Storms possible through Monday night, then a taste of fall?

We’ve had a pretty interesting weather pattern here in Memphis over the past week. We’ve had days with above average temps and days with below average temps. Some areas have stayed pretty wet, while a lot of the metro area hasn’t seen a drop recently. Luckily, cooler temps do look like they will be hanging around for the next few weeks. Along with that, uncertain rain chances will continue this weekend into the beginning of next week. However, by the middle of next week we will begin to see a pattern shift. If we can just make it until then, I bet you’ll all like the rewards that Mother Nature is about to bring.

Today

Do you remember yesterday? Well, today appears to be very similar to what we experienced then. Highs will top off around 88 this afternoon with intermittent cloud coverage throughout the day. Dewpoint temperatures will coast in the 70s, leaving us with some pretty sticky conditions.
As for rain chances, most of us will probably stay dry today, but a shower or two cannot be ruled out. Overall we are expecting for the majority of the showers/thunderstorms to stay to the south of the metro area, but a scattered shower could creep towards us this afternoon into this evening as a weak cold front inches into the area and stalls.
HRRR radar loop now through 2 AM shows scattered thunderstorms primarily in northern MS with maybe a few showers closer to the metro area this afternoon. (WeatherBell)

Sunday

Another hot and humid day appears likely on Sunday as the front retreats to the north. Cloud coverage will continue to hang around, but temps will reach near 90 for our high. Dewpoint temps look to remain in the 70s, so expect mugginess to hang around. As for our rain chances, it appears that the majority of us will stay dry through a good portion of the day with the best scattered thunderstorm chances coming in the evening into the overnight hours as low pressure begins to crank up to our northwest. Things will stay pretty muggy overnight with temps only falling to 75.

Monday

I spy a pattern shift coming on Tuesday, but first we have to make it through a potentially soggy Monday. As a low pressure system develops north of the Ohio River Valley, a frontal system will be set up across the Mid-South, likely bringing some showers and thunderstorms. 
Weather Prediction Center’s Day 3 surface map shows a low pressure system moving into Michigan with an associated cold front moving through the Ohio River Valley and down into the Mid-South early on Tuesday. (NOAA/WPC)
While we are not expecting a complete washout, we could see a few strong to severe thunderstorms on Monday. Showers and thunderstorms appear possible throughout the day, but any strong storms that develop would likely do so in the afternoon to evening hours and could pose a damaging wind or hail risk.
The Storm Prediction Center currently has us in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) on Monday. (NOAA/SPC)
Highs will be near 88 on Monday with 10 to 15 mph winds possible throughout the day. We will continue to keep an eye on the timing of these showers and thunderstorms for Monday.

Tuesday through the rest of the work week

After all of the rain chances and sticky humidity levels we’ve had recently, the second half of next week looks amazing. Thanks to a cold front passing through early on Tuesday, rain chances will back off to nearly non-existent and things will dry out. Temps will remain below average with dewpoints falling back into the 60s, and maybe even the 50s!
The NWS forecast temperatures for the next week shows highs dropping back into the mid 80s with morning lows into the mid 60s by the middle of next week! (WeatherModels.com)
It may not feel quite like fall, but it will definitely be nice to catch a break from those high humidity values. Plus a few nights next week will save us some dollars on our cooling bills!

Looking into the future

The best news of all to share is that below average temps may be here to stay for the foreseeable future. The last week of August and both of the first two weeks in September appear to feature below average temps.

The outlook for Aug 23-27, as well as the first two weeks of September, both call for enhanced odds of below average temperatures in the Mid-South. We’ll take it! pic.twitter.com/oTixZ4HUix

— MemphisWeather.net (@memphisweather1) August 17, 2018

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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