Arctic airmass trails Sunday’s stormy front

The Mid-South will experience weather whiplash over the next 36 hours as a significant cold front ushers in the coldest air of the season this week.

Wet and stormy Sunday

As low pressure approaches from the west, a large winter storm will move east across the Missouri and Ohio River Valleys into the Mid-Atlantic, dropping a swath of heavy snow – with significant icing along its southern flank – Sunday into Monday. Fortunately for Memphis, that winter weather remains well to the north, with the southern edge of the ice forecast to ride the Tennessee-Kentucky line.

However, the Mid-South will be positioned in the “warm sector” of the storm system, which means showers and thunderstorms for the region. A line of severe storms will accompany this system, though the strongest storms are likely to remain to our south. Strong wind throughout the atmosphere, including gusts to 30 mph at the surface, will make for a generally windy day.

A strong cold front will tap into that windy and warm air (as our temperatures near 60 degrees by late afternoon), producing a line of storms that could sport some gusts to 50-60 mph as it passes through between 4:00-8:00pm.

Arctic blast could mean icy patches and light snow Monday morning

Once the storms pass, temperatures plummet overnight, dropping more than 30 degrees on gusty westerly wind, to the upper 20s by sunrise Monday morning. That means heading back to work – and kids to school following their holiday break – with wind chills in the mid-teens. Bundle them up tight!

The rapid onset of sub-freezing air could result in minor hazards on local roads Monday morning. While the rain will be long gone, and strong wind overnight will help dry most streets, some areas of shallow standing water could “flash freeze.” Patchy black ice would result, especially on secondary roadways or possibly elevated roads and bridges, though a widespread freeze on interstates and major roads is not currently expected.

The other “fly in the ointment” for Monday morning will be the potential for light snow wrapping around the departing low pressure area. The pre-dawn to mid-morning hours look like the window of opportunity, though amounts would be very light. With the aforementioned strong wind, falling snow would likely make it look more like a snow globe than do much harm. A light dusting on bare ground is possible.

Coldest air of the season this week

Once any flurries move out, we’ll be dealing with very cold air, but dry conditions for a few days. In general, morning low temperatures will range from 20-25 degrees – not necessarily #StupidCold by historical standards. But high temperatures will only climb into the low to middle 30s in the afternoons.

While perhaps not quite cold enough to result in widespread freezing pipes, and boil water advisories, as we saw the past three winters, the duration of the sub-freezing air might cause some problems for pipes with direct exposure to outside air. Make sure your neighbors and family are staying warm, outdoor plants are brought in, exposed pipes are insulated or covered, and faucets on exterior walls are dripping overnight.

As we near the end of the week, we’ll be carefully monitoring the easterly track of a potential “Gulf low” along coastal areas to our south. The track of that low, amount of moisture in place, and forecast temperatures over our area will all be key. If ingredients can come together (which is a bit too early to predict now), we may be looking at a late week winter storm. More on that as we get into next week!

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist


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