2026 Atlantic hurricane season and possible effects on the Mid-South

The Mid-South is only occasionally affected by the remnants of tropical systems, with the most likely impacts coming from systems that move north from the Gulf. However, many Mid-Southerners have interests along the coast – including planned vacations, beach homes, or relatives and friends that live in hurricane-prone areas. So as we approach hurricane season, which officially starts on June 1 and continues through the end of November, the outlook is frequently a topic of conversation.

Recapping the 2025 season

The 2025 Atlantic season was feast or famine with fewer than average named tropical cyclones (13), but three hurricanes (of five total) that reached category 5 strength (157+ mph sustained wind), the second most on record. However, in the United States, direct impacts were fortunately very limited. For the first time since 2015, no hurricanes struck the continental U.S., although Tropical Storm Chantal made landfall in South Carolina in July, mostly bringing a localized flooding threat.

Factors affecting the 2026 season

Looking ahead to the 2026 season, one of the primary factors that is expected to affect the Atlantic hurricane season is a developing El Niño. In fact, most long-range model guidance now anticipates a “Super El Niño,” one that is unusually strong. El Niño is a natural climate cycle in which the water in the equatorial eastern Pacific (off the coast of South America) is warmer than average due to weakened trade winds across the Pacific Ocean. Its state (El Niño, La Niña, or neither) can have global effects on the weather, including the Atlantic tropics.

El Niño, and particularly strong versions of it, are known to act as a suppressant to Atlantic storms. This is due to increased wind shear, as wind blows stronger at the upper levels of the atmosphere over favored hurricane tracks, as well as increased atmospheric stability that acts as a lid on thunderstorm development. The counter to these negative factors is that ocean temperatures (particularly in the western Atlantic close to the U.S.) remain warmer than normal, so where storms can form, they could become powerful quickly.

What to expect from the 2026 hurricane season

While many organizations issue tropical outlooks, there are two with a long and fairly accurate track record. The long-time tropical forecast experts at Colorado State University (CSU) are predicting a below average hurricane season with 13 named storms, six hurricanes, and two major hurricanes. A typical season averages 14.4 storms, 7.2 hurricanes and 3.2 majors. A “named storm” is one which develops tropical characteristics and attains maximum sustained wind of at least 39 mph, making it a Tropical Storm.

Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) is another parameter CSU forecasts, which synthesizes storm duration and strength into a single value. Stronger storms that last longer contribute to higher ACE values. Their forecast ACE of 90 units is about 75% of a typical season.

The forecast from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is also eagerly anticipated each year. NOAA also predicts a below normal season, with only a 10% chance that activity in the Atlantic basin will be above average. Government forecasters expect 8-14 named storms, 3-6 of which will become hurricanes, and 1-3 major hurricanes. Their confidence level in this forecast is 70%.

As always, it is important to remember that “it only takes one.” A prime example is from 1992, when Hurricane Andrew devastated portions of Miami-Dade County as a category 5 storm, becoming the costliest U.S. landfall until Katrina in 2005. Overall though, 1992 was a very quiet hurricane season.

Potential effects on the Mid-South

Returning closer to home, although it is somewhat rare, remnants of tropical systems can occasionally pass near the Mid-South, often after making landfall along the central Gulf coast and moving north. Frequently the local impacts are limited to strong, gusty wind and heavy rain, which often can be beneficial during a hot and dry summer. If the remnant low pressure center moves to our west over Arkansas, “spin-up” tornadoes can result from tropical thunderstorms in the area.

Historical data on tropical system tracks going back to 1950 reveals that 15 storms have passed within 50 miles of Memphis while still categorized as a tropical system. Most recently, the remnants of Hurricane Francine moved into the Delta region south of Memphis, bringing a couple days of rain in mid-September 2024.

Also, Post-Tropical Storm Olga passed over the region in late October 2019, merging with a cold front and producing widespread wind damage across Mississippi into western and middle Tennessee east of the Memphis metro. Widespread rainfall accompanied the remnants of Harvey in 2017 and Isaac in 2012, while the remnants of Hurricane Katrina in 2005 passed 75 miles east of Memphis, producing strong wind and heavy rain locally.

However, of the 15 storms that moved near Memphis since 1950, only four occurred in an El Niño year and only one occurred since Camille in 1969. Will the global pattern protect the Mid-South again this year? Only time will tell.

Erik Proseus
MWN Meteorologist


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