March arrived like a lion – will it go out like a camel?

The early summer-like
weather pattern has continued across the Mid-South much of this week, as
temperatures remain well above normal. In fact, as previously blogged, the
80-degree weather that’s persisted much of this month will guarantee March ends
as the warmest on record (hence the camel reference…), averaging about 10 degrees above normal for the month! In addition, we’re also watching a couple of weather systems over the next few days that will bring increased rain chances, as well
as a subtle cool-down next week.

The first system will
approach the region from the southwest Friday, bringing a risk for scattered
showers and thunderstorms. The upper level disturbance responsible for the rain
chances looks most likely to track just south of the metro area, meaning areas
in Mississippi will have the best risk to get wet, though it will be possible
anywhere. Organized severe weather is not expected, but a few of the storms
could contain gusty winds as well as heavy rainfall and lightning. Temperatures
Friday may be a touch cooler due to the increased clouds, probably holding just
below 80 degrees.

WRF model for 1 PM Friday shows scattered t’storms, but mostly over MS

Rain chances decrease
again Friday night and Saturday, as the upper level system passes to our east,
and a weak front remains stalled just to our northwest. A rogue shower or thunderstorm
is not out of the question, but most areas will remain dry, and temperatures
Saturday will rebound to the lower 80s.

On Sunday, April may be
welcomed in on a downright hot note as high pressure strengthens
overhead.  Temperatures are likely to
respond and readings could very well reach into record territory. Mid 80s are a very good
bet, and if maximum heating is reached, numbers may even approach 90 degrees in
isolated areas! That’s not an April fool’s joke! Meanwhile, a new storm system
will begin to organize over the Rocky Mountain States, poised to affect our
area sometime between Monday and Tuesday.

GFS model temperatures for Sunday afternoon, showing widespread 80s, with upper 80s possible

Confidence decreases a
good bit on the outcome of this next system, as computer models are in very
different places on how and where this system tracks in relation to our area. One
model “camp” takes the system well north of the Mid-South, with a trailing cold
front passing through quickly Monday night. Meanwhile, another “camp” takes the
core of the system right over the Mid-South, and is also much slower in
clearing our region, taking until late Tuesday.

European model – with low pressure in Canada and cold front passing through the Mid-South Monday night

Both potential outcomes appear
as if they will bring decent if not high chances for rain and thunderstorms to
the Memphis metro, but the exact range of impacts is still to be determined until better agreement is reached. For now, MemphisWeather.Net is learning toward the
former solution above, with a round of thunderstorms likely with a cold front’s
passage Monday night, but this is subject to change. We will also be watching
this system for the possibility of severe weather, as sufficient instability
and wind dynamics may come into place near our area for the first time in
several weeks.  With the possibility of severe weather, now is a good time to check out StormWatch+, our newest addition to the MemphisWeather.net mobile app for iPhone and Android.  StormWatch+ bring personalized severe weather alerts to the palm of your hand!

Following this system, it
appears a slight cool-down may be in store for the area, with temperatures
returning to the 70s, closer to normal levels. As of now, any more significant
cool snap looks unlikely for the foreseeable future.

–Kevin Terry,
MemphisWeather.Net