March arriving like a lion? Two potential severe weather events this week

MWN has been closely monitoring the
weather situation for Tuesday night into Wednesday for several days now as a
cold front brings a high chance for rain
and thunderstorms, and possibly a risk of severe weather. In the 24 hours since
our last update, computer models are beginning to come into better agreement, though some slight differences remain, and confidence is starting to increase
on our risk of severe weather with this system.

On Tuesday, a warm
front to our south will lift north towards the metro area. As it does,
showers are expected to break out Tuesday afternoon and continue into
early Tuesday evening until the warm front lifts north of the area. The threat of severe weather is expected to be very low with this
activity and even thunder may be hard to come by.

Meanwhile, showers
and thunderstorms will be organizing during the evening hours across
Arkansas and eastern Oklahoma along and ahead of a slow moving cold front. As
this activity progresses east-northeast toward the metro, likely after 9 PM and
especially during the overnight, the risk of seeing a few strong to severe
storms will begin to increase. As indicated yesterday, the amount of
instability that will be in place is in question, but strong wind dynamics will
be present. If any strong to severe storms do occur, the most likely threat is damaging winds with a secondary threat of hail. Though the threat for a tornado
is not zero, it is unlikely, and would be highly dependent on sufficient levels
of instability developing. As of this
morning, the Storm Prediction Center put the metro area back under a “Slight Risk”
for severe weather for the Tuesday night timeframe.

Storm Prediction Center’s outlook for Tuesday (focus for the metro is Tue night)

As computer models have slowed
the progress of the actual cold front, it appears it will move through the metro sometime around the late morning to early afternoon Wednesday. Thunderstorms
are expected to redevelop along the front sometime during this period, and if
they develop early enough to affect the metro, another threat for strong to
severe storms will exist. Instability levels may be greater during this round,
so a more robust threat for damaging winds and large hail could be in the works.
The threat for a tornado is unlikely in this round as well. The Storm
Prediction Center has the metro area under a “Slight Risk” for this period too.

NAM model forecast for noon Wednesday as cold front approaches metro area.

The front will pass east of the
area Wednesday afternoon, taking the threat of severe weather with it.
However, the front won’t be bringing any cooler air to the area. In fact, high
temperatures Thursday and Friday will remain in the 70s, which begins the setup for potentially another strong system on Friday, with yet another threat for severe weather possible. Though it’s too early to get into specifics, and shifts in
model data are likely in the days ahead, Friday’s severe weather threat could
be the more significant of the two.

European model forecast for Friday afternoon when another threat for severe weather may develop.

MWN is closely monitoring both
severe weather threats in the week ahead and those in the area are urged to
stay updated via the methods at the bottom of the post. Once again, we
emphasize that now is the time to make sure you are prepared for spring
severe weather season, which may be kicking off this week. Be sure to review
last week’s blog posts from severe weather awareness week for preparedness tips.