Wet pattern through Saturday, sunshine returns Sunday

Our somewhat dry weather pattern could only last so long as we have transitioned back into an unsettled pattern. Showers and thunderstorms will be the main discussion over the next few days with chances now through Saturday. Temps will remain near 80 through the remainder of the week before falling back into the 70s this weekend.

Those who are planning to head out to the Beale Street Music Festival should keep a close eye on the forecast over the next few days, as we are expecting showers/thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday.

Rest of today

It’s been a pretty gross day thus far with showers and thunderstorms moving through the area. A current look at the radar over the area shows scattered showers continuing to drift eastward. The heaviest bands have already moved through.
Radar loop from 1:16 PM through 1:54 PM shows scattered showers pushing through much of the Mid-South.
These showers will remain over the next few hours before pushing off to our east this evening. Temps will remain very mild with a muggy low of 68 overnight. 

Thursday

Tomorrow appears to be somewhat similar to today, with scattered showers through portions of the day and thunderstorms arriving in the afternoon to evening time frame. Highs will reach near 80. We are included in a marginal risk for severe weather tomorrow, with the main concerns being damaging wind gusts and heavy rainfall at times.
The Storm Prediction Center has included our area in a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather tomorrow with a Slight Risk (2/5) in place just to our north. (NOAA/SPC)
We are only expecting a few scattered showers in the morning and early afternoon hours, but the best chances appear to be in the late afternoon into the evening hours. 

Friday

Hope you are planning to keep your umbrella handy because you will need it once again on Friday. Another round of scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected with highs reaching near 81. We could see a few hours in the morning and early afternoon where showers stay away, but expect shower/thunderstorm chances to increase as we move into the late afternoon to evening hours. Luckily, widespread severe weather is not expected, only a few potentially strong thunderstorms and heavy rain at times. 
Unfortunately, this does not bode well for Beale Street Music Festival, set to begin Friday evening. We hope that we can get lucky, but it’s Memphis in May, so there is bound to be some rain.

This weekend

If you have to pick between Saturday and Sunday for an outdoor event, Sunday appears to be the better of the two days. On Saturday, lingering showers and thunderstorms will remain through the first half of the day into the afternoon with highs nearing the mid 70s. Luckily, things should begin to dry out by evening, leaving us with pleasant conditions into the overnight hours.
Sunday looks pretty great if you ask me. While some cloudiness is expected, we will have plenty of sunshine to make the day an enjoyable one. Highs will reach into the upper 70s. The best news of all is that we aren’t expecting any rain, so those heading out to the Beale Street Music Festival will have some awesome outdoor conditions.

Next week

It looks like we may get a taste of summer next week as an upper-level ridge builds into the eastern half of the U.S. This will mean much warmer temperatures for our area, with above-average temperatures in the 80s expected through much of the week.
The Climate Prediction Center’s 6-10 temperature outlook shows above average temperatures across the southeast next week. (Pivotal Weather)

In addition to these warmer temperatures, southerly flow will aid in bringing some moisture to the Mid-South, leading to an increase in our dew point temperatures. Things should remain dry Monday, but shower and t’storm chances return by mid-week.

Caroline MacDonald
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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