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The following table demonstrates the accuracy of the MemphisWeather.Net temperature forecasts as
compared to various computer weather models for Memphis and the National Weather Service forecast
for Memphis. The numbers listed are the average error (in °F) of the temperature forecast by month
for each source of data. The rank (1-5) of each forecast is listed in parentheses after the average error,
with the most accurate forecast receiving a (1).
Jump to: [
1998 | 1999 |
2000 | 2001 |
2002 | 2003 |
2004 | 2005 |
2006 | 2007 |
2008 | 2009 |
2010 ]
[ 2011 |
2012 | 2013 |
2014 | 2015 |
2016 | 2017 |
2018 | 2019 |
2020 | 2021 |
2022 | 2023 ]
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Aviation Model (AVN) |
Medium Range Forecast (MRF) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 1998 |
| January |
3.17 (5) |
3.00 (4) |
2.96 (3) |
2.66 (2) |
2.47 (1) |
| February |
3.23 (2) |
3.55 (5) |
3.50 (4) |
3.28 (3) |
2.99 (1) |
| March |
3.35 (3) |
4.62 (5) |
4.60 (4) |
3.32 (2) |
3.17 (1) |
| April |
3.39 (3) |
3.75 (4) |
3.92 (5) |
3.16 (2) |
3.02 (1) |
| May |
2.59 (3) |
3.08 (4) |
3.24 (5) |
2.38 (2) |
2.21 (1) |
| June |
2.04 (2) |
2.73 (4) |
2.78 (5) |
2.10 (3) |
1.89 (1) |
| July |
2.67 (5) |
2.46 (3) |
2.52 (4) |
2.28 (2) |
2.15 (1) |
| August |
1.76 (2) |
1.83 (T3) |
1.83 (T3) |
1.84 (5) |
1.74 (1) |
| September |
2.62 (3) |
3.75 (4) |
3.96 (5) |
2.59 (2) |
2.47 (1) |
| October |
2.99 (3) |
3.86 (4) |
3.87 (5) |
2.84 (2) |
2.81 (1) |
| November |
3.56 (5) |
3.03 (3) |
3.23 (4) |
2.93 (2) |
2.92 (1) |
| December |
3.76 (3) |
4.21 (4) |
4.28 (5) |
3.53 (2) |
3.37 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.93 (3) |
3.32 (4) |
3.39 (5) |
2.74 (2) |
2.60 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Aviation Model (AVN) |
Medium Range Forecast (MRF) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 1999 |
| January |
4.77 (3) |
4.78 (4) |
4.94 (5) |
4.31 (2) |
3.91 (1) |
| February |
4.40 (3) |
4.25 (2) |
4.41 (4) |
4.49 (5) |
4.15 (1) |
| March |
3.13 (4) |
3.08 (3) |
2.96 (1) |
2.99 (2) |
3.29 (5) |
| April |
3.70 (3) |
3.93 (4) |
4.06 (5) |
3.42 (2) |
3.07 (1) |
| May |
2.36 (3) |
2.41 (4) |
2.44 (5) |
2.03 (2) |
1.84 (1) |
| June |
2.00 (2) |
2.75 (4) |
2.85 (5) |
2.06 (3) |
1.86 (1) |
| July |
1.75 (3) |
1.78 (4) |
1.87 (5) |
1.65 (2) |
1.35 (1) |
| August |
2.04 (1) |
3.08 (4) |
3.22 (5) |
2.35 (3) |
2.20 (2) |
| September |
2.63 (2) |
4.27 (4) |
4.44 (5) |
2.69 (3) |
2.58 (1) |
| October |
3.04 (3) |
4.10 (4) |
4.12 (5) |
3.00 (2) |
2.87 (1) |
| November |
2.72 (2) |
3.13 (4) |
3.41 (5) |
2.81 (3) |
2.66 (1) |
| December |
3.00 (1) |
3.35 (4) |
3.56 (5) |
3.20 (3) |
3.10 (2) |
| YEAR |
2.96 (3) |
3.41 (4) |
3.52 (5) |
2.92 (2) |
2.74 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Aviation Model (AVN/MAV) |
Medium Range Forecast (MRF) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 2000 |
| January |
4.25 (4) |
4.23 (3) |
4.30 (5) |
3.71 (2) |
3.57 (1) |
| February |
3.97 (4) |
3.96 (3) |
3.98 (5) |
3.70 (T1) |
3.70 (T1) |
| March |
3.67 (5) |
3.41 (T3) |
3.33 (2) |
3.41 (T3) |
3.31 (1) |
| April |
3.15 (3) |
3.25 (T4) |
3.25 (T4) |
3.10 (2) |
2.97 (1) |
| May |
2.55 (4) |
2.47 (2) |
2.62 (5) |
2.35 (2) |
2.07 (1) |
