October 2014 Weather Recap and MWN Forecast Accuracy


October Recap

After a ten month streak of below normal temperatures was broken in August, October continued a new streak of above normal temperatures, now at three months, averaging 1.4 degrees above normal. Rainfall totaled 4.00 inches for the month, which is almost exactly average, but for the year precipitation is still 124% of normal, or 10.02″ above normal. There was no severe weather during the month.

There were a couple of rounds of strong to severe thunderstorms during the month. The first was  the afternoon and evening of October 2 as a squall line moved through the area. Hail and damaging wind was reported as the line moved through. Memphis International Airport recorded 61 mph wind gusts. A Tornado Warning was issued late in the evening for the eastern metro, though no damage was reported.

October 2nd late afternoon radar and storm reports in the metro. Wind and hail was reported in multiple metro counties.

The next event was the morning of October 7 when thunderstorms in a northwest flow regime dropped hail up to 1″ in diameter in central Shelby County.

October 7th morning radar as a cluster of storms dropped hail in central Shelby Co.

The last event was October 13 when yet another line of storms moved through during the afternoon. This event carried a pretty serious damaging wind threat leading up to the event, but the strong wind never made it to the surface and reports in the metro were few and far between.

October 13th early afternoon radar shows a squall line with limited severe weather. Storms intensified east of the metro later in the afternoon.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 65.5 degrees (1.4 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 75.7 degrees
Average low temperature: 55.3 degrees
Warmest temperature: 90 degrees (2nd)
Coolest temperature: 40 degrees (31st)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: For the year, the average temperature at Memphis is 64.2 degrees, which is 1.7 degrees below average.

Monthly total: 4.00″ (0.02″ above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 10
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.71″ (12th-13th)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: As of the end of October, the yearly precipitation has been 42.45″, which is 10.02″ above (or 124% of) average.

Peak wind: South/61 mph (2nd)
Average wind: 6.8 mph
Average relative humidity: 68%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 62.8 degrees
Average high temperature: 75.5 degrees
Average low temperature: 52.1 degrees
Warmest temperature: 89.3 degrees (1st)
Coolest temperature: 38.0 degrees (30th)
Comments: None

Monthly total: 4.84″ (automated rain gauge), 5.02″ (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11
Wettest date: 1.18″ (18th) (via automated gauge)
Comments: None

Peak wind: Southwest/27 mph (2nd)
Average relative humidity: 82%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.66 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 77%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.89 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 58%

MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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