April showers abound!

After what has been a dry end to March and start to April, we finally got our first measurable precipitation for the month today. We look to be shifting from a dry weather pattern back into a wet weather pattern beginning today and lasting into next week. Luckily, temperatures look to be pretty comfortable over the next week, with daytime highs in the 70s. While we will get a break from these showers tomorrow, you are going to want to keep the umbrella handy for this weekend.

Rest of today

Scattered showers will continue to push through the Mid-South for the remainder of the afternoon. By this evening, coverage will begin to decrease with only a few showers remaining.
HRRR loop from 3 PM until 7 AM tomorrow shows showers decreasing in coverage by around 8 PM with scattered showers remaining into the overnight hours. (WeatherBell)
Overnight, a light drizzle is possible with some patchy fog developing. Temps will fall to near 56. 

Friday

Warmer temps will return tomorrow as we have a nice, dry day following all of today’s rain. Highs will reach to near 70. Unfortunately, while it is expected to be dry, skies will remain mostly cloudy through the day. 

Saturday

Through the first half of the day, we are expecting some pretty amazing weather. While clouds will begin to increase in the afternoon, we should make it through the morning and even some of the afternoon with a bit of sunshine. Highs will reach a warm 78° as well.
By the mid to late afternoon, we will be preparing for another round of showers and thunderstorms, some of which could be strong to severe. This is still a few days about, but something to keep an eye on before Saturday.
Most of our coverage area is included in a “Marginal” (1/5) or “Slight” (2/5) risk for severe weather on Saturday, with the metro area being included in the Slight Risk category. (NOAA/SPC)
For those with plans on Saturday, outdoor plans should be okay through the morning and early afternoon hours. Timing of these showers and thunderstorms is still a bit uncertain due to model inconsistencies; however, we are expecting rain by Saturday evening. Those with Saturday late afternoon plans should keep any eye on timing over the next few days. 

Sunday and Monday

More. Rain.

Sunday and Monday look pretty gross if you ask me. A slow moving, low-pressure system will be moving through portions of the southeastern U.S. both days, aiding in pulling in plenty of moisture to keep showers in the forecast. There will be enough instability in the atmosphere that a few thunderstorms could develop in the mix of these showers. For now, widespread severe weather is not expected. 

GFS loop from Saturday evening through early Tuesday morning shows showers hanging around the Mid-South through much of Sunday and Monday. (Tropical Tidbits)
Temps will be a hair warmer on Sunday than on Monday, with highs expected to be in the upper 70s Sunday and lower 70s on Monday. Overnight temps will only cool of slightly, with lows in the low to mid 60s. While we may see a few dry periods, you will definitely want to keep the umbrella handy both days.
When all is said and done after Monday’s rain, many across the Mid-South could see upwards of three to four inches of rain. This includes rain from today, Saturday night, Sunday, and Monday. While the rain will be spread out over several days, it will be a decent amount of rainfall for any plants that need it.
The Weather Prediction Center’s 120 hr precipitation forecast, covering today through Tuesday AM, shows much of the Mid-South receiving over 3 inches of rainfall. (Pivotal Weather)

Rest of next week

Unfortunately, we are not going to be able to shake off this soggy weather in the near future. While Tuesday and Wednesday look to be dry, following these two days more precipitation is expected to return. A glance at our precipitation outlook for next Wednesday through Sunday shows above average precipitation is expected. 
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Precipitation Probability Outlook has much of the Mid-South in an above-average precipitation pattern for late next week. (Pivotal Weather)
Luckily, despite this soggy weather, temps are expected to remain around normal for the time of year – highs average in the low 70s for early to mid April.

The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 Temperature Probability Outlook has much of the Mid-South in an about average temperature pattern for late next week. (Pivotal Weather)

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist

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