Autumn weather on the weekend menu!

After suffering through a seemingly-unending summer, Mid-Southerners should be licking their chops over a gorgeous fall-like forecast that begins this weekend and extends into next week.  The abrupt weather change is due to the first true Canadian front of the year pushing through the region.

As one might expect with temperatures in the mid 90s ahead of the front, it could be a little rough making the transition and indeed the Storm Prediction Center believes so as well. The (UPDATED) Friday convective outlook puts the Memphis metro near the southern edge of a slight risk zone for the possibility of severe thunderstorms (see map below).

UPDATED: Storm Prediction Center convective outlook outlining an area of potential severe weather tonight 

We’ll have to get through one more hot day first though as these storms will hold off until after dark tonight. Highs in the upper 90s and heat indices near 105 are expected again ahead of the front.  As the cold front moves through (likely between 9pm and midnight) a line of storms is expected. Some of these storms could be severe, especially to the north and west of Memphis, with damaging wind and severe hail the main threats. Behind the storm line, showers and embedded non-severe thundershowers are expected to continue overnight, bringing as much as 1-2″ of rain to the metro.

Projected rainfall totals Friday and Friday night. 1-2″ is possible across most of the local area.
Saturday morning surface map showing Canadian cold front south of the metro

By Saturday, most of the rain will be gone, clouds will move out in the morning, and a brisk north wind will feed in cool air, causing highs to remain in the 70s on Saturday!  Sunday will be just as nice, and even cooler in the morning, with lows in the 50s area-wide (including in the city of Memphis) and highs generally near 80. A slight warming trend will be expected next week, but we’ll see lots of sunshine with no rain in the MWN Forecast.  Plan to get out and take care of the outdoor chores that have been neglected, and perhaps even head over to the Germantown Fest for what should be a GREAT festival weekend!

As always, MWN will nowcast the storms that affect the area tonight on our social media feeds linked below.  Also, since severe weather is possible after dark, it would be a good time to download the MWN mobile app for iPhones or Android devices (link below) and activate StormWatch+ so that you can be alerted to any severe weather – but ONLY if it is going to impact your location!  While I may not know where you live, StormWatch+ does!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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