July 2021 Climate Report for Memphis, TN


July Climate Recap

Temperature trends from the previous few months continued in July with nearly every day in the first three weeks averaging cooler than normal. In fact, the typically hot July 4th weekend featured morning lows in the mid 60s and highs in the mid 80s. The cool pattern changed heading into the last week of the month as hot, dry and humid summer weather finally arrived. The result was an average temperatures that was a little more than a degree below average for the month. The number of 90 degree days ended 5 days below normal at 17 days. 
Precipitation ended the month almost an inch above average at 5.73″, with most of it falling prior to the heat arriving in the last third of the month. The only severe weather of the month occurred  around mid-day on the 9th as very heavy rain trained along the TN/MS state line, prompting Flash Flood  and Severe Thunderstorm Warnings and reports of flooding in DeSoto and northwest Marshall Counties. Isolated flash flooding also occurred on the late afternoon of the 1st in western Shelby County. Severe Thunderstorm Warnings also were issued in the metro on the 10th and 11th with no severe weather reports. 

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Average temperature: 81.6 degrees (1.2 degrees below average) 
Average high temperature: 89.6 degrees (2.3 degrees below average) 
Average low temperature: 73.6 degrees (0.0 degrees below average) 
Warmest temperature: 96 degrees (28th, 30th, 31st) 
Coolest temperature: 65 degrees (4th) 
Heating Degrees Days: 0 (0 above average)
Cooling Degree Days: 525 (25 below average) 
Records set or tied: None
Comments: There were 17 days with high temperatures above 90 degrees, which is 5 days below average for July.
Monthly total: 5.73″ (0.91″ above average) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 13 (3.5 days above average) 
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.89″ (9th) 
Snowfall: 0.0″
Records set or tied: Daily record on July 9th (1.89″)
Comments: Five days recorded precipitation of more than an one-half inch, while July averages 3.3 days.
Peak wind: East/51 mph (18th) 
Average wind: 6.7 mph 
Average relative humidity: 73% 
Average sky cover: 51% 
 Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Average temperature: 80.2 degrees 
Average high temperature: 90.5 degrees 
Average low temperature: 71.6 degrees 
Warmest temperature: 98.7 degrees (31st) 
Coolest temperature: 60.0 degrees (4th) 
Comments: None 
Monthly total: 5.05″ (automated rain gauge), 5.24″(manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge) 
Days with measurable precipitation: 9
Wettest date: 2.83″ (11th) (via automated gauge) 
Snowfall: 0.0″
Comments: None

Peak wind: North/19mph (27th)
Average relative humidity: 81% 
Average barometric pressure: 29.97in. Hg

Comments: None

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.


MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 1.54 degrees 
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 84% 
MWN average dewpoint error: 1.24 degrees 
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 88% 
MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

Climate Outlook – August 2021

The August climate outlook for the United States from the Climate Prediction Center is shown below. Above average temperatures are forecast for the western U.S. across the northern tier into the Northeast with highest odds across the Northern Plains. Below average temperatures are forecast in the Southern Plains to Lower Mississippi Valley. Odds favor very near average temperatures for Memphis with a 35% chance of below average temperatures and a 32% chance of above average conditions. The average temperature for August is 82.1 degrees, just slightly below the July average.

Precipitation is expected to be above normal for much of the southeastern U.S. east into the Mid-Atlantic and north into the Ohio Valley, with highest odds in the eastern Carolinas. Additional above average precipitation is forecast for the Desert Southwest. Below average precipitation is forecast for the Northern Plains. For Memphis, odds are slightly in favor of above average precipitation (36%) versus a 31% chance of below average precipitation. Rainfall historically averages only 3.37 inches.
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Complete MWN Forecast: MemphisWeather.net on the mobile web or via the MWN mobile app 
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MWN is a NOAA Weather Ready Nation Ambassador Meteorologist Erik Proseus is an NWA Digital Seal Holder

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