| June |
2.27 (3) |
2.28 (4) |
2.31 (5) |
2.12 (2) |
1.98 (1) |
| July |
1.96 (3) |
2.02 (5) |
1.90 (2) |
1.97 (4) |
1.87 (1) |
| August |
2.47 (5) |
2.21 (4) |
2.11 (3) |
1.90 (2) |
1.78 (1) |
| September |
3.69 (5) |
2.87 (2) |
3.04 (3) |
3.08 (4) |
2.58 (1) |
| October |
2.98 (5) |
2.35 (2) |
2.42 (3) |
2.61 (4) |
2.34 (1) |
| November |
3.36 (3) |
3.60 (4) |
3.80 (5) |
3.35 (2) |
3.14 (1) |
| December |
3.97 (5) |
3.02 (3) |
3.47 (4) |
2.92 (2) |
2.70 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.19 (5) |
2.97 (3) |
3.04 (4) |
2.85 (2) |
2.67 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
New Aviation Model (MAV) |
New Medium Range Forecast (MEX) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 2001 |
| January |
3.36 (3) |
3.52 (5) |
3.45 (4) |
3.19 (1) |
3.27 (2) |
| February |
4.09 (4) |
3.83 (3) |
4.20 (5) |
3.69 (2) |
3.36 (1) |
| March |
3.09 (4) |
3.04 (3) |
3.16 (5) |
2.92 (2) |
2.83 (1) |
| April |
2.72 (5) |
2.25 (2) |
2.31 (T3) |
2.31 (T3) |
2.04 (1) |
| May |
2.53 (3) |
2.94 (5) |
2.56 (4) |
2.39 (2) |
2.25 (1) |
| June |
2.14 (5) |
1.91 (3) |
2.05 (4) |
1.88 (2) |
1.60 (1) |
| July |
1.64
(1) |
2.02 (4) |
2.06 (5) |
1.81 (3) |
1.75 (2) |
| August |
1.74 (3) |
1.88 (4) |
2.16 (5) |
1.73 (2) |
1.68(1) |
| September |
2.36 (T3) |
2.36 (T3) |
2.46 (5) |
2.20 (2) |
2.14(1) |
| October |
3.05 (5) |
2.41 (3) |
2.40 (2) |
2.58 (4) |
2.15(1) |
| November |
2.79 (3) |
2.90 (4) |
3.26 (5) |
2.57 (2) |
2.50(1) |
| December |
3.44 (2) |
4.29 (4) |
4.47 (5) |
3.75 (3) |
3.43(1) |
| YEAR |
2.75 (3) |
2.78 (4) |
2.92 (5) |
2.58 (2) |
2.42 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
New Aviation Model (MAV) |
New Medium Range Forecast (MEX) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
Erik's Forecast |
| 2002 |
| January |
5.01 (4) |
4.59 (3) |
5.03 (5) |
3.81 (2) |
3.66 (1) |
| February |
2.71 (T1) |
3.15 (4) |
3.48 (5) |
3.12 (3) |
2.71 (T1) |
| March |
3.96 (5) |
3.58 (2) |
3.82 (4) |
3.65 (3) |
3.35 (1) |
| April |
3.19 (5) |
2.82 (2) |
2.90 (3) |
2.97 (4) |
2.47 (1) |
| May |
3.07 (4) |
2.69 (2) |
3.45 (5) |
2.73 (3) |
2.60 (1) |
| June |
1.81 (3) |
1.82 (4) |
1.87 (5) |
1.63 (2) |
1.39 (1) |
| July |
2.23 (2) |
2.24 (3) |
2.40 (5) |
2.28 (4) |
2.03 (1) |
| August |
1.74 (3) |
1.59 (2) |
1.80 (4) |
1.96 (5) |
1.55 (1) |
| September |
2.78 (5) |
2.40 (2) |
2.69 (4) |
2.44 (3) |
2.02 (1) |
| October |
3.66 (5) |
3.17 (2) |
3.55 (4) |
3.50 (3) |
3.03 (1) |
| November |
3.24 (3) |
3.34 (4) |
3.49 (5) |
3.10 (2) |
2.79 (1) |
| December |
3.16 (4) |
2.96 (3) |
3.17 (5) |
2.89 (2) |
2.61 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.04 (4) |
2.86 (3) |
3.14 (5) |
2.84 (2) |
2.52 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
New Aviation Model (MAV) |
ETA Model (ETA) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2003 |
| January |
3.54 (3) |
3.59 (4) |
-- |
3.37 (2) |
3.15 (1) |
| February |
4.05 (5) |
2.85 (T1) |
-- |
3.11 (3) |
3.15 (T1) |
| March |
3.45 (3) |
3.59 (4) |
-- |
3.23 (2) |
3.14 (1) |
| April |
2.77 (3) |
2.79 (4) |
-- |
2.59 (2) |
2.39 (1) |
| May |
2.56 (4) |
2.44 (3) |
2.60 (5) |
2.08 (2) |
1.95 (1) |
| June |
2.72 (4) |
2.38 (2) |
3.00 (5) |
2.62 (3) |
2.34 (1) |
| July |
1.48 (2) |
1.65 (3) |
1.77 (5) |
1.69 (4) |
1.45 (1) |
| August |
