August 2013 Climate Data and MWN Forecast Accuracy

The last month of climatological summer (June-July-August) was slightly below normal for both temperatures and rainfall. This resulted in temperatures for the June-August period averaging 1.0 degrees below normal with total precipitation about 0.25″ above normal. The highest temperature of the summer was tied twice this month at 97 degrees. In fact, there were no 100 degree days for the summer of 2013!  Climate details for August can be found below.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

The average temperature for the month of August was 81.1 degrees, or 0.9 degrees below normal. The average high temperature was 89.6 degrees and the average low was 72.5 degrees. The coolest temperature of the month was 60 degrees on the 15th, while the highest temperature was 97 degrees on the 30th and 31st.  For the year, Memphis is 1.1 degrees below average temperature-wise.

Precipitation for the month totaled 2.17″, which was 0.71″ below the average monthly rainfall. No daily rainfall records were set.  There were eight calendar days with measurable rainfall, only two of which recorded at least 0.5″ and one which saw 1″ or more.  Through August 31, annual precipitation at Memphis is over 10.5″ above the 30-year average.

The maximum 24-hour rainfall was 1.07″ on the 11th. The peak wind was a 35 mph thunderstorm-induced gust from the west on the 12th with an average wind speed for the month of 5.8 mph. Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions, Bartlett, TN

The average August temperature at Cirrus Weather Solutions was 78.4 degrees with a maximum of 97.0 degrees on the 31st and a minimum of 54.9 degrees on the 15th. August precipitation measured 3.37″ via the Cirrus automated gauge and 3.65″ in a manual gauge used for the CoCoRaHS program. The measured peak wind gust was 16 mph on the 12th. Average relative humidity was a muggy 82%. Click here for a daily recap on MemphisWeather.net.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

For the month of August, the average temperature error in all MWN temperature forecasts was 1.50 degrees, lower than all available computer data models and the National Weather Service forecasts with the exception of the LAMP short-range model, which only extends 25 hours into the future. MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Nearly 85% of the MWN temperature forecasts for the month were within 2 degrees of the actual temperature. For dewpoint accuracy, the MWN forecast averaged 1.64 degrees error and fell within 2 degrees of the actual dewpoint 82% of the time. Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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