More rain and storms tomorrow, then a fantastic Easter weekend

Oh April. While I love the warmer temperatures, we always begin to see an increase in severe weather activity around this time of year. From a climatology standpoint, April is when we do see the most severe weather. After what has been a somewhat quiet week so far, things will be changing tomorrow as another round of showers and strong to severe thunderstorms will be possible. With these storms, there are some flash flooding concerns.

Luckily, this weekend Mother Nature looks to pay us back with some amazing conditions! If you have outdoor plans this Easter weekend, you are in luck because things look fantastic.

Rest of today

Cloudy conditions will remain through the evening and overnight hours as temps fall back to near 63. We will see winds remain around 15 mph overnight.
We’ve already seen a few, scattered showers develop to our south this afternoon. Luckily, most of us should remain dry until well after midnight. Rain chances will increase towards morning, with most of us receiving rain and a few t’storms by sunrise tomorrow morning as the first round arrives for the day.

Thursday

Heading into tomorrow, expect for showers throughout the majority of the day with heavier rain and some strong to severe thunderstorms in the afternoon. Highs will near 69 with breezy winds around 15 mph.
While severe weather is possible for tomorrow, flash flooding is also a concern with the amount of rainfall we will be seeing. Expect for showers to be knocking on our doorstep by the time you wake up tomorrow morning (they’ll probably arrive before many of us are up). These showers will continue through much of the day, so you’ll want to keep the umbrella handy even if you have to battle in the wind with it. The best chance for a few dry hours is late morning into early afternoon.
A look at the NAM-3km model shows showers reaching our area early tomorrow morning, continuing through most of the day, and then additional, heavier rainfall arriving in the afternoon to early evening hours. (Tropical Tidbits)

Severe Thunderstorm Concerns
While we could see a few thunderstorms in the morning, we are not expecting any severe weather with this round. However, by tomorrow afternoon, an additional line of heavy showers and thunderstorms will be moving through the area, some of which could cause strong wind gusts. The main concerns for our area tomorrow are damaging wind gusts, frequent lightning, and heavy rain. The best chances for severe weather will again be to our south across central and southern MS and LA.

Much of the Mid-South is currently included in a “Slight Risk” (2/5) by the Storm Prediction Center. 

Flash Flooding Concerns
Our local NWS office has issued a Flash Flood Watch for our area from 1 AM tomorrow through 7 PM tomorrow night. We are expecting 2 or more inches of rainfall over our area.
The Weather Prediction Center shows between 2 to 3 inches of rainfall falling over much of the Mid-South tomorrow into Friday, with locally higher amounts possible. (WeatherBell)
Due to this, some flash flooding could occur in low-lying/poorly drained areas. If you do happen to come across a flooded road tomorrow, remember: turn around, don’t drown!

Friday

As the low pressure system that will bring Thursday’s showers and storms continues to drift eastward, it will do so very slowly leaving us with somewhat gloomy conditions on Friday. Shower chances will linger throughout the day, but should begin to clear out by Friday evening. Temps will be much cooler, with highs only nearing 58 and gusty northwest wind.

This weekend

Sunny skies and pleasant temperatures; it won’t get much better than this! We haven’t had a whole rain-free weekend in some time now, but luckily this weekend is shaping up to be quite nice. Highs will be a tad on the cool side on Saturday, around the upper 60s, while temps will return to the mid 70s on Sunday. Be sure to locate your sunglasses because you’re going to need them for those Easter egg hunts!

Glance at next week

As we reach into the second half of April, temps are expected to continue warming next week providing us with some above average temperatures.
Climate Prediction Center shows much of Mid-South expecting above average temperatures with those to our northeast expecting well-above average temperatures. (Pivotal Weather)

Highs next week are expected to remain in the mid 70s to near 80. It is April though, which means showers and thunderstorms will once again be possible by the middle of next week.

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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