February 2016 Climate Data and Forecast Accuracy

February Recap

After a very warm start to the winter, then an “average” January, February was back into the warmth with temperatures that averaged over 2.5° above normal. February precipitation was also wetter than average after a drier January, though no winter precipitation occurred during the month. Three days had precipitation totals over 1.5″ with spotty flash flooding occurring on the 2nd. No severe weather occurred during the month. The end of February also marked the end of meteorological winter with temperatures averaging much above normal and precipitation slightly below normal.

Winter Recap

With Leap Day in the rearview mirror, it brings us to the end of meteorological winter, defined as December-February. The winter of 2015-’16 ended up very warm with slightly below normal rainfall and well below normal snowfall (at least at the official recording station at Memphis International Airport). Temperatures averaged 47.8°, which was 4.4° above the long-term average and 7th warmest on record dating back to 1875. Precipitation totaled 12.62″, which was 1.49″ below average. Snowfall was just 0.3″ at the airport (though 3″+ occurred not far north in Tipton County). Normal snowfall in Memphis is 3.4″, so this winter was 91% below normal.

Memphis International Airport, Memphis, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 48.1 degrees (2.6 degrees above average)
Average high temperature: 57.3 degrees (2.6 degrees above average)
Average low temperature: 38.9 degrees (2.6 degrees above average)
Warmest temperature: 75 degrees (2nd)
Coolest temperature: 24 degrees (10th)
Records set or tied: Record high set on February 2nd (75°).
Comments: Five days reached 70° or higher in February.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 5.58″ (1.19″ above average)
Days with measurable precipitation: 9 (0.2 days below normal)
Wettest 24-hour period: 1.76″ (14th-15th)
Total Snowfall: None
Records set or tied: None
Comments: Three days recorded more than 1.50″ of rain.

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: Northwest/45 mph (25th)
Average wind: 9.0 mph
Average relative humidity: N/A
Average sky cover: N/A

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Memphis International Airport.

Cirrus Weather Solutions / MemphisWeather.net, Bartlett, TN

Temperature
Average temperature: 46.4 degrees
Average high temperature: 57.1 degrees
Average low temperature: 36.6 degrees
Warmest temperature: 74.0 degrees (2nd)
Coolest temperature: 19.9 degrees (10th)
Comments: None.

Precipitation
Monthly total: 5.07″ (automated rain gauge), 5.48″ (manual CoCoRaHS rain gauge)
Days with measurable precipitation: 9
Wettest date: 1.82″ (23rd) (via automated gauge)
Total Snowfall: None
Comments: None

Miscellaneous
Peak wind: 27 mph (19th)
Average relative humidity: 70%

Click here for a daily statistical recap for Bartlett, TN.

MWN Forecast Accuracy

MWN average temperature error: 2.47 degrees
MWN forecast temperatures within 2 degrees of actual: 57%
MWN average dewpoint error: 2.77 degrees
MWN forecast dewpoints within 2 degrees of actual: 58%

MWN’s forecasts extend out five periods (2.5 days, or roughly 60 hours). Historical accuracy statistics can be found here.

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