A look ahead to your Christmas forecast

Weekend Before Christmas

The weather looks to cooperate for all your weekend Holiday parties and festivities! A cold front will pass through overnight tonight (Thursday night – Friday morning). Friday morning some drizzle will still be possible, but as the front moves out, the moisture will move out as well, allowing skies to gradually clear by late in the day. Drier, colder air will be moving in Friday after the frontal passage, keeping temperatures in the lower 40s and dropping to near freezing at night. All in favor of Friday’s forecast being our Christmas forecast? I wish!

Decent weather is expected Saturday and Sunday with high temperatures in the mid 50s and lows in the mid 40s. There is a chance of some showers late Saturday night into Sunday morning as another cold front pushes through Sunday. The GFS model (shown below) for 6pm Saturday through 6pm Sunday has only 0.02 inches of rain falling and most of it remaining in north MS. Other models have rain occurring further west and north, but the most significant precipitation occurring east of I-40.

GFS model showing most most measurable rainfall remaining in north MS early Sunday, though other models are a little more bullish for the metro. (WxBell)

Christmas Eve (Monday)

Christmas Eve looks to be just an average December day! The high temperature is forecast to be slightly above average (mid 50s) and the low right near average (mid 30s). Some sun is likely to peek out on Christmas Eve, but at least we’ll be waking up to 30 degree temperatures on Christmas morning!

Christmas Day Outlook

Christmas Day is when the forecasting challenge arrives. One reliable model is hinting at scattered showers throughout the day as moisture returns to the area. Changes to this forecast are likely with 5 days still to go before the holiday, but prepare for the possibility.

The big Christmas Day question: Will it be cold enough to “feel” like Christmas? The average is high for Christmas Day in Memphis is 48 and the average low is 33. The forecasted high is in the mid 50s, which puts us above average, but not necessarily warm. It’ll be cool enough to keep on that tacky Christmas sweater and still be comfortable!

Christmas Climatology

The charts below show Christmas Day climatology for the Memphis area. The warmest December 25th on record occurred in 1889 with a high of 76°. The coldest December 25th on record occurred in 1983 when the temperature reached 0° and didn’t climb above 16°. Anyone remember this Christmas Day?

The warmest Christmas Days in Memphis recorded history. 

The coldest Christmases in Memphis history.

Be sure to follow us throughout the upcoming weekend as we fine-tune the forecast for Christmas Day! Hopefully the rain chances disappear, though don’t count on a White Christmas this year! You can find the latest forecast on our mobile app or website with links posted below.

Lauren Pounds, Guest Blogger
MWN Social Media Intern

Editor’s Note: Lauren has been a dedicated social media intern for MWN for 2 years and is about to depart #TeamMWN as she prepares for a busy last semester at Mississippi State and graduation in May. It was only fitting that she have the opportunity to write a blog “in her own words” before moving on, since she has completed her first real forecasting class. My deepest appreciation and thanks to Lauren for the amazing job she has done for me, and all of you, the past two years! We wish her the best this spring, and in the future, as she achieves her dream of becoming a meteorologist! 
–Erik ]

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

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