Near record breaking temps for now, rain chances return Tuesday

Well, Mother Nature has decided to fast-forward through the rest of spring and propel us straight into summer for the foreseeable future. For this weekend through next, temps look to stay around 10 degrees above normal for mid-May.

Our weather pattern will continue to be dominated by an upper-level high pressure ridge over our area into the beginning of next week. Following this ridging pattern to the surface is a nice high pressure, keeping our skies filled with plenty of sunshine helping keep away any of those pesky afternoon showers for now.

Mid-morning Saturday surface analysis showing the high pressure built over the majority of the southeastern U.S. (NOAA/WPC)

Along with these well-above average temperatures, we will get close to a few record highs. Highs today through Monday look to stay in the low 90s with overnight temps dipping into the low 70s. To put these temps in perspective, the record high for today is 93°, tomorrow is 95°, and Monday is 91°. I would not be surprised to see that record broken on Monday.

Tuesday Forward

Tuesday into the second half of the week expect temps to stay above average with increasing mugginess. We could break a few more high temperature records on Tuesday and Wednesday, with forecast highs near and/or exceeding the current record for both days (91 and 92 degrees, respectively). As we stand currently, we could break more than one record between now and Wednesday. 
By Thursday, our temps will finally begin to back off a bit with highs in the mid to upper 80s. It’ll still be hot, but not as hot as it has been.

12Z GFS loop of forecast precipitation from midday Tuesday through Saturday night showing scattered showers across much of our area. (Tropical Tidbits)

Two low pressure systems arrive towards the middle of next week and will re-introduce some rain chances. We will have a subtropical low system coming at us from the Gulf of Mexico, providing ample amounts of moisture and aiding in our rain chances through the second half of the week. The second system will pass by to our north, but will help to bring temps down a few degrees Thursday into the weekend. Shower chances begin on Tuesday and will continue each day into the weekend. For those planning to head to the Memphis in May World Championship Barbecue Cooling Contest Wednesday through Saturday, you may want to bring your small umbrellas (oversized ones not allowed), poncho and rain boots with you each day. 
I wouldn’t let these rain chances hinder any plans you may have, but you might go ahead and have a good afternoon/evening rain plan just in case

A Glimpse into Next Weekend

Next weekend looks to be a lot like the second half of the week; mild temperatures, partly to mostly sunny skies, and daily afternoon scattered rain chances.

Climate Prediction Center’s 6 to 10 Day Outlook valid May 17-21 shows a high likelihood of above average temperatures over our area. (NOAA/CPC)

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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