1.82 (4) |
1.87 (5) |
1.77 (2) |
1.81 (3) |
1.58 (1) |
| September |
3.18 (5) |
2.29 (1) |
3.06 (4) |
2.80 (3) |
2.50 (2) |
| October |
2.85 (4) |
2.84 (3) |
3.54 (5) |
2.73 (2) |
2.33 (1) |
| November |
3.84 (4) |
3.54 (3) |
4.38 (5) |
3.26 (2) |
2.98 (1) |
| December |
3.26 (4) |
2.86 (2) |
4.30 (5) |
2.90 (3) |
2.57 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.96 (4) |
2.72 (3) |
3.05 (5) |
2.68 (2) |
2.44 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
ETA Model (ETA) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2004 |
| January |
3.78 (4) |
3.16 (3) |
4.96 (5) |
3.10 (2) |
3.02 (1) |
| February |
2.77 (3) |
2.81 (4) |
3.24 (5) |
2.69 (2) |
2.50 (1) |
| March |
3.79 (5) |
3.30 (3) |
3.03 (1) |
3.36 (4) |
3.07 (2) |
| April |
3.01 (5) |
2.45 (2) |
2.77 (4) |
2.56 (3) |
2.26 (1) |
| May |
2.60 (5) |
1.96 (2) |
2.06 (T3) |
2.06 (T3) |
1.73 (1) |
| June |
1.91 (2) |
2.12 (4) |
2.17 (5) |
1.97 (3) |
1.78 (1) |
| July |
1.95 (2) |
2.06 (4) |
2.07 (5) |
2.04 (3) |
1.74 (1) |
| August |
2.00 (4) |
1.66 (2) |
2.17 (5) |
1.88 (3) |
1.59 (1) |
| September |
2.34 (5) |
1.93 (3) |
1.90 (2) |
1.95 (4) |
1.74 (1) |
| October |
4.23 (5) |
3.99 (4) |
3.53 (3) |
3.47 (2) |
3.29 (1) |
| November |
3.28 (3) |
3.43 (4) |
3.20 (2) |
3.46 (5) |
3.06 (1) |
| December |
3.12 (2) |
3.45 (5) |
3.27 (3) |
3.31 (4) |
3.03 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.90 (5) |
2.69 (3) |
2.86 (4) |
2.65 (2) |
2.40 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2005 |
| January |
3.64 (4) |
3.19 (3) |
3.65 (5) |
3.08 (2) |
2.89 (1) |
| February |
2.91 (2) |
3.24 (4) |
3.05 (3) |
3.35 (5) |
2.90 (1) |
| March |
3.61 (5) |
3.50 (2) |
3.52 (T3) |
3.52 (T3) |
3.19 (1) |
| April |
3.05 (T2) |
3.23 (4) |
3.31 (5) |
3.05 (T2) |
3.00 (1) |
| May |
2.33 (1) |
2.65 (4) |
2.94 (5) |
2.61 (3) |
2.43 (2) |
| June |
2.09 (2) |
2.66 (4) |
2.69 (5) |
2.19 (3) |
2.02 (1) |
| July |
2.22 (5) |
1.72 (2) |
2.02 (4) |
1.89 (3) |
1.57 (1) |
| August |
2.46 (4) |
2.45 (3) |
2.73 (5) |
2.11 (2) |
1.92 (1) |
| September |
2.81 (5) |
2.23 (2) |
2.43 (T3) |
2.43 (T3) |
2.11 (1) |
| October |
2.44 (3) |
2.73 (5) |
2.60 (4) |
2.37 (2) |
2.05 (1) |
| November |
3.74 (5) |
2.77 (2) |
2.93 (4) |
2.91 (3) |
2.64 (1) |
| December |
3.60 (5) |
3.11 (2) |
3.50 (4) |
3.12 (3) |
2.94 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.91 (4) |
2.79 (3) |
2.95 (5) |
2.72 (2) |
2.47 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2006 |
| January |
3.70 (5) |
3.02 (3) |
3.20 (4) |
2.86 (2) |
2.72 (1) |
| February |
3.04 (4) |
3.06 (5) |
3.00 (3) |
2.68 (2) |
2.56(1) |
| March |
3.57 (T3) |
3.64 (5) |
3.46 (2) |
3.57 (T3) |
3.11(1) |
| April |
3.36 (5) |
2.64 (3) |
3.26 (4) |
2.60 (2) |
2.34(1) |
| May |
3.14 (5) |
2.83 (4) |
2.74 (3) |
2.70 (2) |
2.45(1) |
| June |
1.92 (1) |
1.97 (3) |
2.06 (5) |
1.94 (2) |
2.02 (4) |
| July |
2.09 (4) |
1.95 (3) |
2.37 (5) |
1.81 (2) |
1.74 (1) |
| August |
2.40 (5) |
1.85 (3) |
2.33 (4) |
1.83 (2) |
1.73 (1) |
| September |
3.51 (5) |
2.65 (2) |
3.32 (4) |
2.79 (3) |
2.60 (1) |
| October |
3.51 (5) |
2.65 (2) |
3.32 (4) |
2.79 (3) |
2.60 (1) |
| November |
3.68 (5) |
3.10 (3) |
3.18 (4) |
2.82 (T1) |
2.82 (T1) |
| December |
3.00 (4) |
2.71 (3) |
3.37 (5) |
2.50 (2) |
2.39 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.01 (5) |
