Will Nate rain on Memphis? And we’re still waiting on fall!

For the past 5 weeks or so, our highest rain chances have been with the remnants of tropical systems. First there was Harvey and then Irma. Now Nate is moving onto the radar. While just named as a tropical storm this morning and currently over Nicaragua, it is on a trajectory to take it into the southern Gulf of Mexico by early Saturday, then move quickly north towards an early Sunday landfall along the central Gulf Coast (NOLA? Gulf Shores? Both are possible…). Here’s what I had to say earlier today:

Fall Break travelers

If you are planning a fall break trip to the Gulf Coast, particularly the MS, AL, or FL panhandle region, you’ll want to keep a close eye on it. As mentioned above, the intensity forecast is problematic. The good news is that it will be fairly compact and moving along at a decent pace, so its impacts won’t last long, though after-effects could be an issue (flooding, power outages, etc.). Follow us on Facebook or Twitter for the latest and check out our MWN Tropical page for the latest graphics and NHC bulletins.

Meanwhile, back home…

Locally, we are looking at one more day of warm (mid 80s) but dry weather with low humidity on Friday. By Saturday, southerly flow ahead of an approaching trough will drag moisture from the Gulf of Mexico back into the area and it will be humid again. In addition, the trough and additional moisture will trigger the possibility of scattered showers and a few thunderstorms just about anytime during the day. Temperatures remain warm (mid 80s again), so it’ll feel pretty sticky. Keep that in mind if you’re heading to the Mempho music festival or other outdoor events like Levitt Shell! Rain chances increase Saturday night and Sunday as Nate’s moisture feeds in on the southerly flow. The additional clouds and rain will keep Sunday’s temperatures down to near 80.

The European model shows Nate moving from the central Gulf of Mexico on Saturday morning into southeast LA, Mississippi, then the Tennessee Valley by Monday evening. Rainfall is expected across the Mid-South on this track, but wind effects will be minimal. Graphic courtesy WxBell.

Nate’s remnants look like they will move east of the Memphis area on Sunday night with continued rain chances, but likely not much of a wind effect. Scattered showers and thunderstorms remain possible Monday with highs back into the mid 80s.

Where’s fall??

Earlier this week, I had been fairly confident that we would get a fall front to move through early next week that would knock highs back down into the 70s and deliver some nice fall weather. Well… the large high pressure that would bring that fall weather MAY move by just to our north. While I still expect some relief from the mid 80s and humid weather, we may not get quite as cool as previously advertised and that cooler weather now will be delayed by at least another day or so – to Thursday of next week.

We’ll continue to keep our eyes peeled for signs of REAL fall weather, but for now we may have to just be happy that when the humidity creeps up, at least it’s not 90 degrees out! Stay tuned to our social feeds for the latest on Nate and its effects on the Gulf coast and our area, as well as the MWN Forecast. And let’s hope that this storm is the last one with any impact on the U.S. in what has been a very busy tropical season!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

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