October 2019 Climate Data for Memphis, TN

October Climate Recap

The hottest September on record bled into the first week of October with five of the first six days reaching 89 degrees or higher. In fact, the high on the first three days of the month was 96 degrees or hotter! However, a pattern change brought cooler weather and by the 11th, nearly every day for the remainder of the month averaged below normal, culminating in our first fall freeze on Halloween morning with a high remaining in the 40s that day. 

The U.S. temperature anomaly (departure from normal) for the month of October shows relative warmth east of the Mississippi River into TX and well below normal temperatures across the northern and western portions of the country. (WxBell)

In addition, October started in a drought for the metro after almost no rain fell in September. Mother Nature made up for lost time in October, setting a new rainfall record for the month and beating the previous record by over two inches! In fact, there were five days that saw over 1″ of rain and two with over 3″ of rain, both of which set daily rainfall records. Severe weather occurred on the morning of the 21st when a line of severe storms brought widespread wind damage across the metro, as well as a confirmed EF-1 tornado that touched down at the airport and moved into southeast Memphis. The storm system prompted Severe Thunderstorm and Tornado Warnings. In addition, some minor flash flooding occurred on a couple of days that received very heavy rainfall.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 64.0 degrees (0.1 degrees below average)
Average high temperature: 73.8 degrees (0.6 degrees below average)
Average low temperature: 54.2 degrees (0.4 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 98 degrees (3rd)
Coolest temperature: 32 degrees (31st)
Heating Degrees Days: 147 (27 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 121 (29 above  average)
Records set or tied: The first three days of the month all set record high temperatures – 96 degrees on the 1st, 97 degrees on the 2nd, and 98 degrees on the 3rd.
Comments: Four days recorded a high temperature of 90 degrees or warmer, 3.7 days more than the average for the month. One day also reached a low of 32 degrees.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 12.95″ (8.97″ above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 11 (3.5 days above average)
Wettest 24-hour period: 3.39″ (6th)
Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: The month was the wettest October on record in Memphis. Daily rainfall records were set on the 6th (3.39″) and 26th (3.01″).
Comments: Two days saw a total of more than 3 inches of rain each, while five days recorded more than an inch.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: West/53 mph (21st)
Average wind: 7.1 mph
Average relative humidity: 71%
Average sky cover: 50%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 58.4 degrees
Average high temperature: 69.2 degrees
Average low temperature: 48.9 degrees
Warmest temperature: 86.5 degrees (10th)
Coolest temperature: 31.4 degrees (31st)
Comments: Temperature data was only recorded from the 6th through the 31st of the month following station relocation.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 10.04″ (automated rain gauge), 11.68″ (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 12
Wettest date: 2.33″ (26th) (via automated gauge)
Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: West/30 mph (21st)
Average relative humidity: 79%
Average barometric pressure: 30.03 in. Hg

Comments: The above data was only recorded from the 6th through the 31st of the month following station relocation.

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.02 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 72%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.26 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 66%

MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook – November

The November climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Below average temperatures are expected across the northern tier of the nation from the High Plains to New England with slightly below average temperatures through the Ohio and Mississippi River Valleys into the Southern Plains. Above normal temperatures are likely to be found in the western U.S., most pronounced west of the Rockies. Odds favor slightly below average temperatures for Memphis in November. Memphis averages 53.2 degrees for the month, or about eleven degrees cooler than October.

The forecast is mixed as far as precipitation is concerned across the country. Drier than normal weather is expected for the Inter-Mountain West into the southern Rockies, as well as the Mid-Mississippi Valley. For Memphis, odds favor below average rainfall, which historically averages about five and one-half inches in November.

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