2.63 (3) |
2.90 (4) |
2.54 (2) |
2.38 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2007 |
| January |
3.48 (4) |
3.14 (3) |
3.49 (5) |
3.04 (2) |
2.84 (1) |
| February |
3.61 (4) |
3.63 (5) |
3.16 (2) |
3.17 (3) |
2.99 (1) |
| March |
3.99 (5) |
2.96 (3) |
3.11 (4) |
2.92 (2) |
2.59 (1) |
| April |
2.81 (3) |
2.54 (1) |
2.92 (5) |
2.82 (4) |
2.57 (2) |
| May |
2.20 (4) |
2.11 (3) |
2.41 (5) |
1.94 (1) |
1.96 (2) |
| June |
2.34 (4) |
2.13 (3) |
2.76 (5) |
1.94 (2) |
1.85 (1) |
| July |
2.09 (5) |
1.63 (2) |
1.99 (4) |
1.66 (3) |
1.52 (1) |
| August |
2.54 (4) |
2.02 (3) |
3.39 (5) |
1.67 (1) |
1.68 (2) |
| September |
3.64 (4) |
3.02 (3) |
3.76 (5) |
2.94 (2) |
2.79 (1) |
| October |
3.83 (5) |
2.26 (2) |
3.34 (4) |
2.33 (3) |
1.96 (1) |
| November |
2.89 (5) |
2.61 (4) |
2.55 (3) |
2.06 (1) |
2.09 (2) |
| December |
3.34 (3) |
3.58 (5) |
3.41 (4) |
3.25 (2) |
3.09 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.06 (5) |
2.64 (3) |
3.03 (4) |
2.48 (2) |
2.33 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2008 |
| January |
3.95 (4) |
3.74 (2) |
4.07 (5) |
3.77 (3) |
3.62 (1) |
| February |
4.74 (5) |
4.48 (2) |
4.64 (3) |
4.66 (4) |
4.37 (1) |
| March |
3.59 (5) |
2.82 (1) |
3.49 (4) |
3.16 (3) |
2.83 (2) |
| April |
3.12 (4) |
2.71 (3) |
3.13 (5) |
2.57 (2) |
2.50 (1) |
| May |
2.67 (5) |
2.45 (4) |
2.29 (2) |
2.37 (3) |
2.15 (1) |
| June |
1.76 (4) |
2.09 (5) |
1.73 (3) |
1.67 (2) |
1.59 (1) |
| July |
1.81 (3) |
1.88 (5) |
1.85 (4) |
1.63 (2) |
1.46 (1) |
| August |
2.29 (2) |
2.55 (5) |
2.30 (3) |
2.31 (4) |
2.18 (1) |
| September |
2.85 (5) |
2.28 (T2) |
2.79 (4) |
2.28 (T2) |
2.23 (1) |
| October |
2.65 (5) |
2.40 (3) |
2.44 (4) |
2.12 (2) |
1.99 (1) |
| November |
3.13 (1) |
3.55 (5) |
3.26 (4) |
3.16 (T2) |
3.16 (T2) |
| December |
3.49 (4) |
4.31 (5) |
3.18 (2) |
3.22 (3) |
2.93 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.00 (5) |
2.94 (4) |
2.93 (3) |
2.74 (2) |
2.59 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Nested Grid Model (NGM) |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2009 |
| January |
3.22 (4) |
4.09 (5) |
2.98 (1) |
3.12 (3) |
3.05 (2) |
| February |
3.66 (4) |
3.94 (5) |
2.77 (2) |
2.84 (3) |
2.73 (1) |
| March |
--- |
3.18 (4) |
2.78 (2) |
2.88 (3) |
2.73 (1) |
| April |
--- |
2.56 (4) |
2.44 (2) |
2.48 (3) |
2.38 (1) |
| May |
--- |
2.26 (3) |
2.65 (4) |
1.93 (1) |
2.05 (2) |
| June |
--- |
2.32 (4) |
2.16 (3) |
2.03 (2) |
1.92 (1) |
| July |
--- |
2.46 (4) |
2.16 (T2) |
2.16 (T2) |
1.87 (1) |
| August |
--- |
2.30 (4) |
1.77 (3) |
1.76 (2) |
1.60 (1) |
| September |
--- |
2.37 (T2) |
2.58 (4) |
2.37 (T2) |
2.06 (1) |
| October |
--- |
2.82 (3) |
3.48 (4) |
2.55 (2) |
2.37 (1) |
| November |
--- |
2.47 (2) |
2.86 (4) |
2.53 (3) |
2.18 (1) |
| December |
--- |
3.33 (4) |
2.87 (3) |
2.67 (2) |
2.53 (1) |
| YEAR |
3.44 (5) |
2.83 (4) |
2.63 (3) |
2.44 (2) |
2.29 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2010 |
| January |
3.12 (3) |
3.17 (4) |
3.00 (2) |
2.53 (1) |
| February |
2.98 (4) |
2.70 (3) |
2.59 (2) |
2.39 (1) |
| March |
1.72 (2) |
2.60 (4) |
1.93 (3) |
1.71 (1) |
| April |
2.16 (3) |
2.36 (4) |
2.00 (2) |
1.88 (1) |
| May |
1.70 (T2) |
2.14 (4) |
1.70 (T2) |
1.52 (1) |
| June |
1.63 (3) |
