Don’t fall for it… this isn’t fall!

In Sunday’s blog post, we warned you this was going to happen:

“Overall, it appears we may be stuck in a warmer than normal overall pattern (though not necessarily as warm as the next several days) right through the end of the month. The long-range upper level pattern favored by climate models indicate a return to cooler than average weather by around the first of October.”

I hate to say it but…

Indeed we were back in the lower 90s this week with humidity levels into the “average for mid-summer” range. Today we reiterate the point made earlier – above normal temperatures continue almost through the end of the month. This despite the start of “meteorological fall” (which is September 1 and used for climate purposes) and astronomical fall (when the autumnal equinox occurs at 3:02pm today). But you’re smart enough to know, this isn’t fall weather!

In fact, by a 3:1 margin in our unofficial poll, you’re ready for REAL fall.

MWN POLL: Are you ready for fall weather or wish we could keep summer a little while longer?

— (@memphisweather1) September 20, 2017

So when will that happen? Thursday, September 28. Until then, we are stuck with a large ridge of warm high pressure blocking fall weather to our west from making it into the area. We’re not alone – here’s the temperature map as of Friday mid-morning:

The upper level trough to the west will finally make a push east remain bottled up in the western U.S. until early next week, then finally start to seep east. We’ll see a front move through sometime Wednesday of next week. Until then, we’ll continue with highs generally within a couple degrees of 90° for highs and lows at 70° or above for the most part with only slim chances of afternoon showers. Summer continues…

The one bit of good news as we head into the weekend is that the dewpoints (remember that is an absolute measure of humidity in the air that doesn’t change as much as relative humidity does with the diurnal cycle) are receding a bit into the mid to upper 60s from their recent levels at or just above 70°. What that means is that it won’t be QUITE as sticky out and low temperatures should get a couple of degrees cooler in the mornings.

Not exactly the best news, but it’s a start! However, by late next week, starting around Thursday, we’ll be back to near normal temperatures (which will be closer to 80° for highs and 60° for lows). Plus, long-range climate models are pointing to below normal temperatures and precipitation to start October. Looking for highs in the 70s? We could be just about a week away!

So to sum it up…

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Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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