Warm Saturday leads to stormy Saturday night through Monday

We have storms in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. I’m sure some might take that as a surprise with such awesome weather outside at the moment. That said, your Saturday daytime is looking good. Skies are going to remain mostly sunny until around 3-5pm: cloud cover will start to increase ahead of the storms that will be pushing in this evening. Temps are going to make a hard push to reach 80, but will likely fall just short in the upper 70s.

Tonight’s Storms

Today’s SPC Outlook highlights a majority of the Memphis metro under a Slight Risk for tonight’s storms. The greatest risks tonight are strong winds and hail.
Current timing for tonight’s storms will range between 8pm and midnight. A warm front, tied to a low that will bringing more opportunities for severe weather into Monday, will start to lift through the Mid-South starting around 6pm. This will bring increasing cloud cover late this afternoon. Before the storms, a few isolated showers could be possible. As tonight’s storms push through, our greatest risks will be damaging winds up to 60 mph and hail up to 1 inch. Given the dynamics of this event, the threat of any tornadic activity remains to our southwest.
HRRR model shows storms moving in tonight between 8pm and midnight, with a break in rain after. Courtesy of WeatherBell
After the storms move out this evening, we will get a temporary pause in rain, besides some likely isolated sprinkles. This will place us in the warm sector of the low pressure system that will be progressing eastward. Temps will only drop to 64.

Sunday’s Storms

The SPC Outlook for Sunday places the entire MWN area under a slight risk as we watch for a series of waves to push through Sunday that will be bringing storms. Right now, the ugliest of these waves looks to move in Sunday morning.
The dry period after Saturday night’s storms will provide an opportunity for conditions to become more favorable for storms as the atmosphere saturates and becomes more unstable. A series of waves are possible throughout Sunday ahead of the cold front that will finally arrive Monday. Right now, the focus of all these waves are on the one that currently looks to move through Memphis around sunrise Sunday morning. Threats still remain aligned with Saturday’s of damaging winds and hail possible, but there is a very low risk of a brief tornado added. 
A wave of storms are set to move through the Mid-South Sunday AM, making round two of storms over the next few days. Source: Tropical Tidbits.
Model consistency from this point goes downhill, so all of this is subject to change. After the morning storms. It appears that we get a break in the weather for a bit. Conditions will  remain mild throughout and perhaps some brief glimpses of sun will make it through. Temps are set to again climb into the upper 70s. The break in weather ends during the afternoon and evening with a possible two wave set of storms that will be moving through. All threats will remain the same as the morning. That last wave is set to run into Monday AM as the front finally pushes through.
Storms move into Memphis Sunday afternoon, which will quickly be followed by a second line that will develop late Sunday into Monday AM with the front moving through the region at that point. Source: Tropical Tidbits
Keep up-to-date on the latest with our social media where we will let you know of any changes in our forecasts!

This is my last blog with MWN! It has been a great opportunity serving the Memphis community over the past year and a half! Likewise, it has been such an honor to learn from Erik and all of you in the Memphis region who help give insight and what weather communication techniques work best for the public. That said, in May after this semester is over, I will be moving to Blacksburg, Virginia, to start working for the NWS office there. This is exciting news since my family is originally from that region. The only bad part will be that I am temporarily leaving my fiance who lives and works in Memphis. Who knows, maybe one day I will be returning?

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist

Editor’s Note:
Reggie has been a fantastic addition to MWN the past year and a half. He has served us, and you all, extremely well with his timely and accurate social media updates, and sense of humor that kept it “real” on the blog and Facebook / Twitter. We’ll miss him a great deal, but certainly wish him all the best as he begins a career pursuing his passion for weather and science. Thank you Reggie for your dedication to the Mid-South. You’ll make a great addition to the fine public servants at the National Weather Service! 

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

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