Seriously, where is fall?? And a final note from intern Jennifer…

At this point in September I’m feeling a little relatable to Veruca Salt – I want fall and I want it now. I know we’re all wishing for some cooler weather, but not seeing much relief in sight for the foreseeable future. For the past week our highs have been about 10° above average for this time of year. In addition to this heat, we are also getting dry. We’re halfway through September and have had 0.00″ of measurable rainfall. Wow! Let’s go ahead and dive in to what we can expect for this next week, and look at some long term models to see what they’re thinking.

This map shows the precipitation totals for the mid-south for the past 30 days. As you can see, most of the Memphis metro has not received even an inch of rain in the past month.  

Monday and Tuesday

Ah, I went ahead and clumped these two days together because they have the exact same forecast. At this point I think you can assume what it is (hint it’s been the same weather for the past several days). Highs in the mid-to-maybe-upper 90’s with heat indices maxing out around 102°. Mostly sunny skies with a 0% chance of precipitation. Those open skies make way for some cooling overnight with lows in the mid-70’s. It’s a scorcher, so be sure to continue practicing those precautions for hot days.

A surface analysis map showing the high pressure system in control of the mid-south. (NWS)

Wednesday and Thursday

Is this Memphis? Feels like it. 

Mostly sunny and hot conditions will persist as that upper ridge of high pressure above us sticks around and strengthens in fact. Highs for both days are in the mid-90’s and lows in the mid-70’s. However, as clouds begin to pick up on Thursday, we do have a slight change in the forecast beginning Friday. 
The Weekend

Friday we start to see a slight chance for some thunderstorms developing, but only bringing that up to a 20% chance for now. In other words, don’t get your hopes up! Drought tends to beget drought. Not a huge cool down expected with this however, with highs still in the lower-90’s.  Lows in the mid-70’s for Friday night. Partly cloudy skies will linger into Saturday and Sunday, cooling it down just a tad with highs near 90. By the end of the weekend and into next week high pressure may once again take over, but it appears that this week may be the end of the extremely hot conditions. Let’s hope for some 80s! 

Long term

Pumpkin Spice products may be filling the shelves, but with these 8-14 day outlooks, it seems by the end of September fall-like weather still won’t be here. Precipitation for the mid-south is “near average” (which might actually mean some rain will fall!),but to our north in the Plains it is looking to be even drier. The temperature map is showing about a 50-60% probability that our temps will be above average. Don’t unpack those sweaters quite yet, but rather appreciate the last couple of pool days we can squeeze out of this season!

An 8-14 day outlook for precipitation probabilities in relation to our average. Memphis is considered normal (not above or below average) for the next 2 weeks. (NWS)
An 8-14 day outlook for temperature probabilities in relation to our average. Memphis is predicted to have above average temperatures (50-60% above) for the next 2 weeks. (NWS)

A final note…

This was a bittersweet blog post, because it is my last one with MWN. I am very happy to announce that I have accepted my first on-air position as a meteorologist down on the Gulf Coast in Mobile, AL at the WALA FOX10 station. I will be working in the evenings alongside the Chief Meteorologist. I have had a wonderful time living in Memphis and interning for MWN. I appreciate all of our loyal followers who interacted with me through the social media platforms. Also a huge thank you to Erik, who helped me develop as a meteorologist and also assisted in my social media presence growing. I enjoyed my time in the mid-south, and I will come back to visit plenty. Thank you to everyone!

Jennifer Lambers
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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