Fantastic Labor Day weekend, then we geek out on next week’s forecast

A busy weekend is coming up for a lot of us with plenty of people wanting to take advantage of the long, holiday weekend. Luckily, Mother Nature has provided us with some pretty good weather for the weekend – it may even feel a little summer-like still.

Today

Happy Friday everyone! Things appear to be somewhat similar today to yesterday’s conditions with highs near 90 and a chance of showers and thunderstorms. The good news is that storm coverage this afternoon/evening shouldn’t be as high as it was yesterday. Some high resolution models show this scattered nature of storms later today.
HRRR model of simulated reflectivity from now through late tonight shows scattered showers and thunderstorms developing across the Mid-South primarily in the afternoon to early evening hours. (WeatherBell)
Any showers and thunderstorms that develop this afternoon should begin to lose strength shortly after sunset. Temps will remain in the 80s through the evening hours for all of those with plans to head out to high school football games.

Labor Day Weekend

For all of those with plans to take advantage of the long weekend, you are in luck! Besides some slight afternoon shower chances, the majority of the day should be filled with plenty of sunshine. Highs will remain in the low 90s, but a nice breeze each day could help.

If you will be out tailgating on Saturday for the Memphis Tigers season opening football game, you’ll definitely want to have plenty of water and sunscreen! Recall the UCLA game last year? Yeah, it was hot… Same goes for the USL soccer exhibition at AutoZone Park on Saturday.

Sunday will likely be the warmest day of the weekend with heat index values nearing 100. If you do plan to be outside for prolonged periods of time, be sure to stay hydrated. 

Tuesday through next week

In short, next week will be pretty boring with highs in the lower 90s, lows in the lower to mid 70s, and minimal rain chances each day. For those of you that want a quick forecast, there it is. For those of you interested in learning why this is happening, let’s get geeky – read on!
First things first, high pressure influences will be our friend next week. The map shown below represents mid-level flow (about 18,000 feet up in our atmosphere) averaged over a 5-day period from Sunday-Thursday. The average pressure pattern is shown by the solid black lines with a large high pressure system over the eastern U.S. Warmer colors, such as orange and yellow, mean a positive pressure anomaly (above normal pressure) whereas the cooler colors, such as blue, mean a negative pressure anomaly (below normal presure).
I know, it’s a bit complicated. Essentially, areas with these “warm colors” means that average heights will be higher than normal through the period, which is correlated with high pressure. As you can see, these higher height anomalies are set up over the eastern half of the U.S., with our area feeling these influences.
European 5-day ensemble mean shows higher heights over the eastern half of the U.S. designated by the warmer colors. (WeatherBell)
So how does this translate to what we will see? For us, high pressure usually means near to above average temperatures depending on the set-up and rain chances kept to a minimum. Taking a look at a few additional resources, we see that this is the case. An NWS ensemble (basically a combination of a bunch of individual models) forecast shows highs near 90 or a bit higher, which is a touch above average, and overnight lows in the low to mid 70s, which is also a bit above average. 
NWS Blend of Models for next week shows temps a little above average for the first half of the week, with temps cooling to right around average for the second half of next week. (weathermodels.com)
Additionally, precipitation chances will be kept to a minimum next week. One of our medium-range models, the ECMWF,  shows very little precipitation occurring around the Memphis region through next week. The only exception appears to be isolated chances of afternoon thunderstorms like you might expect in a hot summer airmass. 
00Z European Model shows very little total precipitation around the Mid-South region with much more precipitation occurring along the Gulf Coast. (WeatherBell)
So while it may be a semi-boring weather pattern next week, there is actually a lot going on in the atmosphere to cause this!

For the complete forecast, be sure to visit the MWN app or our website. Links are provided below.

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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