1.73 (4) |
1.61 (2) |
1.56 (1) |
| July |
2.03 (4) |
2.01 (3) |
1.71 (2) |
1.67 (1) |
| August |
1.73 (3) |
1.88 (4) |
1.72 (2) |
1.47 (1) |
| September |
2.55 (4) |
2.51 (3) |
2.26 (2) |
2.06 (1) |
| October |
2.64 (3) |
3.28 (4) |
2.57 (2) |
2.41 (1) |
| November |
3.70 (3) |
3.80 (4) |
3.30 (2) |
3.17 (1) |
| December |
2.88 (3) |
3.17 (4) |
2.41 (2) |
2.30 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.41 (3) |
2.61 (4) |
2.23 (2) |
2.05 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2011 |
| January |
3.65 (4) |
3.22 (3) |
3.13 (2) |
2.87 (1) |
| February |
3.68 (4) |
3.41 (3) |
3.36 (2) |
3.25 (1) |
| March |
3.31 (4) |
3.07 (2) |
3.21 (3) |
2.90 (1) |
| April |
2.97 (4) |
2.72 (3) |
2.70 (2) |
2.55 (1) |
| May |
1.87 (T2) |
1.87 (T2) |
1.95 (4) |
1.71 (1) |
| June |
2.13 (4) |
1.97 (3) |
1.94 (2) |
1.78 (1) |
| July |
2.00 (4) |
1.92 (3) |
1.64 (2) |
1.63 (1) |
| August |
3.31 (4) |
3.11 (2) |
3.15 (3) |
2.88 (1) |
| September |
2.31 (2) |
2.74 (4) |
2.43 (3) |
2.22 (1) |
| October |
2.11 (3) |
2.63 (4) |
1.96 (2) |
1.86 (1) |
| November |
3.17 (3) |
3.36 (4) |
3.04 (2) |
2.70 (1) |
| December |
2.42 (2) |
2.78 (4) |
2.52 (3) |
2.23 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.74 (4) |
2.73 (3) |
2.59 (2) |
2.38 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2012 |
| January |
3.16 (3) |
2.91 (2) |
3.18 (4) |
3.31 (5) |
2.88 (1) |
| February |
2.74 (4) |
2.32 (1) |
3.23 (5) |
2.59 (3) |
2.54 (2) |
| March |
2.64 (3) |
2.15 (1) |
3.18 (5) |
2.71 (4) |
2.59 (2) |
| April |
2.55 (3) |
2.62 (4) |
2.82 (5) |
2.26 (2) |
2.11 (1) |
| May |
1.76 (2) |
1.95 (4) |
2.08 (5) |
1.89 (3) |
1.75 (1) |
| June |
1.79 (4) |
1.60 (3) |
1.98 (5) |
1.49 (2) |
1.36 (1) |
| July |
2.17 (3) |
2.35 (4) |
2.72 (5) |
2.06 (2) |
1.88 (1) |
| August |
3.35 (5) |
3.13 (4) |
2.91 (3) |
2.87 (2) |
2.62 (1) |
| September |
2.13 (T3) |
2.00 (2) |
2.32 (5) |
2.13 (T3) |
1.94 (1) |
| October |
2.47 (3) |
2.22 (1) |
2.85 (5) |
2.49 (4) |
2.45 (2) |
| November |
2.42 (3) |
2.67 (4) |
2.87 (5) |
2.33 (2) |
2.14 (1) |
| December |
2.73 (3) |
2.44 (2) |
3.28 (5) |
2.80 (4) |
2.37 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.49 (4) |
2.36 (2) |
2.79 (5) |
2.41 (3) |
2.22 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2013 |
| January |
2.97 (4) |
2.91 (2) |
3.52 (5) |
2.96 (3) |
2.80 (1) |
| February |
2.82 (4) |
2.34 (2) |
3.25 (5) |
2.32 (1) |
2.35 (3) |
| March |
2.97 (4) |
2.77 (2) |
3.11 (5) |
2.84 (3) |
2.68 (1) |
| April |
3.23 (5) |
2.79 (2) |
2.98 (4) |
2.80 (3) |
2.71 (1) |
| May |
2.63 (5) |
2.55 (4) |
2.24 (1) |
2.37 (3) |
2.27 (2) |
| June |
1.95 (4) |
1.72 (3) |
1.96 (5) |
1.53 (2) |
1.43 (1) |
| July |
2.35 (5) |
1.79 (2) |
2.22 (4) |
2.00 (3) |
1.76 (1) |
| August |
2.14 (5) |
1.28 (1) |
1.72 (4) |
1.67 (3) |
1.50 (2) |
| September |
1.84 (3) |
1.54 (1) |
2.05 (5) |
1.92 (4) |
1.64 (2) |
| October |
2.30 (4) |
1.77 (1) |
2.67 (5) |
2.18 (3) |
2.00 (2) |
| November |
2.52 (3) |
2.74 (5) |
2.72 (4) |
2.24 (2) |
2.08 (1) |
| December |
2.60 (2) |
2.65 (3) |
3.48 (5) |
2.69 (4) |
2.39 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.53 (4) |
2.24 (2) |
2.66 (5) |
2.29 (3) |
2.13 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2014 |
| January |
3.32 (4) |
3.58 (5) |
3.10 (3) |
2.93 (2) |
