Rain and thunder to end the week then a cloudy but dry weekend

Rain is moving into the metro this morning as the first of a couple impulses moves through the area and a warm front continues lifting north. Temperatures are already climbing towards the mid 60s ahead of the rain with dewpoints rising above 60, which means a very humid airmass for early December. I’ll use simulated radar graphics from one of our best high-resolution models as we talk through the day.

Simulated radar from the HRRR model valid at noon.

Rain will last throughout the afternoon hours, meaning a wet dismissal from school this afternoon mostly likely. Some rumbles of thunder are possible this afternoon as well.

Simulated radar at 3pm. Rain and some thunder possible as kids get out of school.

The initial batch of rain looks to be moving out around rush hour tonight. and, if they’re lucky, the Collierville Christmas Parade at 7pm MIGHT catch a break with just scattered showers and thunderstorms around. The parade is rain or shine, but if you’re planning to attend, use common sense and seek shelter if you see lightning or hear thunder. [UPDATE: This afternoon, Collierville officials decided to cancel the parade. There is no makeup date.] This relative “lull” in activity could also coincide with the arrival of 18,000 of you at FedExForum tonight. (Go Grizz!)

Simulated radar at 6pm showing the initial batch of rain departing but more activity developing to the west.

By late evening into the early overnight hours, thunderstorms are looking more likely as a cold front draws closer and runs into very humid, warm air and sufficient wind aloft to allow for some storm organization. The Storm Prediction Center has placed the Mid-South in a Marginal risk for severe weather, which is category 1 of 5 and below a Slight Risk. The chance of severe weather is slim, but brief strong wind gusts are possible if strong wind aloft mixes down to the surface in thunderstorms.

Simulated radar at 10pm, projecting some thunderstorms in the area as a cold front nears.
A Marginal Risk of severe weather (category 1 of 5) exists for the Mid-South. Brief strong wind gusts are possible, but not likely, from evening into the overnight hours.

Overall, this will be a pretty good rainmaker with rainfall amounts over an inch likely to be common by Saturday morning and some spots possible seeing 2″ if multiple storms move overhead.

Forecast rainfall totals from the National Weather Service through 6am Saturday.

The good news is that all of the rain should be gone by 6am Saturday with maybe just some drizzle or sprinkles Saturday morning. Temperatures in the morning will likely hover in the lower 50s during the morning with a steady north wind at 10-15 mph for the St. Jude Memphis Marathon.

For afternoon and early evening Christmas parades on Saturday, conditions should be dry but cloudy with that north wind still blowing and temperatures falling from around 50 at 3pm to the upper 40s by 7pm. A warm coat will be a good idea as the wind will be cool, but it won’t be a frigid day with hand warmers, scarves and gloves probably not necessary.

No rain is in the forecast from Sunday through much of next week.  Click here to view the complete MWN Forecast and be sure to follow us on our social media feeds throughout the day and evening for the latest info (links below). Also check out our MWN mobile app for the latest metro radar, forecast, and Twitter updates, even if you don’t use Twitter. We might just win you over. 🙂

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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