Another strong front brings a period of wet, then cold, weather

The big story for today’s blog is the major change in the weather with Friday’s cold front. Prior to the cold front, expect above average temperatures leading up to a wet Friday. With the passage of the cold front, expect things to cool down quickly with temperatures becoming well below normal. These are the extremes that are to be expected with fall, but lets paint the whole picture.

For tomorrow expect warm conditions with much more clouds than earlier this week. Cannot rule out a stray shower by the afternoon but the majority of the frontal precipitation will hold off until late Thursday night into Friday morning.

GFS model 6-hr precip totals from 6am-noon Friday

When it does start raining, expect it to get quite wet with one weather model showing well over an inch of rain in just 6 hours Friday morning. Exact timing and totals should be taken with a grain of salt, but it is worth pointing out the possibility with plenty of moisture present during the day on Friday.

Weather Prediction Center forecast total rainfall from 6pm Wednesday to 6pm Friday.  The metro is forecast for 1.5-2.0″.

The Weather Prediction Center is going with right around 1.75 inch totals for the metro. This could change, but as of now it looks like a decent soaking is in store for Friday. Severe weather is not expected on Friday, with even a rumble of thunder being unlikely due to the lack of an unstable airmass during the precipitation.

Departure from normal temperatures valid Sunday at noon, according to the GFS model

Once the cold front and associated rain clears the area Friday night into Saturday morning, expect temperatures to drop quickly. A stout north wind and mostly cloudy skies should allow temperatures to fall below 40 on Saturday. But as high pressure builds in and the sun comes out on Sunday, don’t expect temperatures to be on the rise. It looks just as cold Sunday, with highs near 40 (well below normal as shown in the image above) and lows that morning in the 20’s.

What is perhaps even more interesting is an upper-level disturbance that could bring some brief wintry precipitation to the Mid-South on Monday morning as cold air will be in place and light precipitation is expected. This is much too far out to be getting into specifics, but expect more information as we get closer to next week.

–William Churchill (Social Media Intern)

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