Warming trend to finish the week, t’storms expected Friday night

We have had quite the temperature roller coaster over the past few days with this trend expected to continue. Just one week ago, highs were nearing the 60s while Monday and Tuesday only had highs in the lower 40s. For right now, we are going back up on our temperature roller coaster as highs will reach near 70 this weekend.

We know a lot of people have questions about the forecast over the next few days, especially for this weekend, so we will get right to it.

Rest of Today

Cloud coverage is expected to continue increasing into the afternoon hours. Latest satellite images show clouds increasing to our north and west and drifting towards our area. Clouds will hang around into the overnight hours, and combined with a south wind, will help to keep temps a little warmer than we’ve seen recently overnight. Lows will reach near 46. 
Latest (around 1 PM 11/28/2018) GOES 16 visible satellite loop. (College of DuPage)

Tomorrow

Into tomorrow, we will begin to shift into a somewhat-muggier period. We aren’t talking summertime mugginess, but it will be a little more humid than we have seen recently. Mostly cloudy skies and warmer conditions can be expected as highs near 63. Scattered rain chances are possible throughout the day, with rain chances increasing slightly. 

Friday

Cloudiness will continue into Friday with scattered showers being possible throughout the day. Highs will near 70, with breezy winds out of the south making things feel even muggier.
Heavier showers and a few potentially strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible during the overnight hours on Friday. A few thunderstorms could develop Friday evening, but timing suggests that the strongest storms, if we get any, would occur overnight.
The Storm Prediction Center currently includes Memphis in a “slight” risk (level 2/5) with surrounding areas either in the “marginal” (1/5) or “slight” risk categories as well. (NOAA/SPC)
All hazards are possible and cannot be ruled out at this time, but the main concerns appear to be periods of heavy rainfall and damaging wind gusts. We will continue to keep an eye on things over the next few days, so be sure to keep up with us on our social media pages (linked below) for the most up-to-date information.

Saturday

Oh Saturday. Saturday is a busy day for many in Memphis with the St. Jude Marathon series taking place (I will be running in the half marathon too!). There is some good news and bad news for runners participating in this year’s races depending what running conditions you typically like to run in. Lingering showers are possible during the early morning hours of race day, but are expected to clear out around or before 9 AM-ish. Clouds will likely hang around for the majority of the morning during all of the races, although some clouds may begin to clear out as the morning progresses. As for our temps, temps will remain in the low 60s around race time but be pretty muggy as well. Additionally, winds will be pretty breezy (10-20 mph), which could help out with the muggy temps but may cause you to be running into the wind at times.
Regardless, severe weather is not expected to linger that far into the morning hours. Be prepared for warm and muggy conditions throughout the race with light rain possible before 9 AM.
NAM model loop shows heavy showers during the Friday overnight hours, with showers clearing out during the morning hours. (TropicalTidbits)

For the rest of the day, skies will continue clearing after the morning’s cloudiness. Highs will reach the lower 70s by the afternoon.

Sunday into Next Week

Somewhat “cooler” weather is expected to return to the Mid-South on Sunday and continue into the beginning of next week. Luckily, we are not expecting another frigid cold snap, just highs lowers 60s on Sunday and 50s for the first half of next week. Overnight temps will dip into the 40s.

While widespread showers aren’t expected, we could see a few isolated showers Monday and Tuesday. Forecasting showers this far out should be taken with a grain of salt, so I will leave it at that. Enjoy the somewhat fall-ish weather coming next week!

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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