April 2013 Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy


Cold and wet. Temperatures averaged below normal during April, while precipitation was above normal.  For the year, precipitation is above normal by almost 5″ and more than twice as much rain has fallen in the first 4 months of 2013 as compared to 2012.  Temperatures so far in 2013 are averaging about one degree below normal.  Severe weather occurred on April 27 as an EF-1 tornado touched down in far northwest Fayette Co in the community of Belmont. However, for the month, only two tornadoes occurred in the entire NWS-Memphis warning area (map of area below), despite historically being the most active tornado month in the Mid-South.  Climate details for April can be found below.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of April was 61.2 degrees, or 1.7 degrees below normal. The average high temperature was 71.7 degrees and the average low was 50.6. The coolest temperature of the month was 39 degrees on the 25th, while the highest temperature was 86 degrees on the 17th. A record high minimum temperature record was set on April 16th when the low only dropped to 69 degrees.

Precipitation for the month totaled 6.88″, which was 1.38″ above average. There were 10 calendar days with measurable rainfall, five of which recorded at least 0.5″ and two which saw 1″ or more. The maximum 24-hour rainfall was 3.01″ on the 10th-11th. The peak wind gust was 43 mph from the northwest on the 18th with an average wind speed for the month of 8.9 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

West Tennessee in particular experienced a very wet April

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average April temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions was 60.4 degrees with a maximum of 87.9 degrees on the 17th and a minimum of 34.9 degrees on the 25th. April precipitation measured 6.76″ via the Cirrus automated gauge and 7.03″ in a manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program. The measured peak wind gust was 24 mph on the 18th. Average relative humidity was 71%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of April, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 2.71 degrees, lower than all available computer model data and the National Weather Service forecasts. More than 52% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast averaged 2.77 degrees error and fell within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint over 52% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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