Back-to-school weather forecast


With many school districts around the Memphis metropolitan area starting back this week, not the least of which is the Shelby County district, we offer this look ahead to help parents (and kids) figure out just how to dress to fit the weather. Unfortunately, a pattern similar to what we’ve experienced for long stints this summer continues – which will mean rain possibilities to start the week, though negligible chances of severe weather.

For Monday, we expect a day that could be very similar to Saturday with a weakening thunderstorm complex moving into the area from northern AR early in the day. For those with early bus pick-ups, the rain may not be here yet by 6am-7am, but check StormView Radar before you send the kids out. An umbrella might be a good idea. Rain chances increase for later school start times and could very well be in the area by 9am. Rain could very well keep kids indoors during recess or other outdoor activities during the day, though most of it should be gone by school dismissal times.  Temps will remain in the 70s to lower 80s where it rains, but humidity will be high and any sun in the afternoon will cause temps to rise into the upper 80s with high humidity.

The high-resolution NAM computer model predicts rain and some storms around the metro by 10am Monday

On Tuesday, a repeat scenario is possible, but the chances look a little less likely. These storm systems can be hard to predict more than 24-36 hours in advance so the crystal ball is a little less clear! Plan for at least some chance of rain on Tuesday (right now we have 30%), warmer temperatures (especially if there is less rain than Monday – we’ve got 93 for a high), and humid weather continuing.

The high-res NAM model shows chances of rain Tuesday morning with most precip north and east of the metro

Wednesday and Thursday will likely be the warmest days of the week with rain chances at their lowest – just isolated afternoon chances. High pressure will push temperatures into the mid 90s with heat indices possibly reaching the 104 mark where outdoor activities are affected per local district policies. Friday is tough to call, but could end up as warm and sticky as mid-week.  Stay tuned.

Stay updated with MWN!

We invite parents, teachers, and staff to check the MWN Forecast regularly for the latest weather information, as well as liking us on Facebook or following us on Twitter for even more frequent updates (links below).  Also, our mobile app for Android devices and iPhones/iPads puts the MWN Forecast and regular Twitter updates (even if you aren’t on Twitter), as well as full-screen StormView Radar, in your pocket or purse for quick access. A download link is provided below.

Custom weather alerts for your school campus

For principals and other administrators, is able to provide customized StormWatch+ warning services specific to your school campus. We deliver the weather alerts the way you want them – you pick the weather warning types, the hours of the day you wish to receive them, and the delivery method you want and we’ll send them for your specific school location! This customized StormWatch+ delivery service has been in use for a couple of years at select trial locations in Shelby County and has delivered exactly as promised! Contact for further details.

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