A little of everything in this week’s forecast!

Two weeks ago it was flooding rains over southeast AR and north MS. This past week, it dried up completely and the first 90 degree day of the year was followed by several more. To end the week, Tropical Storm (briefly) Claudette moved by to our south and is now moving through the Carolinas on a path back into the western Atlantic, leaving humidity in its wake, but no rain locally. This week, we’ll get a little of everything!

Forecast Track of Claudette over the coming days. (NHC)

Monday – Stormy

The first official day of summer brings more humid weather with temperatures barely making it down to the mid 70s by morning. As a cold front approaches, that atmospheric moisture will combine with colder air aloft to cause instability to rise, setting the stage for numerous thunderstorms, particularly in the mid to late-afternoon hours. Given the unstable air, but a lack of strong wind aloft, a few storms could be strong to marginally severe ahead of the front. The main risk is some strong wind from thunderstorm downdrafts, as well as very heavy rain. The front moves through before sunset with lingering showers into the early overnight. Rainfall totals will be welcome, but not necessarily excessive – 1-2″ seems likely.
A Marginal Risk (level 1 of 5) of severe weather is forecast for Monday. A couple of storms could produce strong wind gusts. (NOAA/SPC)

A Slight Risk (2 of 4) of excessive rainfall or flash flooding is forecast for Monday. Rainfall totals of 1-2″ are likely from mid-day Monday through midnight. (NOAA/WPC)

Tuesday-Wednesday – Cooler with low humidity

Monday’s front is actually quite potent for this time of year and ushers in unseasonably dry and cooler air for Tuesday and Wednesday. Lows drop to near 60 each morning and may dip into the upper 50s Wednesday morning in rural areas around the metro. Mostly sunny skies and temperatures near 80 will greet you Tuesday afternoon – quite a nice reprieve for this time of year! It’ll be a little warmer Wednesday afternoon with highs in the mid 80s but still comfortable humidity levels and abundant sunshine. Our gold star day of the week is Tuesday with Wednesday a closer second!
Forecast dewpoints for midday Tuesday are in the mid 50s in the metro – very comfortable for mid-June! (NWS)

Thursday-Friday – Muggies return

As wind shifts back to the south and hot high pressure aloft builds in, humidity rises and so do the temperatures. Slightly warmer Thursday morning lows in the upper 60s lead to highs back near 90 in the afternoon. Even muggier air is in place by Friday morning when lows are in the mid 70s and highs just above 90. Both days will be sticky enough that a few daytime showers or thunderstorms are possible, especially to our north on Friday.

Saturday-Sunday

Outdoor plans for next weekend could be in jeopardy as another front dives south into the region. With humid and warm air in place, showers and thunderstorms seem a good bet with more instances of heavy rain possible. Timing is uncertain this far out, but plan for lows in the 70s, highs in the 80s, and decent chances of rain each day.
Next weekend’s forecast rainfall from the European ensemble is near 2″ for the Memphis area. (WxBell)

Week 2 “Too Far Out”-look

The temperature and precipitation outlooks for the following week (leading towards July 4 weekend) appear favorable if you aren’t a fan of excessive heat or rain. Odds favor below normal temperatures, which typically average in the low 90s and low 70s for highs and lows respectively, and perhaps slightly above average rain for the week, as depicted below.
The outlook for June 28-July 4 shows below average temperatures for much of the eastern U.S. (NOAA/CPC)

The outlook for June 28-July 4 shows slightly above average temperatures for the eastern U.S. (NOAA/CPC)

For the latest forecast anytime, check out the MWN Forecast in our mobile apps, or click here.
I hope all of the dads out there had a great Sunday!
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist

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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

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