The autumnal equinox occurs Sunday morning at 7:44am marking the official start of fall. But this weekend forecast sure doesn’t feel like it! With afternoon humidity levels above 50% and temperatures reaching 90 degrees under partly sunny skies, we’re near seasonal norms for late August while the calendar shows mid-September!
This is not unusual though, as our average last occurrence of 90 degrees is September 19, and we do have a major pattern shift just around the corner that will bring fall temperatures! As for this weekend, we’ll see a low chance of rain this afternoon, potentially including a couple of thunderstorms, but will back to dry weather Sunday and most of Monday as temperatures continue to reach near 90 degrees in the afternoons. Morning lows will be in the 70s with muggy air in place across the metro.
Early Tuesday is when we welcome the arrival of the cold front that heralds the arrival of cooler and less humid weather. Ahead of it, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected Monday night with showers potentially continuing into early Tuesday. Severe weather chances are low, mainly due to a lack of unstable air as the timing of the front will be in the cooler hours of the day.
Behind the front, global weather models depart from their consistency of the next several days and forecast confidence drops. Behind the front, we should see a couple of dry and cooler days with highs near 80 and morning lows in the 60s. However, there are hints that rain chances may tick up a bit mid-week, but still with the cooler temperatures.
By mid to late week, all eyes will be on the Gulf of Mexico. The National Hurricane Center has identified an area in the southern Gulf where conditions are favorable for development of a tropical system in the coming days. As the system has yet to form, there are various potential paths it could take once it organizes. However, it appears the overall pattern would indicate areas along the northern Gulf are most favored for a tropical landfall late in the week or next weekend. We’ll be watching it closely in case it takes a more westerly track into Louisiana or eastern Texas, which might mean some rain locally. Otherwise, a Florida landfall would mean it should slide by to our southeast and miss the Mid-South.
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist
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