Thursday morning update on today’s potential severe weather

The past couple of days (Tuesday and Wednesday), we’ve discussed the possibility of morning storms today that could “scrub” the atmosphere of instability and greatly reduce our chances of severe weather today.  If you have looked outside, you see that that didn’t happen. Here is the setup as of 7am this morning:

Weather setup for Thursday morning

Forecast models

Two clusters of storms are bypassing the region, with a trough and frontal boundary moving towards the area from the northwest as the day goes on. We’ll be watching east AR for thunderstorm development late this morning that would affect the metro.  Computer models are in two camps this morning. High-res models generally think that we’ll see a round of storms early this afternoon out ahead of the front, with another potential round this evening as the front actually moves through around 9-10pm. The legacy models lean more towards a round of storms later in the afternoon with very little along the front that arrives later, closer to midnight.

Severe Weather Chances

As for our chances of severe weather, a Slight Risk is posted for the entire metro. The graphics below highlight the risk area as well as the probabilities of various severe weather types.  Our primary threat will be damaging straight-line wind (a 30% chance of 58+ mph wind within 25 miles of your location over west TN and north MS), with a secondary threat of severe (1″) hail. Given the lack of a favorable low level wind profile and barely-sufficient low level moisture, the tornado threat is hardly  worth mentioning.

Severe weather graphics for Thursday

Mid-Southerners should be prepared for the possibility of strong to severe thunderstorms from lunchtime through the evening.  Behind the front, MUCH cooler weather is expected Friday with highs only in the mid 70s.  Lows Saturday morning will be in the 50s with highs again below normal (in the lower 80s) on Saturday.

MWN will provide nowcasting throughout the day on our social channels listed below.  It’s also a good time to pick up our mobile app for Android or iPhone with StormWatch+, which will alert you if your location is in the path of a severe thunderstorm.

Stay weather aware and have your umbrellas handy today!  We could certainly use some rain!

For weather information for Memphis and the Mid-South, where and when you need it, visit on the web, on your mobile phone, download our iPhone or Android apps, or visit us on Facebook or Twitter.

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