Thanksgiving and Black Friday shopping a wet mess?

It’s Thanksgiving week which means lots of food, family, and that dreaded shopping on Black Friday.  [ Editor’s Note: Sorry ladies, you can already tell a male wrote this. 😉 ] Over the last week we’ve had below normal temperatures, but some pleasant days thrown in. Everyone is in agreement that yesterday was nasty. It didn’t even hit 50 with a tough stratus deck and nasty mist that came in spurts. 

Given that it is a holiday week with abundant rain chances and temps averaging around or below normal that’s usually not good news. Tuesday we are expecting a cold front to come through and bring some heavy rain showers with a slight chance of thunderstorms. On Thanksgiving we could get some afternoon/evening rain showers, with Black Friday having a chance of showers as well. Saturday another cold front is expected to come through and bring more heavy rain with a slight chance of thunderstorms.

Monday through Wednesday

Monday we are expecting temperatures to be in the mid 60s with winds at about 10 mph from the south. It will be very nice during the day so if you are off work, make sure to take advantage of it and get a breath of the fresh fall air. Monday evening clouds will increase along with a slight chance of rain as a cold front approaches. Monday night lows are only expected to get down to the mid 50s due to the cold front approach. 
Tuesday we are expecting highs in the mid 60s along with a cold front bringing a decent amount of rain to the Memphis area. Totals are expected to range form half an inch to three-quarters of an inch. The rain and cold front should move out late Tuesday, making for a chilly day on Wednesday. Due to the passage of the cold front, highs will only get to the mid 50s on Wednesday, but there will be a brisk northerly breeze making it feel a little cooler than it actually is. Wednesday night lows are expected to drop into the lower 40s with sky cover increasing. 
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), or total rainfall, from late Sunday through late Wednesday, shows rain totals expected to be from half an inch to about three-quarters of an inch. Most of that should fall on Tuesday. (WPC) 

Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Saturday

Unfortunately it looks to be a dreary Thanksgiving day, so stay inside and get stuffed with as much food as you can! Temperatures will only peak at around 50 with a chance of showers, the highest chance in the afternoon. Thursday night temperatures will only get down to the mid 40s with clouds overhead and rain chances continuing.

Black Friday will be much of the same story, except  a little warmer, a high around 60, and rain chances that will stay with us. Even if it is raining on Black Friday I do not think it will stop all you crazy shoppers from getting your holiday gifts. Friday night lows are expected to get down to the mid 40s with that cloud deck still sticking with us. [Editor’s Note: we’ll also be closely watching the forecast for the Memphis Tigers football game versus Cincinnati Friday afternoon. Crossing our fingers that the best rain chances hold off until Friday night. Go Euro model!]

Saturday we are looking at another cold front expected to come through and bring heavy rain showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms. Highs on Saturday are expected to be in the mid 60s because of the southerly winds providing the “juice” for the rain. Saturday night lows are expected to get down to the lower 40s.
The Quantitative Precipitation Forecast (QPF), or total rainfall, from this Sunday through early next Sunday, shows rain totals expected to be from about two to three inches.  Overall, a fairly wet week is in store. (WPC) 

Historical Look at a Weather Record for Memphis

Some of you may have noticed on the November 21st climate post that we had a daily rainfall record of 10.32″ in 1934. That’s crazy, right?! Well, with some digging by both myself and Erik, we found the daily weather maps from November 21st and 22nd of that year. What looks to have happened is a slow-moving cutoff low pressure system pulled copious amounts of moisture north from the Gulf. We believe this led to training of thunderstorms that resulted in 10.32″ of rain on November 21st, 1934. This was the most rain ever recorded for a single day in Memphis!
Daily weather map from November 21st, 1934 showing a low pressure system centered near Dallas, Texas and the thunderstorm symbol over Memphis. (WPC Archives)
Daily weather map from November 22nd, 1934 showing a low pressure system centered over southeastern Wisconsin, with some cloud cover still over Memphis. (WPC Archives)

Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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