Cold rain returns, but let’s talk about frozen precip potential

Below-average temperatures will continue to hold onto the Mid-South over the next several days with highs remaining in the lower to mid 40s and overnight lows in the mid 30s. The next few days will be characterized by scattered showers throughout the day, continuing into this weekend. There are some concerns about frozen precipitation Saturday night into Sunday morning, but more on this later.

Overall, expect areas near and south of the metro area to receive more precipitation over the next few days with decreasing precipitation as you move northward. Some areas could see up to 2 to 3 inches of precipitation over the next few days (yes this is the rain-only form).

The 72-hour precipitation map from the Weather Prediction Center has areas around the Mid-South receiving 2 to 3 inches of precipitation between now and Sunday morning with others receiving closer to an inch. (Pivotal Weather)

Today

We will continue our downward trend in temperatures today with highs only expected to reach 46. Cloudy skies will remain overhead as we prepare for scattered showers that will arrive by evening. Breezy winds around 10 mph could make things feel even colder at times today. Be sure to bundle up before heading out the door and you may want to grab the umbrella for this afternoon and evening.

The HRRR model loop shows scattered showers increasing in coverage this afternoon into this evening. These scattered showers will continue into tomorrow. (WeatherBell)

Friday & Saturday

We will end this week with some pretty chilly and dreary conditions. Showers will begin to increase throughout the day Friday, continuing into the overnight hours Friday and into Saturday. Rain on both days will be a very cold rain, so keeping an umbrella handy will be ideal. 
The high-res NAM model from early Friday through Saturday evening shows scattered, mainly light, showers on Friday with continuous rain through most of the day Saturday. (Tropical Tidbits)
Temperatures will stay just warm enough throughout both days that wintry precipitation is not a concern. Highs both days will be in the low 40s with overnight lows in the mid 30s, so temperatures will not vary too much through the day. 

Sunday

Showers will continue through the early morning hours on Sunday and could *potentially* turn into light snow or freezing rain. The biggest concern with Sunday’s forecast is where our temperatures will be. If surface temperatures can cool enough, then we could see some freezing rain. Temperatures just aloft will also be borderline for the potential for some light snow. It appears right now that there is a slightly better chance for light snow mixing with rain than freezing rain.  It will remain cold on Sunday, with most of the day spent in the 30s.
GFS model loop from late Saturday through mid-day Sunday shows a very small window of opportunity for frozen precipitation early on Sunday. Regardless, any precipitation should begin to move out by the afternoon hours on Sunday. (Tropical Tidbits)
Those to the north of the metro area have the greatest chance of seeing freezing precipitation from Saturday into Sunday, as surface temperatures will be colder the farther north you move. If you have travel plans north of Memphis this weekend, keep that in mind.
Greatest chance of seeing any type of wintry mix and snow appears to be north of I-40. Chances increase the farther north of the metro area you move. (NOAA/NWS)
This is an evolving forecast that will need to be monitored over the next few days. For latest trends and thinking, be sure to check out our social media accounts (linked below) and the MWN forecast online and on our app.

Next Week

Things will remain around to slightly below average early next week. For those curious, around this time of year our “average” high temperatures is in the low 50s with our “average” low temperature in the mid 30s.
Later next week, we will begin to warm slightly with highs nearing the upper 40s to lower 50s. Overnight lows will be in the low to mid 30s. This will leave us right around that average category. Through the first half of next week, we should remain dry with plenty of sunshine for all. 
Weather Prediction Center 6 to 10 day outlook for temperature shows the Memphis area right around average for next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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