September 2015 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

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September Recap

September typically begins the welcome decline in average temperatures and is one of the driest months of the year. This month definitely lived up to the usually dry pattern, but temperatures were slow to depart from summertime trends. Temperatures ended the month nearly 2.5 degrees above normal.

Precipitation-wise, all but 0.20″ of the rain that fell occurred on one day. Over the past two months, the vast majority of precipitation has fallen on just a few days, leading to “abnormally dry” conditions appearing in the Horseshoe Lake and Tunica County portions of the metro, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. Through September, Memphis International Airport’s annual rainfall deficit is 3.18″, or about 92% of normal.

There was no severe weather in the Memphis metro during the month of September. In fact, no thunderstorms were reported at the airport for the entire month.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 77.5 degrees (2.3 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 87.5 degrees (2.4 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 67.5 degrees (2.3 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 97 degrees (5th)
Coolest temperature: 53 degrees (13th)
Records set or tied: None
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 1.32″ (1.77″ below average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 5 (2.3 days below normal)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.12″ (9th)
Total Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: None
Comments: A dry month was made even drier by the fact that 85% of the total monthly precipitation fell on one day.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/32 mph (11th)
Average wind: 5.7 mph
Average relative humidity: 63%
Average sky cover: 40%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 73.5 degrees
Average high temperature: 86.7 degrees
Average low temperature: 62.4 degrees
Warmest temperature: 96.5 degrees (5th)
Coolest temperature: 47.6 degrees (13th)
Comments: None

Precipitation
Monthly total: 1.43″ (automated rain gauge), 1.49″ (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 5
Wettest date: 1.00″ (9th) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/18 mph (12th)
Average relative humidity: 79%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.48 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 85%
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.70 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 77%

MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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