Is fall here to stay? It appears so! And #TeamMWN says goodbye to an intern…

Over the last week we saw pleasant temperatures followed by rain from the remnants of tropical storm Beta. Last weekend was very nice with temperatures overnight being cool, and daytime highs reaching right around 80. The middle part of the week we saw rain from the remnants of Beta, totaling to just over 3/4 of an inch (0.83″). Over the next week we’ll see some rain, but it looks like the cooler temperatures are here to stay!

This Weekend

After only topping out right around 70 today with overcast skies, we are expecting mostly cloudy conditions overnight. Due to the overnight cloud cover and elevated dewpoints, the lows will only drop to the mid 60s. Saturday will be much better, after possible morning fog. Clouds are expected to clear somewhat, so we’ll see partly cloudy skies and high temperatures near 80. Saturday night and into Sunday morning the lows will drop to the mid 60s, with mostly clear conditions. Sunday will be partly cloudy, as we top out in the mid 80s. There is also a slight chance of an afternoon shower (mostly in north MS), but it shouldn’t be anything to worry about. Heading into Monday, overnight lows will drop to the mid 60s once again with a possible shower by morning.
Monday and Tuesday

Monday we will see temperatures reach the upper 70s, as showers and a few thunderstorms arrive with a passing cold front. One nice by product of the cold front is overnight lows heading into Tuesday will drop to the mid 50s! If it were me, I’d crack my windows open, but I’m not sure how cold tolerant y’all are down here. [Editor’s note: Max is from Maryland. He’s still acclimating to hot summers, but has the “y’all” down pretty good!] The cold front that is expected to come through Monday will also make Tuesday very pleasant, as temperatures are expected to reach near 70. Skies will be partly cloudy during the daytime, with those kind of conditions continuing overnight. Tuesday night and into Wednesday lows will drop to the upper 50s…so maybe crack the windows again. 
This is the expected surface chart for Monday morning, per the Weather Prediction Center (WPC). They are predicting a rather strong cold front to cross the area Monday, bringing some showers and thunderstorms.


Hump day through Friday

Wednesday rain chances are kind of up in the air with possibility of stout upper level system affecting the area. Unfortunately, the models aren’t agreeing on how its track or strength. Therefore we’re going to stick with a chance of showers on Wednesday, though it could be wetter if the European model wins out, with temperatures topping out in the low 70s. Going into Thursday, overnight lows will drop to the mid 50s again. Thursday skies will be partly cloudy, and temperatures will top out near 70. Heading into Friday morning, we are in store for a chilly night. Overnight lows are expected to drop near 50 with mostly clear conditions. It’s possible we’ll be seeing our first lows in the 40s outside the city in about a week!
What can we expect in the long term?

The long term temperature outlook looks very promising for the Memphis area. The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) is predicting both below average temperatures, and below average precipitation for the first week or two of October.
This is the temperature and precipitation outlook for October 1st-5th. It shows Memphis will most likely have both below average temperatures and precipitation. 

This is the temperature and precipitation outlook for October 3rd-9th. It also shows Memphis will probably have both below average temperatures and precipitation. 

Reflection


Last, I want to reflect on my time with MWN. Over the past year I have had the great opportunity of working for MemthisWeather.net under Erik. He’s been a great boss, and I’ve learned so much from him. One of the big skills I learned is how to better communicate with the general public. I’m sure it will be very applicable for my future endeavors. I’m sad to leave MWN, but I feel it is the right thing for me to do. Erik and the whole team at MWN have my upmost respect, and I wish nothing but the best for them.
[ Editor’s Note: Max will be finishing up his graduate studies at Mississippi State University in the spring and heading on to his first “real” job in atmospheric sciences thereafter. He’s been with MWN for a year and has served me, and all of YOU, very well. We will miss him a great deal, but wish Max nothing but the best in his future endeavors! /EP ]
Max Magness
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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