2.78 (1) |
| February |
3.70 (4) |
2.87 (1) |
3.86 (5) |
3.62 (3) |
3.26 (2) |
| March |
2.85 (4) |
2.75 (1) |
3.38 (5) |
2.82 (3) |
2.76 (2) |
| April |
2.62 (4) |
2.84 (5) |
2.31 (1) |
2.61 (3) |
2.41 (2) |
| May |
1.90 (3) |
1.86 (2) |
2.29 (5) |
2.05 (4) |
1.61 (1) |
| June |
2.19 (5) |
1.35 (1) |
1.91 (4) |
1.80 (3) |
1.61 (2) |
| July |
2.60 (5) |
1.53 (1) |
2.09 (4) |
2.00 (3) |
1.92 (2) |
| August |
1.76 (5) |
1.28 (2) |
1.65 (4) |
1.34 (3) |
1.27 (1) |
| September |
1.87 (4) |
1.63 (1) |
1.97 (5) |
1.65 (3) |
1.64 (2) |
| October |
1.97 (3) |
2.08 (4) |
2.10 (5) |
1.90 (2) |
1.66 (1) |
| November |
2.92 (4) |
2.62 (2) |
3.24 (5) |
2.70 (3) |
2.51 (1) |
| December |
2.97 (4) |
2.72 (3) |
3.01 (5) |
2.67 (2) |
2.39 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.56 (4) |
2.26 (2) |
2.58 (5) |
2.34 (3) |
2.17 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2015 |
| January |
3.26 (4) |
3.16 (3) |
3.29 (5) |
2.88 (2) |
2.85 (1) |
| February |
2.93 (3) |
3.13 (5) |
2.99 (4) |
2.65 (2) |
2.41 (1) |
| March |
3.79 (5) |
3.10 (1) |
3.64 (3) |
3.65 (4) |
3.32 (2) |
| April |
2.86 (4) |
2.76 (3) |
2.98 (5) |
2.72 (2) |
2.60 (1) |
| May |
2.42 (4) |
2.40 (3) |
2.46 (5) |
2.39 (2) |
2.23 (1) |
| June |
1.95 (3) |
2.03 (4) |
2.18 (5) |
1.70 (2) |
1.62 (1) |
| July |
1.83 (3) |
1.88 (4) |
1.98 (5) |
1.67 (2) |
1.58 (1) |
| August |
1.84 (2) |
2.16 (5) |
2.15 (4) |
1.88 (3) |
1.80 (1) |
| September |
1.52 (2) |
1.67 (3) |
1.95 (5) |
1.69 (4) |
1.48 (1) |
| October |
2.98 (4) |
2.42 (1) |
3.65 (5) |
2.72 (3) |
2.71 (2) |
| November |
2.85 (4) |
2.50 (1) |
3.10 (5) |
2.79 (3) |
2.59 (2) |
| December |
2.75 (4) |
2.31 (1) |
2.80 (5) |
2.37 (2) |
2.40 (3) |
| YEAR |
2.58 (4) |
2.46 (3) |
2.76 (5) |
2.43 (2) |
2.30 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2016 |
| January |
3.16 (5) |
2.98 (2) |
3.05 (3) |
3.06 (4) |
2.82 (1) |
| February |
2.70 (3) |
2.99 (5) |
2.95 (4) |
2.63 (2) |
2.47 (1) |
| March |
2.96 (4) |
2.77 (3) |
3.30 (5) |
2.51 (2) |
2.48 (1) |
| April |
2.69 (3) |
2.40 (1) |
3.15 (5) |
2.73 (4) |
2.52 (2) |
| May |
2.27 (3) |
2.66 (5) |
2.40 (4) |
1.99 (2) |
1.96 (1) |
| June |
2.88 (4) |
2.96 (5) |
2.16 (3) |
1.96 (1) |
2.04 (2) |
| July |
1.94 (T3) |
2.66 (5) |
1.94 (T3) |
1.85 (2) |
1.64 (1) |
| August |
2.69 (4) |
2.99 (5) |
2.35 (3) |
2.20 (2) |
1.95 (1) |
| September |
2.57 (5) |
2.47 (4) |
1.96 (3) |
1.89 (2) |
1.75 (1) |
| October |
1.88 (4) |
1.78 (3) |
1.96 (5) |
1.66 (2) |
1.53 (1) |
| November |
2.75 (5) |
2.49 (2) |
2.61 (4) |
2.56 (3) |
2.40 (1) |
| December |
2.92 (5) |
2.17 (1) |
2.79 (4) |
2.43 (3) |
2.32 (2) |
| YEAR |
2.62 (5) |
2.61 (4) |
2.55 (3) |
2.29 (2) |
2.16 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2017 |
| January |
3.47 (5) |
2.41 (1) |
3.01 (3) |
3.10 (4) |
2.79 (2) |
| February |
2.66 (3) |
2.76 (4) |
3.00 (5) |
2.65 (T1) |
2.65 (T1) |
| March |
2.85 (3) |
2.78 (T1) |
3.17 (5) |
2.98 (4) |
2.84 (2) |
| April |
2.12 (3) |
2.70 (5) |
2.40 (4) |
2.09 (2) |
2.07 (T1) |
| May |
2.16 (3) |
2.34 (4) |
2.37 (5) |
2.00 (2) |
1.95 (T1) |
| June |
1.85 (3) |
2.41 (5) |
2.02 (4) |
1.70 (2) |
1.66 (T1) |
| July |
1.37 (2) |
2.22 (5) |
1.46 (4) |
1.43 (3) |
1.27 (T1) |
| August |
1.60 (3) |
2.09 (5) |
1.73 (4) |
1.53 (2) |
1.48 (T1) |
| September |
1.45 (3) |
