According to AAA, a record 80 million people will travel for Thanksgiving this year. One of the biggest travel headaches, especially for those who are flying – but also those on the roads – can be inclement weather.
As fall starts turns to winter in the northern United States, snow and wind can disrupt everything from flight schedules to road conditions. Where it’s a bit warmer down south, wet streets can snarl already heavy traffic. This year looks to be no exception.
Locally, temperatures fall and rain expected mid-week
Starting close to home, Thanksgiving week will feature two cold fronts – one more impactful than the other. Late Monday afternoon, a quick-hitting front will deliver scattered showers to the region. Though the rain and some gusty wind are not likely to cause too many issues, temperatures will drop to the mid 50s for highs Tuesday and Wednesday after reaching 70 degrees Monday afternoon.
By Wednesday afternoon, rain chances climb as a more potent front and low pressure center approach. Wednesday night looks wet, though showers should taper off by Thanksgiving morning. This front will usher in even colder air going into the weekend. Thanksgiving high temperatures will be in the mid 50s, but Canadian air moves in Thursday night, bringing below freezing temperatures for most of us. Black Friday into the weekend looks dry with the coldest airmass Memphis has seen since late January!
Travelers find a cornucopia of weather concerns
For those leaving the Mid-South for the holiday, potential travel issues early in the week will include rain and snow for the west coast and intermountain west, as another in a series of strong storms moves out of the Pacific Ocean. As that system moves east, snow will accumulate in the Rocky Mountains Tuesday into Wednesday, making for ideal ski conditions. Denver could see minor snow accumulation mixed with rain.
That system races quickly through the central U.S. Wednesday, reaching the upper Ohio Valley by Wednesday night and continuing into the northeast Thanksgiving morning with gusty wind, areas of heavy rain, and light snow. Expect some light snow mixed with rain for Chicago and Indianapolis.
The heaviest snow accumulation is likely to be found downwind of the Great Lakes and across northern and western New York into New England, where a foot of accumulation is probable in some areas. Fortunately for those traveling via air, precipitation at the major hub cities on the east coast will remain in liquid form, though delays are still possible.
Rain and scattered thunderstorms will also spread across much of the southeast U.S. and into the Mid-Atlantic, including Washington, D.C., Wednesday night into Thursday, though severe weather potential for the Deep South appears low at this time for places like Birmingham and Atlanta.
Heading home: cold, but drier conditions
By the weekend, most of the nation will be dry with well below average temperatures as Arctic high pressure builds in behind the late-week system. A very strong low pressure center over southeast Canada will mean breezy conditions for most of the northeastern quarter of the country, along with scattered snow showers that could extend as far south as the Ohio Valley.
The bottom line: if you are traveling this week, pack your patience and be prepared for potential delays, and as always when flying, stay in touch with your airline.
Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist
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