A fall-like (warm-cool-warm) pattern expected for the second half of September

The Mid-South experienced a WONDERFUL taste of fall this past weekend with temperatures that bottomed out in the 40s in outlying areas and highs that peaked in the 70s. A bit of a moderating trend began early this week and the past couple of days have seen warmer temperatures once again, but at least the humidity has remained in check.

Heading into the third weekend in September, as daylight hours slowly diminish, sun angles lower, and the official start of fall draws closer, we’re going to experience PERHAPS our last 90° days of the year. Friday and Saturday will both see highs near 90° with slowly increasing dewpoints (humidity). However, another fall front approaches and will move through the metro late Saturday. Rain chances are minimal with the front though (we currently have a 20% chance of rain Saturday) and severe storms are NOT expected.

The surface map for 7pm Saturday shows a cold front draped over the metro but minimal rain chances. The front will bring cooler temperatures for the back half of the weekend and early next week. Graphic courtesy NWS.

To end the weekend, the front will be to our south with cooler temps – closer to 80° than 90° – on Sunday. An upper level disturbance will move in behind the front and could bring a few showers late Sunday into Monday. It appears by Tuesday and into the middle of next week, high pressure regains control aloft, pushing any rain chances east and helping to push temperatures back to near normal levels in the mid 80s. Fall arrives on Wednesday at 3:22am!

The long-range outlook calls for a higher than average chance of above normal temperatures for the second half of September and better than even odds of below average precipitation. I’m just glad that “above normal temps” doesn’t mean mid to upper 90s anymore! On average, our highs are right at 80° at the end of September.

The outlook from the NOAA for the last week in September shows about a 50% chance of above normal temperatures (above) and higher than even chances of below average precipitation (below). Graphics courtesy CPC/NOAA.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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