2.00 (5) |
1.61 (4) |
1.26 (2) |
1.14 (T1) |
| October |
2.29 (4) |
2.05 (3) |
2.86 (5) |
2.01 (2) |
1.89 (T1) |
| November |
3.02 (5) |
2.73 (3) |
2.92 (4) |
2.62 (2) |
2.54 (T1) |
| December |
3.40 (4) |
2.75 (3) |
3.53 (5) |
2.69 (T1) |
2.70 (2) |
| YEAR |
2.35 (3) |
2.43 (4) |
2.51 (5) |
2.17 (2) |
2.08 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2018 |
| January |
2.61 (5) |
2.49 (3) |
2.59 (4) |
2.22 (2) |
2.08 (1) |
| February |
4.26 (5) |
2.59 (1) |
3.95 (4) |
3.18 (3) |
2.84 (2) |
| March |
3.32 (5) |
2.46 (1) |
3.11 (4) |
2.75 (3) |
2.58 (2) |
| April |
2.79 (4) |
2.68 (3) |
3.02 (5) |
2.45 (2) |
2.35 (1) |
| May |
1.86 (3) |
2.22 (5) |
2.09 (4) |
1.81 (2) |
1.79 (1) |
| June |
1.77 (3) |
2.72 (5) |
1.85 (4) |
1.48 (T1) |
1.48 (T1) |
| July |
1.84 (4) |
2.58 (5) |
1.60 (2) |
1.67 (3) |
1.51 (1) |
| August |
1.72 (4) |
2.44 (5) |
1.57 (3) |
1.28 (1) |
1.38 (2) |
| September |
2.03 (T2) |
2.16 (5) |
2.03 (T2) |
2.05 (3) |
1.74 (1) |
| October |
2.41 (4) |
1.94 (1) |
2.90 (5) |
2.14 (3) |
2.05 (2) |
| November |
3.17 (4) |
2.63 (2) |
3.75 (5) |
2.54 (1) |
2.64 (3) |
| December |
2.59 (4) |
1.88 (T1) |
2.75 (5) |
2.11 (3) |
1.88 (T1) |
| YEAR |
2.53 (4) |
2.40 (3) |
2.60 (5) |
2.14 (2) |
2.03 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
National Blend of Models (NBM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2019 |
| January |
3.56 (5) |
2.29 (1) |
3.54 (4) |
-- |
2.60 (3) |
2.52 (2) |
| February |
4.30 (6) |
2.85 (1) |
3.08 (5) |
3.01 (4) |
2.96 (3) |
2.93 (2) |
| March |
2.82 (5) |
2.02 (T1) |
2.97 (6) |
2.47 (4) |
2.10 (3) |
2.02 (T1) |
| April |
2.99 (6) |
2.15 (1) |
2.79 (5) |
2.35 (3) |
2.36 (4) |
2.32 (2) |
| May |
2.36 (5) |
2.46 (6) |
1.92 (3) |
2.07 (4) |
1.88 (2) |
1.79 (1) |
| June |
1.76 (3) |
2.14 (5) |
2.32 (6) |
1.83 (4) |
1.73 (2) |
1.64 (1) |
| July |
1.77 (T4) |
2.34 (6) |
1.77 (T4) |
1.66 (3) |
1.64 (2) |
1.43 (1) |
| August |
1.99 (5) |
2.58 (6) |
1.81 (4) |
1.70 (2) |
1.72 (3) |
1.61 (1) |
| September |
2.87 (6) |
2.84 (4) |
2.86 (5) |
1.55 (1) |
1.67 (3) |
1.61 (2) |
| October |
2.53 (5) |
2.21 (2) |
2.78 (6) |
2.28 (4) |
2.22 (3) |
2.02 (1) |
| November |
2.83 (5) |
2.48 (3) |
2.93 (6) |
2.59 (4) |
2.47 (2) |
2.16 (1) |
| December |
2.82 (4) |
2.87 (T5) |
2.67 (2) |
2.87 (T5) |
2.72 (3) |
2.41 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.72 (6) |
2.43 (4) |
2.62 (5) |
2.22 (3) |
2.17 (2) |
2.04 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
National Blend of Models (NBM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2020 |
| January |
2.76 (4) |
2.22 (1) |
3.37 (6) |
2.78 (5) |
2.48 (3) |
2.34 (2) |
| February |
2.94 (6) |
2.43 (4) |
2.77 (5) |
2.40 (3) |
2.38 (2) |
2.12 (1) |
| March |
3.58 (6) |
2.65 (2) |
3.34 (5) |
2.53 (1) |
2.67 (4) |
2.66 (3) |
| April |
2.43 (5) |
2.04 (1) |
2.56 (6) |
2.42 (T3) |
2.42 (T3) |
2.32 (2) |
| May |
2.09 (4) |
2.56 (6) |
2.26 (5) |
2.08 (3) |
1.99 (2) |
1.97 (1) |
| June |
2.09 (4) |
2.45 (6) |
2.22 (5) |
1.85 (2) |
1.92 (3) |
1.80 (1) |
| July |
2.12 (5) |
2.96 (6) |
1.56 (4) |
1.33 (2) |
1.38 (3) |
1.32 (1) |
| August |
2.52 (5) |
2.80 (6) |
2.23 (4) |
2.08 (3) |
1.86 (2) |
1.76 (1) |
| September |
2.16 (2) |
2.00 (1) |
2.49 (4) |
2.51 (5) |
2.57 (6) |
2.19 (3) |
| October |
2.54 (5) |
2.48 (4) |
