More rain and storms in time for the weekend

We’ve had a fairly extended period of dry weather following deluges and severe storms early last week. A few cool days were quickly pushed aside by warm high pressure with highs in the mid 80s for several days now, despite pleasant humidity levels that made mornings and evenings comfortable. As we head towards the weekend, it appears the dry weather comes to an end with rain and thunderstorm chances starting Thursday night.

Severe weather is expected in the Plains today and Thursday and that will push east towards the Mid-South Thursday night and Friday. Fortunately, though, the severe weather threat will be lower here than to our west as the front responsible for the strong storms weakens a bit and stalls out without ever making it through the region. However, we’ll still see showers and some storms move into the region overnight Thursday night into Friday morning, which is our best chance of rain the next several days. An enhanced risk of severe storms stays just west of the metro on Friday, though a few strong storms are possible and certainly heavy rain and lightning will be likely in the area.

An enhanced risk of severe weather exists west of the MS River on Friday. Above, the probability of severe storms within 25 miles of a point, which is at 15% for most of AR.

After the main round of precipitation ends sometime Friday morning, with the front loitering to our west, we could  still see scattered showers or a few thunderstorms the rest of the day Friday into the evening. Mother’s Day weekend appears to hold “unorganized” rain chances at this point. Some areas will stay dry and others will see intermittent showers. We don’t suggest cancelling any outdoor plans for the weekend just yet, but it would be prudent to have a rain plan in case an unforeseen shower pops up overhead. Consult later forecasts and social media posts from MWN in case more organized activity appears on the radar. Outside of showers, it will remain warm and muggy this weekend with highs in the lower half of the 80s and lows in the 60s.

Projected rainfall totals from tonight through next Wednesday, provided by NOAA. The Memphis metro could see up to 3-4″ of rain when including Thursday night/Friday, any weekend rain, and the system early next week.

One last round of rain looks to move through early next week, likely Monday night or Tuesday as a cold front finally pushes through the region. For the next week, rainfall totals of 2-4″ are expected across the region. Behind the cold front next week, cooler weather (more seasonal, not cold) will build into the region under dry high pressure for the middle of next week. Full details for the week ahead can be found in the MWN Forecast and any hazardous weather in the coming three days can always be found in the MWN Significant Weather Outlook.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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