Cooler temps and wet weather on the way

While it was hot out there today, it’s nothing unexpected this time of year. Average highs are in the low 90s, and we were right around that today. We’re now about halfway through the month and so far it has actually been cooler than average here in the Mid-South and for much of the southern U.S. as a whole! 

Temperature anomaly (departure from average) for the month of July so far across the U.S. (WeatherBell)

We are very lucky that we haven’t seen the extreme heat western states have been experiencing – some areas in the west are seeing high temperatures more than 15 degrees above average for the month, yikes! Wildfire season has already been awful out there and will only get worse in the coming months as the heat intensifies the terrible drought. High in the atmosphere wildfire smoke could blow over our area from western fires at times for the rest of the summer and into the fall, which could make our skies hazy and our sunsets more red periodically. Keep an eye out!

Trough sets up this weekend

More wetness and below average temperatures are on the way as we end this week and start the next one. Unfortunately, this means the weekend is looking pretty wet. We have seen persistent areas of low pressure that have affected the Memphis area all through the late spring and early summer, and as we head into mid-summer that trend looks to continue. By the weekend, a trough, or a dip in the overall atmospheric flow across the United States, will once again bring a period of wet weather to the region. This “dip” will be accompanied by a weak front that will stall out near or just south of the area and provide the focus for multiple rounds of showers and storms this weekend and early next week. No drought concerns here for the foreseeable future!

The European model depiction of the weak mid-level trough that will keep our weather unsettled and cooler than normal this weekend. No extreme heat on the horizon locally! (WeatherBell)

Friday

Friday looks to be a fairly typical summer day, with rain chances a bit higher than the past few days, particularly late afternoon and evening. As we quickly warm up into the low 90s again Friday afternoon, scattered showers and storms will pop up across the area. the Storm Prediction Center doesn’t have our area highlighted for potential severe weather so general thunderstorms with heavy rain will be the primary threat. The sagging weak front begins to have more influence over the area beginning Friday night, with rain chances actually increasing a bit. 

Weekend

Showers and storms will continue through the overnight hours and into Saturday morning. Saturday looks quite wet overall. We’ll wake up to widespread showers and storms which will continue into the afternoon and evening, perhaps tapering into the afternoon and evening to scattered just rain showers. The clouds and rain will hold our temps down in the mid-80s, once again several degrees below average. 

Sunday looks to be just as wet, so it’s a good weekend for indoor activities. Some of the storms could contain heavy rainfall, so flash and urban flooding could be a concern for some spots, especially if the same areas see repeated heavy rainfall after receiving a good amount Friday night and Saturday. Highs will only top out in the low to mid 80s on Sunday, and it’s looking quite similar for Monday, with widespread rain and storms and highs in the low to mid 80s. 

Next week

As the front moves south of our area and the trough moves east, rain chances should diminish a bit as we head towards the middle of the week with more typical scattered afternoon showers and storms. Highs will slowly rebound back into the upper 80s to near 90 degrees by Wednesday. All of this added moisture will only increase humidity levels across the area, so feels like temps will be quite high in the afternoon sun. Rainfall totals will likely be wide ranging across the area as it will be highly dependent on storm location. A couple inches of rain is a good bet for all of us, with some areas likely seeing more and some seeing a bit less. As always, when thunder roars, go indoors, and stay tuned for any updates should a Severe Thunderstorm or Flash Flood Warning be issued this weekend.

The NWS Weather Prediction Center forecast of total rainfall through Monday shows that much of the area is likely to pick up 1.5-2.0″ of rain with this next system. (WeatherBell)

Erik Proseus

MWN Meteorologist

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