2.57 (6) |
2.26 (2) |
2.39 (3) |
2.21 (1) |
| November |
2.46 (5) |
2.23 (2) |
2.69 (6) |
2.35 (3) |
2.44 (4) |
2.08 (1) |
| December |
3.52 (5) |
2.75 (2) |
3.73 (6) |
2.84 (3) |
3.02 (4) |
2.61 (1) |
| YEAR |
2.60 (5) |
2.46 (4) |
2.65 (6) |
2.29 (T2) |
2.29 (T2) |
2.11 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
National Blend of Models (NBM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2021 |
| January |
3.21 (5) |
2.38 (1) |
3.14 (6) |
2.81 (3) |
2.85 (4) |
2.74 (2) |
| February |
3.74 (4) |
2.76 (1) |
5.13 (6) |
3.85 (5) |
3.67 (3) |
3.31 (2) |
| March |
3.40 (6) |
2.82 (3) |
3.37 (5) |
2.85 (4) |
2.73 (2) |
2.60 (1) |
| April |
2.69 (4) |
2.55 (3) |
2.98 (6) |
2.38 (2) |
2.78 (5) |
2.36 (1) |
| May |
1.97 (2) |
2.56 (5) |
2.64 (6) |
2.02 (3) |
2.09 (4) |
1.96 (1) |
| June |
1.69 (2) |
2.28 (6) |
1.75 (T3) |
1.77 (5) |
1.75 (T3) |
1.51 (1) |
| July |
1.75 (3) |
2.22 (6) |
1.67 (2) |
1.83 (4) |
1.84 (5) |
1.54 (1) |
| August |
1.96 (4) |
2.67 (6) |
2.06 (5) |
1.59 (2) |
1.72 (3) |
1.53 (1) |
| September |
1.72 (T1) |
2.22 (6) |
2.15 (5) |
1.90 (3) |
1.95 (3) |
1.72 (T1) |
| October |
2.01 (4) |
2.06 (5) |
2.51 (6) |
1.59 (1) |
1.67 (3) |
1.64 (2) |
| November |
2.07 (4) |
2.19 (5) |
2.41 (6) |
1.99 (3) |
1.91 (2) |
1.69 (1) |
| December |
2.96 (5) |
2.18 (1) |
3.75 (6) |
2.79 (4) |
2.66 (3) |
2.32 (2) |
| YEAR |
2.43 (5) |
2.41 (4) |
2.80 (6) |
2.28 (2) |
2.30 (3) |
2.08 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
National Blend of Models (NBM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2022 |
| January |
2.54 (2) |
2.66 (3) |
3.05 (6) |
2.83 (4) |
3.02 (5) |
2.39 (1) |
| February |
3.20 (4) |
3.14 (3) |
3.66 (6) |
3.42 (5) |
3.13 (2) |
2.80 (1) |
| March |
2.84 (T3) |
3.05 (5) |
3.16 (6) |
2.84 (T3) |
2.58 (2) |
2.43 (1) |
| April |
2.50 (5) |
2.41 (4) |
2.78 (6) |
2.16 (2) |
2.26 (3) |
2.14 (1) |
| May |
2.31 (4) |
3.32 (6) |
2.64 (5) |
1.93 (3) |
1.91 (T1) |
1.91 (T1) |
| June |
3.01 (5) |
3.33 (6) |
2.79 (4) |
1.99 (2) |
2.07 (3) |
1.97 (T1) |
| July |
2.92 (5) |
3.44 (6) |
2.65 (4) |
1.80 (T1) |
2.01 (3) |
1.81 (2) |
| August |
2.56 (5) |
2.99 (6) |
2.50 (4) |
1.74 (T1) |
2.24 (3) |
1.89 (2) |
| September |
2.24 (4) |
2.33 (5) |
3.28 (6) |
1.53 (T1) |
1.94 (3) |
1.83 (2) |
| October |
2.68 (5) |
1.82 (2) |
2.79 (6) |
2.04 (4) |
1.83 (3) |
1.78 (T1) |
| November |
2.52 (5) |
2.30 (4) |
2.53 (6) |
2.12 (2) |
2.19 (3) |
2.08 (T1) |
| December |
3.70 (6) |
2.27 (T1) |
3.44 (5) |
2.75 (3) |
3.03 (4) |
2.69 (2) |
| YEAR |
2.75 (T4) |
2.75 (T4) |
2.94 (6) |
2.26 (2) |
2.35 (3) |
2.14 (1) |
| |
| Month |
Global Forecast System (GFS) |
GFS LAMP (MAV)* |
North American Mesoscale (NAM) |
National Blend of Models (NBM) |
NWS Memphis (NWS) |
MWN Forecast |
| 2023 |
| January |
3.01 (6) |
2.31 (2) |
3.00 (5) |
2.38 (3) |
2.46 (4) |
2.25 (1) |
| February |
3.36 (6) |
2.84 (4) |
2.98 (5) |
2.71 (2) |
2.78 (3) |
2.36 (1) |
| March |
2.87 (5) |
1.97 (1) |
2.97 (6) |
2.29 (4) |
2.27 (3) |
2.13 (2) |
| April |
2.49 (5) |
2.45 (4) |
2.78 (6) |
2.21 (3) |
2.16 (2) |
2.12 (1) |
| May |
2.41 (4) |
2.54 (T5) |
2.54 (T5) |
2.13 (3) |
2.02 (2) |
1.97 (1) |
* GFS LAMP data only available for 25 hrs. All other forecasts extend out to 60 hours.
|
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