Storms and heat and humidity…Summer in full swing.

The Big Picture

GFS model run Monday-Friday PM. Attention should be brought to the strong high that remains locked over the Atlantic. (Tropical Tidbits)

The typical summer time pattern of afternoon pop-up storms is going to come into full swing over the next few days. This is thanks to a strong high building up over the Atlantic, working to pump Gulf Moisture into the Mid-South (and much of the eastern US). With so much moisture available, combined with the ample day-time heating brought with the summer, it is no doubt that afternoon storms are possible each day. A weak front mid week won’t bring a temperature change, but it will bring an increase in rain chances. Also, just to make things a little worse, more moisture being brought in means that there will be more humid conditions, so heat indices through this week will be near the triple digits every day…so much for that little streak last week when we had dewpoints in the 60s and it was slightly less humid!

Today’s Forecast

For this afternoon, there is the chance of a few pop-up storms. The coverage should not be too widespread (that will be coming Tuesday). It is a tough call to know where storms will pop-up today since there are no major boundaries to fire-off convection. The good news with these storms is that they should provide some heat relief if anyone is lucky enough to catch one. Highs this afternoon top-off in the mid 90s but heat indices will be near 100. Tonight, any isolated storms left over from the evening will be quickly wrapping up with a few clouds hanging on. Low of 75.

Tuesday

Rain chances increase for Tuesday and Tuesday night. A weak front will be creeping towards the Mid-South during the day. Available conditions that these storms will have to work off of do bring the concern of some stronger storms for the Memphis area. Right now, the greatest risks with these storms will be damaging winds and small hail (along with heavy rain and frequent lightning). Convective development will take place ahead of the front moving and will last through the afternoon into Tuesday evening. This has lead to the Storm Prediction Center issuing a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) for severe weather that includes Memphis. What we expect is a chance of a few isolated showers and storms late in the morning, then storm chances increase in the afternoon and can last into the evening. A few storms could bring with them the threats listed earlier and may warrant a few Severe Thunderstorm Warnings. Highs for Tuesday will only climb into the low 90s, but the humidity will be the real issue, keeping heat indices near 100. Meanwhile, Tuesday night shower and storm activity decreases as skies remain partly cloudy but a low chance of rain lingers overnight with the front nearby. Temps dip down to the mid 70s.

Tuesday SPC Outlook that highlights Memphis under a marginal risk. (Storm Prediction Center)

Tuesday and Wednesday forecasts United States. (National Weather Service)

Wednesday

With the front still lingering, showers and storms will again develop for Wednesday; however, the severe threat decreases. Convection will start to fire off during the morning and last through the afternoon into the evening. Shower and storm activity will be more widespread like Tuesday, rather than a typical summer-time afternoon. Highs continue to drop slightly since Wednesday we top off only around 90. As always though, the humidity gets us and we will still feel like the upper 90s. Wednesday night we again have a low in the mid 70s with partly cloudy skies that should turn to clear by the early morning.

Thursday and Friday

After we get past Wednesday, the rest of the work week dries up some, but not fully. Both days we see the chance for isolated pop-up showers and storms in the afternoons (not on the same scale as what we will have Tuesday/Wednesday). The front from Tuesday/Wednesday by this point has moved out and our highs start to climb. Thursday we see highs in the lower 90’s and Friday we return to the mid 90’s. Friday, with highs back in the 90s, combining with the humidity, heat indices will be climbing to the 100 mark again. Night time lows will be remaining in the mid 70s with partly cloudy-mostly clear skies.

The Weekend

The story for next weekend is a broken record with conditions almost exactly like Thursday and Friday. Highs will be locked in the mid 90s and lows each night will still be in the mid 70s. With sufficient pull from the Gulf, humidity will remain high through the weekend and we continue to see the chance for isolated pop-up storms each afternoon. Heat indices, as you can probably guess, will still be in the upper 90s to near 100.

Reggie Roakes
MWN Meteorologist Intern

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