outbreak and flooding event began
to unfold across the Mississippi Valley and Southeast U.S.
Looking ahead, a cold
front will be approaching from the north on Thursday. Unfortunately, the cold
front looks to stall just north of the area, meaning the best rain chances may
again avoid the metro area. Nevertheless, as the front makes it closest
approach late Thursday afternoon through Thursday night, a few thunderstorms
may develop and drift into parts of the area, with those north of I-40 having
the best risk of seeing rain. Still, significant and widespread rainfall is not
expected during this period.
WRF Model for Thursday evening. Scattered t’storms will likely be ongoing near front, with best chances north of Memphis metro.

This front will meander
north of the area through Friday and Saturday, likely keeping conditions dry
here though an isolated risk for a shower or storm remains. The front will make
another push into the area on Sunday, and models are showing a bit more
progress on this attempt, meaning our best rain chances arrive then with
scattered showers and thunderstorms possible. However, it again doesn’t appear
to be shaping up to be an event that will put a major dent in the growing rainfall deficit.

NWS weather forecast map for Sunday morning, with near-stationary front close to metro, bringing our best rain chances.
Finally, in a reversal
from thinking a few days ago, this front then looks to lift back north of the
region at the start of next week. This means a cooldown earlier thought
possible appears off the table, with temperatures for the next seven days reaching the 80s and mild overnights expected as well. More scattered rain
chances may enter the picture around next Tuesday and Wednesday, but we may be
waiting for next widespread one-inch or greater rainfall event for a while
longer.
Stay with MemphisWeather.Net for the very latest on rain chances in the days ahead. You can find the full and updated forecast details on MWN’s forecast page.
–Kevin Terry, MemphisWeather.Net

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For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit MemphisWeather.net on the web, m.memphisweather.net on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

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